Koerner’s NFL Wild Card Prop Bet Picks: Odds I’m Targeting for Titans-Patriots
Getty Images. Pictured: Julian Edelman
- Sean Koerner runs through NFL Wild Card props to identify his top picks and the odds he's looking to bet on Saturday.
- Find out how he recommends betting Ryan Tannehill's passing yards, Julian Edelman's receiving yards and more for Titans-Patriots.
There’s tons of value to be had betting NFL props. And with the slates getting smaller with the playoffs, I’ve decided to peel the curtain back on my full prop betting process.
Below is a guide to all the key player props for the Bills-Titans and Titans-Patriots matchups that kick off Wild Card Weekend on Saturday. You’ll find my projections as well as the lines I’m looking to bet for 20 different player props.
NFL Wild Card Prop Bets & Picks
Bills Prop Bets & Picks
Josh Allen’s Passing Yards
Allen will make his first career playoff start as a 3-point road dog against a pretty soft pass defense, which we should expect to elevate his passing production, especially if the Bills play from behind most of the game.
The Bills run a very low volume offense that resulted in a median of 208 passing yards per game for Allen. I’ve projected his median for this game as 214.5 passing yards. Books have opened his prop in the 217.5 to 219.5 range so far. Passing yards have a very wide range of outcomes, so getting five yards of value is not a big enough edge to overcome the vig at most sportsbooks. I typically would want to see +/- 10 yards of value before pulling the trigger.
If any book floats a line of 224.5, there would be about about a 58% chance of the under hitting, which would trigger a bet for me.
Target Bet: Under 224.5 Yards (or Higher)