The Minnesota Vikings (5-8) and Dallas Cowboys (6-6-1) will meet in the Week 15 edition of Sunday Night Football on December 14. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites over the Vikings on the spread (Cowboys -5.5), with the over/under set at 47.5 total points. Dallas is a -270 favorite to win outright, while Minnesota is +210 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Sunday Night Football preview and Vikings vs Cowboys prediction for tonight.
Vikings vs Cowboys Prediction
- Vikings vs Cowboys pick: Vikings +5.5 (-110)
My Vikings vs Cowboys best bet is on Minnesota to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Vikings vs Cowboys Odds
| Vikings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Vikings vs Cowboys Sunday Night Football Preview
Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview: Improved O-Line for McCarthy
Note: All defense-vs.-position data is from Pro-Football-Reference. All other data is via FTN unless otherwise noted.
Even with the disastrous Max Brosmer 26-0 shutout loss included in their numbers, the Vikings (23rd) sit just four spots behind the Cowboys (19th) in overall DVOA.
In Weighted DVOA, which weights recent games more heavily, the gap shrinks to one: Dallas 20th, Minnesota 21st. The Vikings are ninth in both defense and special teams, and things are looking up for their 29th-ranked offense.
Last week, J.J. McCarthy completed a career-high 69.6% of his passes and tossed three touchdowns while not turning the ball over in a 31-0 shutout of Washington.
It's easy to chalk it entirely up to a Washington defense that ranks 27th in defensive DVOA and 29th against the pass, but there were other factors at play.
For the first time all season, the Vikings fielded their preferred starting five on the offensive line — LT Christian Darrisaw, LG Donovan Jackson, C Ryan Kelly, RG Will Fries, and RT Brian O'Neill — one of the best groups in the NFL.
Kelly ranks second among centers with an 82.8 PFF grade, O'Neill (81.1) is 11th among 81 tackles, and all five grade out as above-average pass-blockers. Kevin O'Connell also used a more diverse set of personnel groupings rather than relying on his signature 11 personnel.
However, even if we lay the blame entirely on Washington's defense, that's also good news for the Vikings, because as bad as Washington is, the Cowboys are just as bad — in fact, clocking in worse than Washington in defensive DVOA overall (31st) and against the pass (30th).
The Cowboysare dead last in passing yards allowed per game (255.2), tied for last in passing TDs allowed (29), and second-to-last in Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt (7.7).
Dallas is also dead last in EPA allowed versus 11 personnel (103.67) according to SumerSports.com, and ranks 30th in DVOA vs. WR1s.
So, this is a spot where O'Connell may not even have to stray from his preferred 11 personnel looks — and one where the Vikings figure to finally be able to get Justin Jefferson going after the All-Pro receiver tallied just four receptions for 15 yards over the past two games.
McCarthy has struggled mightily, for sure, but context is needed as well. He's been unlucky to have his receivers drop 6.6% of his passes, fourth-highest of 39 qualified quarterbacks.
He has started multiple games without his WR2 (Jordan Addison), left tackle (Darrisaw), and center (Kelly).
His two worst starts came against Green Bay and Atlanta, which are two of the league's better pass defenses. he has won 2-of-3 road games, and the combined record of his road opponents is 26-12-1.
Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview: Tough Game for Prescott
Defensively, the Vikings have been sneaky-good, especially as of late. Brian Flores' defense held each of its last three opponents under 300 total yards — well below their respective season averages.
- Week 12: GB 288 total yards (344.7 vs. all others)
- Week 13: SEA 219 total yards (364.7 vs. all others)
- Week 14: WAS 206 total yards (337.6 vs. all others)
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott's EPA dips slightly when blitzed (0.169) compared to when not blitzed (0.204), and Flores, of course, is known for his exotic, blitz-happy approach, sending extra rushers at the NFL's highest rate (49.3%).
Prescott will be without left tackle Tyler Guyton (ankle) for the third straight game. Prescott has been pressured 38 times over the past two games, according to PFF, the most pressures he's incurred over a two-game span all season, including a season-high 22 last week against Detroit.
Fill-in Nathan Thomas grades as the worst left tackle in the game according to PFF, earning a 36.2 overall grade (81st of 81 qualified tackles) and a 29.2 pass-blocking grade (80th of 80).
Tight end Jake Ferguson (calf) missed one practice and was limited in the other two, so the Cowboys could be vulnerable to pressure off the edge.
The Vikings will have their hands full with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
However, they have been stout versus wide receivers because they play a lot of zone behind their blitzes, taking pressure off cornerbacks Isaiah Rodgers (68.8 PFF, 31st of 109), Fabian Moreau (62.2, N/R), and Byron Murphy Jr. (51.0, 90th).
The Vikings rank fourth against wide receivers in receiving yards per game allowed (118.7) and tied for sixth in touchdowns allowed (0.62).
Lamb and Pickens will undoubtedly get theirs, but the Vikings are more capable than most of keeping a duo that has combined for 11 touchdowns out of the end zone.
Minnesota ranks third in red-zone defense (46.2%) and hasn't allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver since Week 9 (Jameson Williams).
They also haven't allowed a touchdown to a tight end since Week 10 (Mark Andrews), so this could end up being a big Javonte Williams game.
Nevertheless, if the Vikings can get red-zone stops, it positions them to play with a lead and not overextend McCarthy against a beatable defense.
Vikings vs Cowboys Prediction, Betting Analysis
According to our Bet Labs data, road underdogs by at least a field goal but not more than one possession — i.e., +3 to +8 — are 121-81-7 (60%) ATS in Weeks 15-16 since 2006.
The Vikings are 2-1 straight-up and ATS on the road with McCarthy, including an upset of Detroit as a +9.5 'dog.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys defense is preventing them from winning by a margin. Dallas is 6-6-1, and of its six wins, only three have come by more than three points, meaning the Cowboys cover this number in only 3-of-13 games.
At home, the Cowboys haven't been nearly as dominant as in years past, with only one win by more than three points being a 44-22 drubbing of the Commanders in Week 7 — a team the Vikings spanked by an even greater 31-point margin last week.
While the Cowboys' 31-28 win at home over the Chiefs in Week 12 was impressive, it was also another example of them failing to win by a large margin.
Their resume in Jerry World also includes giving up 450 yards to Russell Wilson and needing overtime to beat the Giants by three back in Week 2, spotting the Eagles' broken offense a 21-0 lead before rallying to win by three in Week 13, and serving up Jacoby's Brissett lone win in eight starts as a Cardinal back in Week 9.
Pick: Vikings +5.5 (-110, bet365)
Spread
As mentioned, I'm backing the Vikings +5.5.
Moneyline
Vikings or nothing, but Dallas has three 3-point wins and a tie this season. So, I prefer the spread.
Over/Under
Lean under with Minnesota going with more heavy personnel and playing stingy defense, but it's been bet down, and Dallas' defense can make any game a shootout.
Vikings vs Cowboys Parlay Picks
- Javonte Williams anytime TD (-135 DK), 2+ TDs (+425 DK): The Vikings haven't allowed a WR TD since Week 9 or a TE TD since Week 10. Over the past seven games, Minnesota has allowed more anytime TDs to RB (7) than WR (3), TE (3), and QB (0) combined.
- Justin Jefferson anytime TD (+180 DK): The Cowboys are allowing the most TD per game to WRs (1.69).
- J.J. McCarthy 2+ passing TDs (+158 DK): McCarthy has thrown 2+ in 3-of-7 starts, but Dallas has given up 2+ in 8-of-13 and has allowed a league-high 29 passing TDs.
- Parlay: MIN +5.5, Williams TD -135, Jefferson TD +180, McCarthy 2+ pass TDs (+1200 DK)
Others worth considering:
- Justin Jefferson receiving overs: The Cowboys are 30th in DVOA vs. WR1s.
- Javonte Williams receiving unders: Minnesota allows the fewest receiving yards per game (19.5) and third-fewest receptions per game (3.31) to running backs. Williams has only five receptions for 14 yards all season versus the blitz.
- George Pickens anytime TD: Leads Cowboys with four receiving TDs versus the blitz while CeeDee Lamb has a ton of yards. With Ferguson banged up, Pickens is the most likely Dallas pass-catcher to score.
- J.J. McCarthy 230+ passing yards (+203 DK): McCarthy has only done it once, but the Cowboys have allowed 230+ in 10-of-13.
- Long shot: Hunter Luepke TD (+1300): His lone TD came on a catch against the blitz, and he could be on the field more to pass protect and end up sneaking out for another one.
