NFL Pro Bowl Over/Under Moving Thanks to Early Sharp Action

NFL Pro Bowl Over/Under Moving Thanks to Early Sharp Action article feature image
Credit:

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports.

  • Lines for the 2019 NFL Pro Bowl opened on Thursday afternoon, and it didn't take long for sharp bettors to move the over/under.
  • After opening at 60 at most books, the total dropped all the way to 55 by Thursday night.
  • We analyze this line movement and compare it to closing over/unders for previous Pro Bowls.

On Thursday afternoon, lines for the 2019 NFL Pro Bowl were released. For those unaware, the Pro Bowl is an unpopular sporting event held the week before the Super Bowl.

With the big game on most normal folks’ minds, the fact that Pro Bowl odds were released may have gone unnoticed by many. If you were one of them, then you missed some serious line movement.

Sharp bettors may be watching the game, they may not be. I’m not too sure, but I do know they have bet on it.

The first book to hit the market posted the over/under at 64.5 at approximately 2:15 p.m. ET on Thursday. About 20 minutes later, other books opened at 60. That’s not the sharp action, it’s just a market adjustment.

The line stuck at 60 for more than an hour, but then began to move quite drastically. By 9:15 p.m. ET, it was all the way down to 55, which is where it sits as of Friday morning.

Per The Action Network’s betting percentages, just 21% of bettors are on the under, but they account for 47% of the cash. There was also a reverse line move triggered on the under by Sports Insights’ Bet Signals.

If you think this is lower than usual, you’d be right. This over/under is significantly lower than ones in recent years. Here are the past five:

  • 2018: Closed 66.5, 47 points scored
  • 2017: Closed 80, 33 points scored
  • 2016: Closed 74.5, 76 points scored
  • 2015: Closed 68.5, 60 points scored
  • 2014: Closed 89, 43 points scored

An over/under of 89? Eighty freaking nine? It looks like those totals are a thing of the past for now. The under has gone 4-1 in the past five Pro Bowls, covering by an average of 23.9 points. That’s one heck of a small sample size for you right there.

You know what’s going to happen now, though, right? Buyback.

If I could bet on whether this total closes higher than 55, I would, but I don’t believe that option exists. I’m shocked it’s not among the hundreds of prop options for the Super Bowl, either.