The Detroit Lions (7-4) host the Green Bay Packers (7-3-1) to open the NFL Week 13 slate on Thanksgiving. Kickoff from Ford Field in Detroit, Mich. is set for 1 p.m. ET. Packers vs Lions will broadcast on FOX.
The Lions are 2.5-point favorites over the Packers on the spread (Lions -2.5; -115), with the over/under set at 48. Detroit is a -150 favorite to win outright on the moneyline; Green Bay is +125 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Packers vs Lions picks for NFL Thanksgiving, which include predictions for the spread and three props.
Packers vs Lions Picks & Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Packers vs Lions Odds
- Packers vs Lions Moneyline: Packers +125, Lions -150
- Packers vs Lions Spread: Packers +2.5 (-105), Lions -2.5 (-115)
- Packers vs Lions Total: 48
NFL Thanksgiving odds via bet365
Packers vs Lions Spread Prediction
The Lions were bailed out by explosive runs against the Giants on Sunday in a game that required a furious rally just to force overtime.
The Packers’ rush defense is a considerably more difficult test for a Detroit offense that simply has not been as efficient and methodical in 2025. The Packers have allowed just 3.7 yards per carry to running backs this season, and the defense in total surrenders just 4.4 yards per play on 1st and 2nd down – the second-best mark in the NFL.
I won’t read too much into a game played three months ago back in Week 1, but the Packers held the Lions to 2.1 yards per rush in that game, which forced Jared Goff out of his comfort zone. Goff was forced to throw short and the Packers did a tremendous job of taking away his first read in obvious passing situations.
The Lions will have an easier time operating at Ford Field, but this is still a gameplan the Green Bay defense can replicate. Goff’s passer rating under pressure this season is 56.7, a clear indicator that forcing him into 3rd-and-long situations creates the best chance of success for any defense facing the Lions.
The Packers offense has scored 27 or more points in four consecutive road games. They rank second in the league on a per-drive basis scoring points on the road this season.
Jordan Love should have chances to connect on passes down the field against a reeling Lions secondary that was just torched for 10.7 yards per attempt by the Giants.
Pick: Packers +2.5 (+100)
Packers vs Lions Player Props: Jared Goff
By Nick Giffen
Since Dan Campbell took over playcalling duties for the Lions, they've had the three highest PROE games of the season.
Jared Goff has averaged 37.3 pass atttempts in regulation in those three games despite just over 27.5 minutes of time of possession for Detroit.
The Packers allow the sixth-lowest early down success rate, which could mean more third-and-long situations for the Lions.
Green Bay is also No. 1 in preventing explosive pass plays.
The Lions will need more sustained drives, which means more TOP and more attempts for Goff.
This line is a bit too low. This game has a high total (near 50 points) and a spread around 3 points, so it's likely going to be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair.
While the Packers don't play at a fast pace, that's different outside of Green Bay, and I'm expecting a lot of plays over in Detroit.
Goff has hit the over at this number in each of the last four games, and since Campbell took over playcalling, the Lions have been passing a ton and getting the running backs more involved through short-area passes.
I have Goff projected for nearly 35 passing attempts.
Pick: Jared Goff Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
Packers vs Lions Prop Bet: 1st Turnover Committed
By Billy Ward
I’ve been looking into the “first turnover committed” markets as an alternative to things like the first first down bet; I have been tempted to take a shot at the “neither” market on multiple occasions.
That moment has arrived on Thanksgiving, as we have the perfect opportunity.
The Packers and Lions rank second and third in fewest giveaways per game this season, at 0.6 and 0.7, respectively. Neither is in the top 10 in terms of takeaways either, with Detroit tied for 11th (1.2) and Green Bay ranking 22nd (1.0).
Plus, three of Detroit’s takeaways were interceptions from ball-hawking safety Kerby Joseph, who isn’t expected to return to action on Thanksgiving. The Lions' takeaway rate has been down since he’s been injured.
Whether you view turnovers as being more driven by the offense or the defense, either way, the odds on this bet should be lower.
Detroit has had four games each with no takeaways and no giveaways, with two occasions of neither out of 11 contests. Green Bay has six games with no giveaways and three with no takeaways.
Therefore, rough math suggests that if the offense is the driving factor, there’s a roughly 20% chance (+400) of none in this game.
If defense is more important, the odds are roughly 9% or +1011 odds. Not as much of an edge, but one nonetheless – and my suspicion is the former theory is more accurate anyway.
Pick: First Turnover Committed: Neither Team (+1200)
Packers vs Lions Player Props: Jahmyr Gibbs
This is just one of many bets I've made on the Packers-Lions game — you can find the rest in my NFL Thanksgiving preview.
The Packers have allowed at least four receptions to opposing RBs in 8-of-11 games this season. They've allowed exactly four or five catches running backs seven times, with one huge outlier — 14 to the Lions in Week 1.
Jahmyr Gibbs had 10 catches in that game, and he's been more involved lately because of the injury to Sam LaPorta.
Gibbs has been the second-highest Lions player in first-read target share in each of the last two weeks, and the Packers have a tendency to allow RB catches because their defensive play style can leave plenty of open space underneath.
Gibbs, who is coming off an 11-reception game, has had four games with 5+ receptions in each of his three NFL seasons. That is definitely in play here.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs 5+ Receptions (+100)
