The Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) and Dallas Cowboys (5-5-1) meet on Thanksgiving day on Thursday, Nov. 27. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET from AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This NFL Week 13 game will broadcast on CBS.
The Chiefs are 3-point favorites on the spread over the Cowboys (Chiefs -3;-115); the over/under is 52 points. The Chiefs are -185 moneyline favorites while the Cowboys are +155 home underdogs.
Let's get into my NFL Thanksgiving preview and Chiefs vs Cowboys prediction.
Chiefs vs Cowboys Prediction
- Chiefs vs Cowboys pick: 1st Half Under 26.5 (+100; DraftKings)
My Chiefs vs Cowboys best bet is the 1st half total under 26.5. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chiefs vs Cowboys Odds
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 52 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 52 -110o / -110u | +155 |
Chiefs vs Cowboys NFL Thanksgiving Preview
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
On paper, this looks like an easy matchup for the Chiefs because the Cowboys rank 29th in DVOA against both the run and the pass.
However, the Cowboys have been playing at a much higher level since their bye (Week 10) and are 2-0 after landing Quinnen Williams at the trade deadline.
Williams has been unbelievable so far with 13 pressures, 1.5 sacks and a 22% pressure rate over two games, which is the third-highest rate in the NFL. He has also given the Cowboys run defense a huge boost as they have allowed the fewest yards before contact to RBs over the last two weeks; NextGenStats has them with the fourth-highest stuff rate in that span.
With the interior of the Cowboys defense playing this well, the Chiefs losing RG Trey Smith is a real factor. Backup Jaylon Moore should fill in fine (he filled in nicely for LT Josh Simmons earlier this season), but reshuffling the offensive line on a short week is not ideal when you are facing Williams and Osa Odighizuwa .
On top of that, TE Noah Gray has been ruled out. Gray is the Chiefs' best blocking TE and Kelce essentially functions as a WR. It will likely be Robert Tonyan filling Gray’s role, which could also lead to Patrick Mahomes facing a couple more pressures than usual.
Mahomes has faced the third-lowest pressure rate among 34 qualified QBs this season, but I expect that number to rise today. The Cowboys are ninth in pressure rate and trending up.
Mahomes has struggled under pressure, completing just 38% of his passes when pressured, which is the third-lowest rate in the league. The Cowboys will need to make sure he does not have a clean pocket in order to slow down the passing game.
When the Cowboys Have the Ball
Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense have also been playing at a high level since the bye week.
George Pickens has broken out with lines of 9/144/1 and 9/146/1 in back-to-back weeks. He has become one of the better receivers in the league now that the Cowboys have opened up his route tree to give him an opportunity to win at all levels of the field.
Pair that with CeeDee Lamb and Dallas arguably has one of the top WR duos in the league. Even with Trent McDuffie being a shutdown CB, it will be difficult for the Chiefs to slow down both.
The Cowboys took a big hit on the offensive line with LT Tyler Guyton ruled out with a high ankle sprain. Guyton has been closer to average in pressure rate allowed (7.4%, 52nd of 86 tackles).
Guyton's replacement, Nate Thomas, has allowed a 12% pressure rate, which ranks 81st. He will have a tough assignment against George Karlaftis — the Chiefs will likely try to isolate that mismatch as much as possible.
Karlaftis ranks 10th with 45 pressures and he has the ability to disrupt Prescott's pocket enough to swing a few drives.
Chiefs vs Cowboys Prediction, Betting Analysis
Chiefs vs Cowboys screams, “Points!”
Plenty of casual bettors will grab the over because they remember the 40-37 Cowboys-Giants OT game in Week 2, the 40-40 Cowboys-Packers OT tie in Week 4, and because it is the middle Thanksgiving game where everyone wants to cheer for touchdowns.
I get it. I am projecting this game closer to 50.5, so yes, I expect plenty of scoring.
However, I think 52.5 is a bit inflated, especially with 51 being a key number for totals.
As I laid out above, the Cowboys defense looks genuinely improved with Quinnen Williams, and both offenses will be missing a key OL piece on a short week, which can matter early while players settle in.
That is why I prefer the 1st half under at 26.5. You can still get 3 TDs and a FG and stay under.
Since this game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. central time, we get the infamous AT&T Stadium sun glare (aka “Jerry’s World solar eclipse”) in the first half.
The glare typically hurts the offense more than it helps. CeeDee Lamb has literally gone on record asking for curtains to fix it. It is a fun and legitimately meaningful angle for the 1H under specifically.
Once halftime hits and the sun goes down you can switch gears and root for the fireworks in the second half, but for the first 30 minutes, I think this number is too high.
Pick: 1st Half Under 26.5 (+100)
Spread
I have no play on either side of the spread
Moneyline
I have no bet for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I projected this game at 50.5 points so I think 52-52.5 is a bit much.
However, as I stated above, there's a real edge on the first half under 26.5.
