Rovell: Ravens’ Blowout Win vs. Rams ‘Worst Single-Game Outcome’ of the Season for Sportsbooks

Rovell: Ravens’ Blowout Win vs. Rams ‘Worst Single-Game Outcome’ of the Season for Sportsbooks article feature image

Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson and Willie Snead

  • Darren Rovell will be tracking all of the vital betting market info for NFL Week 12, including the biggest bets of the week placed in New Jersey, Las Vegas and beyond

Monday Evening Updates

11:15 p.m. ET: It was the biggest game of the year for sportsbooks — and the result was never in doubt.

The Baltimore Ravens blew out the Los Angeles Rams, 45-6, crushing books from Las Vegas to New Jersey, as public bettors flocked to wager on the red-hot Ravens as 3.5-point favorites and the over of 47 points.

“This is the worst single game outcome [of the year],” MGM’s Scott Shelton told The Action Network. “But it could have been worse. We took a $110,000 bet on the Rams before kick.”

While the book made back $110,000 on that last-minute Rams bet, it got cleaned out by a host of big wagers and parlays on the other side, including one bettor who won $260,000 on a two-team parlay that included the Ravens (-3) and the Seahawks (pick’em).

Another MGM bettor won $50,000 on a $57,500 bet of Ravens -3.

MGM certainly was not alone, as every bookmaker I heard from on Monday needed the Rams to win outright. A Ravens high-scoring blowout was as bad as it could’ve gone for sportsbooks.

“Ravens and [the] over results in us giving back about half of what we won yesterday,” the SuperBook’s John Murray said. “Worst-case scenario.”

This comes a week after books suffered a similar result on Monday Night Football last week, as the Chiefs covered as a very popular favorites against the Chargers in a week that featured a ton of big-money parlays and teasers cashing.

5:17 p.m. ET:  Add up the carried over parlay and teaser money from the usual public favorites winning (New England Patriots, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers) and combine that with some big bets on the red-hot and public-loving Baltimore Ravens team, and whaddya get? Nervous oddsmakers, who need the Rams cover as win and cover as 3.5-point underdogs tonight.

“If it’s not biggest decision (of the year), it’s close,” said Scott Shelton of MGM.

One of the MGM’s big-money clients has a $100,000 two-leg parlay to profit $260,000 if Ravens -3 covers tonight. The other leg, the Seahawks (pick’em), already prevailed.

MGM also has a $57,500 bet on Ravens -3 that would profit $50,000 if MVP frontrunner Lamar Jackson covers for the fifth-straight game.

The money, in general, is heavily on the Ravens — 78% at FanDuel and 76% at DraftKings.

“It’s a very steady stream of money on the Ravens,” said the SuperBook’s John Murray. “We need the Rams for a good amount.”

William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich echoed Murray’s sentiments.

“Ravens period is bad,” Bogdanovich said. “Straight, parlays and teasers all culprits. Go Rams!”

Murray says it’s a big decision tonight, but doesn’t compare to last week, when another huge public team, the Kansas City Chiefs, won and covered. The reason? Last week featured a lot more parlays rolling over into Monday Night due to a mass amount of public favorites covering.

Sunday Evening Updates

11:25 p.m. ET: Entering the Sunday Night Football game between the Packers and 49ers, Scott Shelton from MGM had a problem.

One of the MGM’s big-money clients had placed two separate parlays: One for $100,000 to profit $600,000, the other for $100,000 to profit $260,000.

The first one was a three-team parlay that encompassed the Seahawks (pick’em), Packers (+3) and Ravens (-3). The second one was identical to the first, except it didn’t include the Packers.

That meant, if the Packers covered as 3-point underdogs vs. San Fran, MGM would be sweating a $860,000 payout to this one bettor on Monday Night Football. (Seattle cruised to a road victory in Philly earlier in the day.)

But Shelton & Co. should sleep a little better tonight after the 49ers’ resounding victory, which wiped out $600,000 of the liability. The $260,000 still looms — and MGM is sure to be heavy on the Ravens, who are one of the most public teams in the NFL and are coming off a high-profile upset of the Patriots — but it could’ve been worse.

The Packers failing to cover also netted MGM $50,000 from a different bettor who spread more than $150,000 across three bets on Sunday/Monday:

  • $55,000 to win $50,000: Cowboys +6 at Patriots (WIN)
  • $50,000 to win $50,000: Packers +3 at 49ers (LOSS)
  • $57,500 to $50,000: Ravens -3 at Rams (PENDING)

After putting $100K in play on Sunday, this bettor is dead even with another big bet pending on Monday Night Football.

Over at Caesars, another big-money bettor also went home wondering what could’ve been. He wagered $55,000 to win $50,000 on the game’s over/under, which closed at 48. The Packers put backup QB Tim Boyle in the game late, and for a second, it looked like he might lead an over-clinching TD drive, but Green Bay ran out of time. 49ers 37, Packers 8.

But don’t shed too many tears for this bettor: He won $100,000 on Cowboys +6 just hours earlier.

7:29 p.m. ET: With less than 7 minutes remaining in Sunday’s Cowboys-Patriots game, Dallas coach Jason Garrett made the controversial decision to kick a field goal on fourth down when trailing by seven instead of going for it.

The call caused an uproar within the NFL analytics community, but across Nevada and New Jersey, the oddsmakers at the SuperBook in Las Vegas were rejoicing.

The book opened this spread at Patriots -6.5 and immediately took a $53,000 bet. The line at the SuperBook got as low as -5.5. All Patriots spread bets lost, as the game ended Patriots 13, Cowboys 9.

“We had big bets here on Patriots -6.5 and -5.5 so we just wanted [the Cowboys] to cover the spread,” the SuperBook’s John Murray told The Action Network.

There were plenty of big bets on the Cowboys, too. one whale at Caesars profited $100,000 on a $110,000 bet. He had Cowboys +6.

And on the Dallas (+6) side. Here’s the biggest bet we’ve seen (via @GregPlusEV)

— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) November 25, 2019

This same bettor plopped down $55,000 to win $50,000 on Over 48 in the Packers-49ers Sunday Night Football Game.

One client at MGM wagered $55,000 to win $50,000 on Dallas +6. This same bettor also has some large wagers looming on the two remaining primetime games of Week 12:

  • $50,000 to win $50,000: Packers +3 at 49ers (SNF)
  • $57,500 to win $50,000: Ravens -3 at Rams (MNF)

Sunday Afternoon Updates

4:26 p.m. ET: It was quite a sweat, but one bettor won $220,000 on three-team teaser at MGM on Sunday. The bet, which risked $200,000 and was first reported by Patrick Everson, encompassed Buccaneers +11, Over 44.5 in Buccaneers-Falcons and Browns -3.5.

The Browns and Buccaneers easily covered their respective spreads, but the Over 44.5 leg in was a little too close for comfort. After seeing 35 points scored in the game’s first 35 minutes, there were no points scored over a 10-minute span.

With less than 3:30 remaining and the game stuck on 28-16 (44 points), Ndamukong Suh put this bettor out of his misery, returning a fumble for a touchdown an officially eclipsing the total.

4:15 p.m. ET: Most sportsbooks today needed the Eagles to pull off a home victory against the Seattle Seahawks. PointsBet was a rare exception, which makes sense given the book’s South Jersey clientele, but elsewhere, big bets hammered the 8-2 Seahawks, who were making the trip from west to east to play in the Philly.

A bettor at MGM dropped $100,000 to win a smidge more than $90,000 on Seattle +1, as first reported by Patrick Everson.

Another client at MGM threw the Seahawks into a big-money, three-team parlay: $100,000 on the Seahawks (pick’em), Packers (+3) and Ravens (-3). It will profit $600,000 if it wins. One leg down, two legs to go.

This same bettor has another $100,000 on a two-team parlay, as well: Seahawks (pick’em) and Ravens (-3). It would profit around $250,000.

Jeff Sherman from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook told me his book took a $22,000 wager to win $20,000 on Seattle -1.5.

After the game, Sherman texted, “About half of what we will lose on game, we will win back at halftime. Lots of Eagles -0.5 in the second half, including $27,500 to win $25k from one guest.”

4:06 p.m. ET: The public did well betting on over/unders today:

87% of the money was on the over of 46 in Dolphins-Browns (WIN)

80% of the money was on the under of 37 in Steelers-Bengals (WIN)

76% of the money was on the under of 40.5 in Giants-Bears (WIN)

4:02 p.m. ET: The Bills handled the visiting Broncos, 20-3, much to the delight of one bettor, who bet $100,000 to win just north of $90,000.

3:58 p.m. ET: We spent the morning telling you how popular of a bet the Raiders were as 3.5-point favorites at the Jets. The Westgate’s Jeff Sherman went so far as to say the Jets were his book’s biggest need. Well, not only did New York cover, Sam Darnold & Co. blew the doors off the Raiders, wiping out all moneyline parlays and teasers in the process.

Here are some of the biggest bets we heard of that fell victim to Oakland’s egg-laying:

  • $100,000 to win 83,333: Raiders -3 vs. Jets (MGM)
  • $50,000 to win $47,619: Raiders -3.5 (MGM)
  • $22,000 to win $20,000: Raiders -3 (SuperBook)
  • $25,000 parlay to win $96,250: Raiders ML (William Hill via “Parlay Patz” — see more details below)

3:10 p.m. ET: One bettor at MGM spread more than $150,000 in bets across three of Week 12’s marquee matchups, as first reported by Patrick Everson:

  • $55,000 to win $50,000: Cowboys +6 at Patriots
  • $50,000 to win $50,000: Packers +3 at 49ers (SNF)
  • $57,500 to win $50,000: Ravens -3 at Rams (MNF)

The Cowboys-Patriots spread has continued to tick down as the weather has become more of a concern, so this bettor got a good number with +6. The spread is as low as +5 around the market.

This is the second $50,000+ bet we’ve heard of this week on Cowboys-Patriots. The first came at the Westgate a week ago on Sunday afternoon, as a bettor put $53,500 to win $48,636 on Patriots -6.5.

Sunday Morning Updates

12 p.m. ET: Ben Patz — aka “Parlay Patz,” the 23-year-old bettor who won $333,000 on a parlay last Sunday — lost his two parlays yesterday for $30,000 total. Straight-up losses by Oregon and Washington doomed his college football 5-team parlay ($20,000) and college football/NFL 8-team parlay ($10,000).

He’s back for more today, hoping to replicate some of the magic that led to him cashing that $333,000 ticket at William Hill last Sunday.

Patz put $25,000 on a four-team moneyline parlay of Raiders (at Jets), Bills (vs. Broncos), Steelers (at Bengals), Lions (at Redskins). If all four teams win, he’d net $96,250.

Patz is now inputting his bets in our app @parlaypatz, so you can follow him there if you want. And remember, tread lightly when betting parlays, as they tend to be -EV bets over a long period of time.

11:12 a.m. ET: Jeff Sherman from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook just sent over the weekly rundown of who the pros are betting at his shop, who the public is on, and some of the book’s biggest needs and bets.

Let’s take a look.

As you can see, the public and pros are on opposite sides of two games: Panthers-Saints and Cowboys-Patriots. Unsurprisingly, the public hasn’t hesitated to bet both of the home favorites.

Westgate’s largest bet on Cowboys-Pats actually came in a week ago right after lines opened: $53,500 to profit $48,636 on Patriots -6.5. Given how the line has moved since then (down to Patriots -5/-5.5, depending on the book), this bettor actually lost a fair bit of value by hopping on early.

More nuggets from Sherman and Westgate:

Biggest Wagers So Far

  • $53,500 to win $48,636: Patriots -6.5
  • $22,000 to win $20,000: Raiders -3
  • $22,000 to win $20,000: Buccaneers +4.5
  • $22,000 to win $20,000: Seattle -1.5
  • $22,000 to win $20,000: 49ers -3

Biggest Needs At the Moment

  • Jets over Raiders
  • Falcons over Bucs
  • Cowboys over Patriots
  • Eagles over Seahawks

10:34 a.m. ET: It’s relatively quiet this morning, which we are surprised about since last week went so well for the betting public, but that should change as we get closer to games.

The biggest liability right now for sportsbooks, including both William Hill and PointsBet, is the Philadelphia Eagles, who opened as 3-point favorites against the Seattle Seahawks and are now down to pick’em in some spots.

“The public has pounded the Seahawks, but pros are loving Philly in a value spot,” said PointsBet’s Matt Chaprales. “Currently about 65% of the tickets are on Seattle, but over 70% of the money is on the Eagles at significant volume. Big decision looming.”

The Detroit Lions-Washington Redskins game is the most lopsided in our system, with 82% of the money on Detroit, as the line has gone from -1.5 to -4. That matches up with the books we surveyed this morning, including PointsBet, which has 82% of the money on Detroit and FanDuel, which is at 89%.

But beware of the Lions, who have not covered the spread in five games after starting 4-1 ATS.

How about the Patriots? Tom Brady is listed as questionable vs. the Cowboys with a right elbow injury. It’s fully expected that he’ll play, but that news, along with some wicked weather, is one of the reasons why the number has dropped to as low as Pats -5 after sitting at Pats -6.5 earlier in the week.

Both the tickets and money on this game are split pretty evenly, which isn’t entirely surprising for a game featuring the two most publicly bet teams in the NFL. “Pros are staying away even though they probably see some value on the Dallas side,” Chaprales said.

Intriguing total of 51.5 to play in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Atlanta Falcons game today. The Bucs are 8-2 on the over in games they’ve played this year, which is best in the NFL. The Falcons are 3-7, which is tied for second worst.

Do you dare take the Falcons as 3.5-point home favorites against the struggling Bucs? “The Falcons have done a 180 the past few weeks and so has the public sentiment regarding them,” Chaprales said. “Interested to see how they fare in a favorite spot, but will definitely be needing the Bucs, as about 70% of the tickets and 90% of the money is behind Atlanta.”

Huge Bet Right Out the Gate

9:55 p.m. ET on Sunday, Nov. 17: Ever since the NFL schedule came out, we’ve had Cowboys-Patriots in Week 12 circled on the calendar. The two most popular teams to bet on facing each other … what on Earth would the betting public do?

We got an early indication on Sunday night the type of action we can expect over the next seven days. According to John Murray of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, one of their house players wagered $53,500 on Patriots -6.5 shortly after lines opened on Sunday evening.

What’s interesting is Westgate’s lookahead line for this game was Pats -7, but the book decided to move off that key number and open the number at 6.5.

Clearly that’s all this bettor needed to lay a large amount of cash on Tom Brady & Co.

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