Happy NFL Thanksgiving! Turkey Day means family, food, football … and potential fiscal gains.
Buckle up — or maybe loosen that belt — and let's grab a side for all three Thanksgiving games — Packers vs Lions, Chiefs vs Cowboys, Bengals vs Ravens — in addition to a bevy of props on stud players like Jahmyr Gibbs, Ja'Marr Chase, Rashee Rice, Patrick Mahomes and more! Also, it wouldn't be one of my stories without some parlays.
Let's eat.
NFL Thanksgiving Predictions
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Packers vs Lions Spread Prediction
Green Bay defeated Detroit way back in the Week 1 season opener, but the Lions won six of the previous seven in this division rivalry, and this looks a great spot for them to add to their recent dominance.
The Lions are just a little bit better at, well, mostly everything.
Detroit is a couple spots better by DVOA on both offense and defense, and well ahead in special teams. The Lions are also healthier right now, with Green Bay's offense particularly banged up and struggling to find a rhythm with Tucker Kraft out, the receiving corps shorthanded, and Josh Jacobs injured.
We know both of these teams want to run the ball, but right now, Detroit has the advantage both ways to that end.
The Lions rank 8th in Rushing DVOA offensively, top quarter of the league, while the Packers run defense sits right at league average (16th). Meanwhile, Green Bay sits at 17th in Rushing DVOA on offense, while the Lions are again top 10 in 9th.
That's not a great equation for Packers bettors when we know how run-heavy both offenses prefer to skew, especially with so much of the Packers run game typically flowing through Jacobs and his status unclear.
Detroit's offense can also pick at other Green Bay defensive weaknesses.
The Packers allow opponents to access the middle of the field with relative frequency — they rank 27th in EPA per play defending that part of the field, but the Lions attack that area the second most of any team and rank top 10 in EPA per play. Green Bay's defense also funnels passes short, and that's where Detroit lives, top five in frequency and No. 1 in EPA per play.
Yes, that sound you just heard was Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs attacking in space all Thanksgiving long.
These are the top two defenses at home this season, but, of course, only Detroit is at home. The Lions rank first by DVOA at Ford Field, while the Packers drop all the way to 22nd on the road, fringe bottom 10.
Jared Goff continues to be nearly invincible indoors with the Lions, now 36-14-1 (72%) against the spread (ATS) in his career.
On Thanksgiving, the trends say to fade the Lions as underdogs (4-10 ATS over the past two decades) but back them as favorites at 4-2 ATS, covering by 6.6 PPG. Non-Cowboys favorites on Thanksgiving are 31-11 ATS, covering 74% of the time.
It's a gift to get this line below a field goal. Detroit is the better side, and we love sides on Thanksgiving.
Detroit's last 10 wins have been by six or more points, so I wouldn't be afraid to back Lions -3 if it gets back there, but I'm happy to take Lions -2.5 below the key number.
David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown; Rush Attempts
I wanted Lions RB overs last week against the Giants; I leaned Jahmyr Gibbs between the two options, but didn't pull the trigger and missed out on a monster day.
It sure looks like Gibbs is the guy now with Dan Campbell calling plays — and only five and six carries for David Montgomery the past two weeks — but be careful.
Montgomery's snaps are still there, but his power rushing attack hasn't fit the style of attack as well; Gibbs' snaps are indeed up a bit, but that looks more like a symptom of increased 21 personnel, with two backs on the field and Sam LaPorta hurt.
Last week looked like a Gibbs week because the Giants are so bad defending outside runs — and boy, did we see it! — but the Lions are actually better running inside, top eight by EPA per play versus bottom eight outside. The Packers are also far worse defending inside runs, bottom 10 versus fringe top-five outside.
That could make this more of a Montgomery game, and he's been the guy against the Packers. Even with Gibbs on the team, Montgomery has racked up 11, 14, 15, 17 and 32 carries in five games against Green Bay, averaging 17.8 carries for 68 yards.
It's volume I want for Monty, but 10+ rushing attempts at -125 doesn't feel worth it with his lower volume lately.
But in these three season with Gibbs, Montgomery has a touchdown in 23-of-30 games (77%) when he does have double-digit carries, so play an Anytime Touchdown instead at +140 (bet365).
As for rushing attempts, skip the median outcome and take a shot on the high end in case the Lions find success inside and continue to pound the run game with Knuckles: 15+ rush attempts at +700 (bet365).
Jahmyr Gibbs 5+ Receptions + Escalator
But don't worry, we're playing Jahmyr Gibbs too — just as a receiver!
The Packers have allowed at least four receptions to opposing RBs in 8-of-11 games. In fact, they've allowed exactly four or five RB catches seven times with one huge outlier — 14 to the Lions back in Week 1.
Gibbs had 10 catches in that one, and he's running more routes with LaPorta out. Gibbs has been the second-highest Detroit player in first-read target shares each of the last two weeks, and the Packers tend to bleed RB catches because of their style of defense leaving things open underneath.
Gibbs has four games of 5+ receptions in all three NFL seasons, and that looks to be on the table here so play 5+ receptions at +150 (bet365).
He's had five games in his career with 7+ catches, including last time against the Packers with 10 and last week against the Giants with 11, so play 7+ receptions at +600 (bet365).
Gibbs is also +190 to record the most receiving yards by a RB on Thanksgiving at DraftKings. I like him as a clear favorite there, with Chase Brown the most likely threat.
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Chiefs vs Cowboys Spread Pick
I already backed Chiefs -3.5 on the Lookahead before the weekend's games — those contests went exactly as I expected, so I'm more than happy to run back Kansas City again here at the key number.
Dallas upset Philadelphia after a 21-point comeback, and that's what's buying us some value, but the Chiefs may have been even more impressive. They absolutely dominated a Colts team that's been better all season than the Eagles, nearly doubling up Indy in yardage 494 to 255, running 91 plays to just 50 for the Colts, and more than tripling them in first downs 33 to 10.
That was Kansas City's best performance of the season when it mattered most, and it was an especially outstanding defensive effort holding the Colts to just 20 points on 11 drives, even including a touchdown from inside the five, a far cry from Indy's 3.2 points per drive on the season. The Chiefs lost the turnover battle 2-0 and were an ugly 1-of-6 in the red zone, but Kansas City won anyway — and deserved it.
The Chiefs offense still doesn't feel great, but they've been better both running and passing than Dallas.
Kansas City's offense is not explosive, to a maddening degree. It feels like the Chiefs eschew home run swings and just hit single, single, single, over and over again. It's not pretty, but it gets the job done. Kansas City sits top five in Success Rate on the season, while the Cowboys defense ranks 31st.
The Chiefs should be able to move the chains and control this game. They might add some big plays, too — Kansas City does rank top seven in EPA per play passing it deep, where the Cowboys rank 31st.
Now, it's true that Dallas's defense is improving, but don't mistake improvement for great. Nearly anything would be an improvement from what Dallas looked like early in the season, but it's hard to take a ton away from games against the terrible Raiders and an inconsistent Eagles offense that started the game with three straight touchdowns on this D.
Kansas City's defense is trending up, right on time late in the season like usual with Steve Spagnuolo.
As dangerous as George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb have been, the Chiefs have only allowed three TDs to opposing receivers since the Brazil opener. Dallas has been lethal against single-high defenses, but Spags' unit plays a lot more two-high.
The Chiefs have the edge both ways in this matchup, and it's a time-honored tradition to fade the Cowboys on Thanksgiving.
Since 2011, Dallas is an ugly 3-11 ATS on Turkey Day, covering just 21% of the time by -8.3 points.
Meanwhile, non-Dallas favorites are 31-11 ATS (74%) the past two decades, and they're even better as public favorites as the Chiefs will be at 24-6 ATS, covering 80% of the time by 8.0 PPG.
Those numbers would suggest a double-digit win for the Chiefs. We just need them to cover the key number.
Give me Chiefs -3.
Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown (-125)
You probably don't need me to remind you how bad the Cowboys pass defense has been this season.
Dallas has allowed 18 wide receiver TDs already, three more than any team, and opposing stars have had it best. Opponent WR1s have scored 12 touchdowns in 11 games against the Cowboys, better than one per game, with 8-of-11 finding the end zone at least once and three of them scoring multiple times.
Rashee Rice is the clear WR1 in Kansas City — and he's a star. Rice has scored a touchdown in three of five games this season since returning, and he's now found pay dirt in five of his last seven (71%).
He may be due for even more scores, too. Rice already has eight targets inside the 10-yard line, third most among all WRs despite playing just five games. The only two guys ahead of him are Davante Adams and Amon-Ra St. Brown, who have caught 19 TDs between them in that spot. Rice has only three TDs there, so he's due for positive regression.
Rice is -125 to score an Anytime TD at BetMGM, and you can place part of your bet on 2+ scores at +500 (FanDuel).
Patrick Mahomes 3+ Passing Touchdowns
Obviously, Patrick Mahomes will be the one throwing it to Rice.
The Cowboys have allowed 24 passing touchdowns, the most of any team. That includes 7-of-11 games (64%) with at least two passing TDs, and nearly half their games, 5-of-11, have seen three or more scores, including four by Caleb Williams and Bo Nix.
Mahomes has only four games all season with more than one passing touchdown, but he weirdly has no games with exactly two, skipping straight ahead to games with three, three, three and four.
When it's clicking, the eating is good, so let's hope Mahomes is hungry on Thanksgiving and play three passing touchdowns at +154 (FanDuel).
Both Rice and Mahomes are seeing pretty juiced prices here because books know we want to fade the Cowboys and bet overs on Thanksgiving, so don't go too crazy on either of these.
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Bengals vs Ravens Same-Game Parlay
This one is tricky, largely because it's tough to know what version we'll get of either star QB.
It looks like Joe Burrow is back, but it remains to be seen what percentage he's at and how that will affect an offense that's been mostly rolling without him — not to mention both Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson remain out.
Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson still doesn't look like himself and the Ravens have three straight close, ugly wins over the lowly Vikings, Browns and Jets.
At first glance, this looks Bengals and over. Burrow has been incredible as an underdog in his career, 17-3 ATS as a 'dog of three or more points including the playoffs, and four of the last five meetings with the Ravens have been one-score affairs, with the games playing at 63.3 PPG the last two seasons. Instinctively, that feels like a close shootout — the last team with the ball wins.
But the Bengals offense has been far worse on the road, bottom five by DVOA versus top five at home, and the offense wasn't great against New England and now introduces the Burrow variable, which could limit playcalling.
The Ravens defense is also trending way up.
It's easy to forget, but they were the Bengals early — the defense you wanted to play everyone in fantasy against! Now they're top five by DVOA since the bye week, allowing just 13.4 PPG in those five wins, and they're playing especially well with two-high coverage, which the Bengals face more of than any team and rank just 30th in EPA per play against.
The weather should play a role here. It looks like it will be windy in Baltimore with temperatures around freezing, and that sets up a run-heavy Ravens script. The Bengals should theoretically be able to run but seem to fear committing to it, and Cincinnati's run defense is horrendous and could get gashed here.
The Bengals allow the most rushing yards and fantasy points to opposing RBs, so it could be Derrick Henry's time to shine. Cincinnati plays a ton of light box and ranks last in the NFL in EPA per play, and it will get eaten alive if it tries it here against a Ravens team that doesn't face light boxes often but demolishes when they do.
Cincinnati is also worse against outside runs, where the Ravens attack often and effectively. Cincy allows the second-most explosives as well, so Baltimore may find some big plays.
The Thanksgiving trends here don't back our initial gut instinct.
Non-Dallas favorites on Thanksgiving are 74% ATS, including 14-4 ATS (78%) in night games. Night unders have also been a thing on Thanksgiving at 12-6, including eight of the last 10.
I'm trusting the trends and the Ravens home Thanksgiving script on a blustery night. If you believe in Kyle Hamilton and this Ravens defense slowing Cincinnati, that pushes us toward both an under and a Ravens win.
I'll play both together as a correlated SGP: Ravens -6.5 (below the key if you can get it) and under 51.5 at +266 (bet365).
Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown
Derrick Henry caught my eye first for props, but his lines are juiced to high heaven. I do like him to lead all players in rushing yards on Thanksgiving at +185 (DraftKings), and I'd build my Triple Crown bet around him by pairing Henry with Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice to lead their respective yardage categories at +4000.
But if it's a Bengals game, we should be playing tight ends.
The Bengals are last by DVOA against tight ends and short passes, and they've allowed by far the most fantasy points to the position. Cincinnati has already allowed 13 TDs to tight end — more than any team all last season — and that includes 11 the last seven games alone!
Isaiah Likely doesn't look fully healthy yet and isn't seeing his usual snap share; Mark Andrews just played two-thirds of the snaps for the first time since Week 6. He has a touchdown in 4-of-8 games with Lamar Jackson this season and 14 of his last 20 (70%).
I like him to find the end zone on Thanksgiving evening at +125 (bet365) — let's just hope he doesn't drop the ball this time around.
Andrews is also +400 to lead all tight ends in receiving yards on Thanksgiving at DraftKings, with Travis Kelce and Jake Ferguson the obvious competition. Andrews isn't really a yardage guy anymore, but I can't not play a TE against the Bengals for that one.
Ja'Marr Chase 150+ Receiving Yards (+700)
The other obvious angle here is Ja'Marr Chase considering Tee Higgins is out and Chase absolutely demolished Baltimore last season to the tune of 10/193/2 in one game and 11/264/3 in the other. That's half a season of production for most good WRs in two games!
Chase has hit 141+ receiving yards in a game eight times in the last three seasons. When he's hot, he can get to any number.
Just a nibble on 150+ yards at +700 (bet365) in case Burrow and Chase do it again.
I don't mind playing this against my own Ravens position, but I strongly recommend against parlaying it with the Ravens/under combo.
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Thanksgiving Parlays
Many books out there offer Thanksgiving boosts for parlays, so if you're looking to build a parlay, I like just taking my main play from each game and throwing them together: Lions -2.5, Chiefs -3 and that Ravens -6.5/under 51.5 SGP, all together at +1235 (bet365).
If you can use one of your boosts on a future, I'll also offer up a Lions-Steelers division parlay at +1324 (FanDuel).
The Lions' case is pretty clear above. Detroit can get a leg up on the Packers with a head-to-head win, and the Bears are touchdown underdogs on Friday before playing Green Bay the following week, so Detroit could be in great position very quickly.
As for the Steelers, they're my favorite side of the week in a great Rah Rah Mike Tomlin spot at home off a loss. Their schedule is also softer than Baltimore's, with the Ravens still yet to play the Patriots and Packers, plus two games against Joe Burrow when the rest of the division mostly dodged him.
Pittsburgh is home Week 18 against the Ravens, and the Lions play the Bears in Week 18, too, so we'll be in great position to hedge our parlay if needed, if things are close.
At +1324, a Lions-Steelers division parlay implies 7% odds, but FTN has this 13% to hit, and it could go past 25% if games this week go our way.
If you want to juice the odds further, there's slight value on the Colts, Bucs and Broncos as division favorites. Adding those three in gets your ticket to +3077 at FanDuel.
Choose your fighter, have a little Thanksgiving nibble, and let's eat.
Thanks for following along every week, and enjoy the holiday!
Brandon's Thanksgiving Betting Card
- Lions -2.5 (bet365)
- Jahmyr Gibbs 5+ Receptions +150 (bet365)
- David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown +140 (bet365)
- David Montgomery 15+ Rush Attempts +700 (bet365)
- Chiefs -3 (bet365)
- Rashee Rice Anytime Touchdown -125 (BetMGM)
- Patrick Mahomes 3+ Passing Touchdowns +154 (FanDuel)
- Ravens -6.5 + Under 51.5 Same-Game Parlay +266 (bet365)
- Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown +125 (bet365)
- Ja'Marr Chase 150+ Receiving Yards +700 (bet365)
