NFL Sharp Report: How Pros Are Betting Bucs-Rams, Jaguars-Broncos
Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Gardner Minshew.
- Using the Action Network's betting tools, we break down how sharps are playing the Week 4 Sunday slate.
It’s not the most marquee football weekend if you ask me. There were no huge college football matchups on Saturday and nothing too spectacular awaits on the Sunday NFL slate, either. Hey, at least we have the Andy Dalton-Mason Rudolph showdown on Monday Night to look forward to!
Here’s how sharp bettors are playing a Week 4 slate that would be otherwise boring to the non-invested fan.
Odds as of Saturday night. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Redskins at Giants
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Daniel Jones — he’s the man getting as much attention from football dorks as Davy Jones got from swooning teenage girls in the late 60s. Among those football dorks are bettors, who have seen enough of the rookie QB to feel he’s worthy of substantially moving the line.
Last week’s lookahead line had the Giants at -1.5, but that shot up to the key number of -3 following Jones’ debut. I’m not here to talk about the spread, though.
The over/under has seen more up and down movement than an elevator. Early in the week, it was pounded up from its opener of 46 to 49.5.
That was its peak, though, and where sharpies jumped on the under.
Seventy-percent of bets are on the over, but 56% of the loot is on the under. We also tracked a reverse line move on the under at 49.5. These factors have helped drop the line back down to 48.5.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 49.5 to 48.5)
Buccaneers at Rams
4:05 p.m. ET | FOX
If you have a coach that literally makes his kicker’s job intentionally harder, don’t be surprised if sharp bettors are on the under. OK, that’s probably not something that came to mind when the pros decided to hit the under, but they still hit it nevertheless.
This total sat around 50.5/51 early in the week and could even be found at 51.5 at some books before sharp action caused it to fall. We’ve tracked five bet signals on the under since then, and, as was the case with WAS-NYG, we have a solid bets/dollars split going on — 39% of bets, but 57% of money on the under.
This professional onslaught has caused the line to fall down a couple points to 49.
Meanwhile, on the spread, bets are actually split 50/50. That’s somewhat surprising given the Rams’ pedigree, as the public tends to love good teams and big favorites.
The cash is a 75/25 split, however, and the big bucks are on the … Bucs. Sharp action has moved the line through the key number of 10 down to +9. When it comes to NFL spread betting, 10 is arguably the third most “key” number behind three and seven. 3+7=10, too, which is something you should jot down for future reference.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 51 to 49) and Bucs (moved from +10.5 to +9)
Jaguars at Broncos
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS
Out in Denver, winds will be whipping at a ferocious pace. Average wind speeds will be around 17-18 mph while gusts will double that — maybe more.
These high wind speeds will make it tough for Gardner Minshew to throw a football over them mountains. It will make throwing the ball more than 20 yards or so down the field difficult and both kickers will have trouble, too.
This total initially moved from 38 to 39, but once the forecast became more apparent, sharp bettors came in and steamed it down to 37.5. If it closes at this number or below, it will be the lowest total of the season thus far.
Totals this low used to be commonplace, but are now a rarity. From 2003 to 2012, there were 519 totals of 37.5 or lower per Bet Labs. This would be just the 16th in six-plus seasons since.
Sharp Angle: Under (moved from 39 to 37.5)