Jahmyr Gibbs over 15.5 rush att (+105 at BetMGM, +104 at DK) In six games with Dan Campbell calling the plays for Detroit, Gibbs has had a median of 14 carries per game, clearing this line just once. However, in those six games the Lions have run more than double the amount of plays trailing in the second half than with the lead. As 7-point favorites, that heavily favors a better game script for Gibbs to rack up more rushing attempts. When leading, the Lions run 36% more than when they trail, which represents the largest discrepancy in the NFL for teams with at least 50 plays in both scenarios. The Steelers are also slightly worse ranked against the run than the pass, so ideally you'd want to attack them on the ground when possible. The other sneaky angle here is in those six games where Gibbs had a median of 14 carries, they came against teams that allow around league average total plays allowed. The Steelers rank No. 1 in the NFL in total plays faced, meaning there should be more overall play volume, which can only benefit Gibbs clearing this line. I really like taking this at any plus odds

PIT’s defense is allowing the 8th highest explosive run% (5.9%) & has struggled vs Man/Gap concept runs with the 5th Highest Success Rate allowed. Gibbs has an elite 7.51 YPC on Man/Gap concept runs on the year. Over their L5 games, PIT has allowed the 5th highest adjusted yards before contact/attempt (3.04) & DET ranks 2nd in Adj YBC/ATT (2.77) on the season. DET is coming off a loss and needs to win (-7 point home favorites). Gibbs should see plenty of opportunities to clear his line…. Gibbs Longest Rush Hit Rates: • 18+ in 14/L16 at Home • 18+ in 15/L19 Wins • 18+ in 11/L11 Home Wins • 18+ in 5/5 Games following Loss • 18+ in 13/L13 at Home with 11+ Carries