Koerner’s NFL Wild Card Prop Bet Picks: Odds I’m Targeting for Titans-Patriots
Getty Images. Pictured: Julian Edelman
- Sean Koerner runs through NFL Wild Card props to identify his top picks and the odds he's looking to bet on Saturday.
- Find out how he recommends betting Ryan Tannehill's passing yards, Julian Edelman's receiving yards and more for Titans-Patriots.
There’s tons of value to be had betting NFL props. And with the slates getting smaller with the playoffs, I’ve decided to peel the curtain back on my full prop betting process.
Below is a guide to all the key player props for the Bills-Titans and Titans-Patriots matchups that kick off Wild Card Weekend on Saturday. You’ll find my projections as well as the lines I’m looking to bet for 20 different player props.
NFL Wild Card Prop Bets & Picks
Bills Prop Bets & Picks
Josh Allen’s Passing Yards
Allen will make his first career playoff start as a 3-point road dog against a pretty soft pass defense, which we should expect to elevate his passing production, especially if the Bills play from behind most of the game.
The Bills run a very low volume offense that resulted in a median of 208 passing yards per game for Allen. I’ve projected his median for this game as 214.5 passing yards. Books have opened his prop in the 217.5 to 219.5 range so far. Passing yards have a very wide range of outcomes, so getting five yards of value is not a big enough edge to overcome the vig at most sportsbooks. I typically would want to see +/- 10 yards of value before pulling the trigger.
If any book floats a line of 224.5, there would be about about a 58% chance of the under hitting, which would trigger a bet for me.
Target Bet: Under 224.5 Yards (or Higher)
Allen’s Passing Touchdowns
I’m projecting Allen to throw for 1.31 touchdowns, which results in the following odds:
That would translate to true odds of: Over 1.5 Passing TDs (+165); Under 1.5 (-165).
Allen’s Rushing Yards
Allen’s single-game rushing props are typically between 32.5 to 34.5 yards, which would be a pass for me. But if any book offers 35.5, there would be about 58% chance of it going under, triggering a bet for me.
Target Bet: Under 35.5 (or More) Rushing Yards
Devin Singletary’s Rushing Yards
The Bills are likely to lean on Singletary in this matchup. He took over as their workhorse back in Week 11, but it was in a playoff-caliber matchup against the Patriots in Week 16 that they gave him every backfield touch, resulting in none for Frank Gore. We could see a similar game plan on Saturday, especially given the Bills were able to rest starters like Singletary in Week 17.
I was hoping books would open this prop in the 50s, but it looks like most will be in the 63.5 range. I already show a 55% edge on the over at 63.5 yards, so if you’re the type of better who likes to rack up volume with a lowered perceived edge, you can nibble on the over here.
I typically like to have at least a 58% perceived edge before betting, so here are my odds for various potential lines:
I’ll wait to bet this over until I find a book offering this prop at 61.5 or fewer yards.
Target Bet: Over 61.5 (or Fewer) Yards
Singletary’s Receiving Yards
Every yard counts in this market, so we need to be on the lookout for bad numbers.
After simulating this game 10,000 times, I get an average of 21 receiving yards with a median of 20 for Singletary. And so far, I’ve only seen this prop at one book, where it’s posted at 21.5. I have Singletary going under that number 56% of the time. But if we can get this prop with an extra yard or two, it would be immensely valuable: The odds of the under hitting at 23.5 shoot up to 60.7%.
Target Bet: Under 22.5 (or More) Yards
John Brown’s Receiving Yards
Brown signed with the Bills this past offseason to bolster Allen’s receiving corps with a veteran deep threat. Brown has typically been a high-ceiling, high-floor player throughout his career, so teaming up with a high-ceiling, high-floor quarterback like Allen figured to be a very volatile combo.
Brown has shockingly been consistent all year long, which makes him fairly easy to project, bu rarely offers much value as the markets typically have him pegged right. That’s the case again this week with books offering this market between 60.5 to 63.5, which is right in line with my median of 60.5.
This line would have to drift up to 69.5 — which would have 58.6% value on the under — before it would initiate a bet from me, but that seems highly unlikely.
Target Bet: Under 69.5 (or More) Yards
Cole Beasley’s Receiving Yards
Beasley is the other veteran WR the Bills brought on who has also been very consistent, so he doesn’t offer much value on his props as a result. I have his median projection at 49.5 yards, which is right in line with the books who have this posted as of writing.
There would have to be a book that is way off the market to trigger a bet here, which seems unlikely.
Target Bet: Over at 43.5 (or Fewer) Yards; Under 56.5 (or More) Yards
Dawson Knox’s Receiving Yards
There’s only one book offering this prop at the time of writing, but at 23.5, it’s already offering value on the under. Knox has been a low-volume tight end all season, but he has a high yards per catch at 13.9. I have him regressing with an expected yards per catch of 12.3. I also have him projected to average 2.0 receptions in this game.
In my simulations, he averages 24.2 yards per game but a median of 17.0. Despite averaging right around 24 yards across the sample, he finishes with fewer than 23.5 yards 58.5% of the time.
I already like the under at 23.5, and anything higher than that will simply result in an expected win rate of 60% or better.
Target Bet: Under 23.5 (or More) Yards
Texans Prop Bets & Picks
Deshaun Watson’s Passing Yards
Most player props involving the Texans passing game have been off the board due to Will Fuller being a game-time decision. We will not only need to know if Fuller is active or not, but if he is active, how effective or limited he may be. As a result, this is a tricky market to peg right now.
Luckily, there’s already a great deal of value to be had in their rushing props, so that’s where we should shift our focus.
Carlos Hyde’s Rushing Yards
The Bills are a run funnel defense that tends to focus on shutting down opponents’ passing game on the boundaries, but can be attacked on the ground. With the Texans as 3-point home favorites, I can see them leaning on Hyde in the first round of the playoffs.
They were able to let Hyde rest a bit in Week 17 by giving him only four carries in what was a meaningless game for them. He could be set for a 20-carry game on Saturday. I’m projecting him to have 17.5 carries, which gives him a 70.5-yard median projection.
FanDuel is currently offering 63.5 for this market — he clears that number 58.8% of the time in my sims, making this worthy of a bet at or below that number.
Target Bet: Over 63.5 (or Fewer) Rushing Yards
Titans Prop Bets & Picks
Ryan Tannehill’s Passing Yards
Tannehill has resurrected his career for the Titans and was a key factor in their run to the postseason. However, this is a brutal opening draw for him and I anticipate the Titans will lean on Derrick Henry in what should be a tight game.
I have Tannehill’s median projection at 227.5 passing yards, which means we should consider the under at 237.5 yards or higher.
Target Bet: Under at 237.5 (or More) Yards
Tannehill’s Passing Touchdowns
I have him projected for 1.29 passing touchdowns, which comes out to fair odds of: Over 1.5 (+169); Under 1.5 (-169).
Derrick Henry’s Rushing Yards
Henry is set to have a massive workload in this matchup as the Titans will look to avoid the Patriots’ stingy pass defense. I have his median projection at 94 yards, and most books are offering this prop at 88.5 yards, which is showing a 58.2% win probability.
A huge part of player prop betting is line shopping to make sure you’re always getting the best number. It’s also key to know when to bet a prop to also get the best number and anticipate if a prop is likely to move up/down. In this case, I feel like Henry’s line will only go up.
I would expect most bettors to play his over, so I would snag the over before it moves up.
Target Bet: Over 88.5 (or Fewer) Yards
A.J. Brown’s Receiving Yards
A.J. Brown vs. Stefon Gilmore will be the premier head-to-head matchup in this game. Gilmore is a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year, but has been beaten by John Brown and DeVante Parker over the past two games.
Brown, meanwhile, has established himself as a budding superstar at his position and is becoming matchup proof. I have him projected for 4.4 receptions, but at a lower yards per catch rate than his 20.2 rate this season. I also have him averaging around 14.8 yards per catch against Gilmore. Brown’s average yards in my simulation is 64.5, but his median is around 57.
I would target the under on any prop at 66.5 or higher, which appears to be where most books are setting this at.
Target Bet: Under 66.5 (or More) Yards
Corey Davis’ Receiving Yards
While the Patriots try to shut down Henry and Brown, it could be Davis who benefits. I have his median projection set at 40.5 yards, and at the time of writing, there’s only one book offering this prop at 41.5.
It’s worth monitoring which books offer for his props because if other lines are just a few yards off, it could trigger a bet from me.
Target Bet: Over 34.5 (or Fewer) Yards; Under 45.5 (or More) Yards
Jonnu Smith’s Receiving Yards
Smith is in a similar position as Davis — he could benefit from the Patriots keying in on Henry and Brown. Smith’s prop market isn’t offering any value as of writing, but that could change if any book drifts outside the ranges I’ve outlined below.
If you’re betting multiple props in a single game, you should pay attention to whether they have a negative correlation. For example, you wouldn’t want to have the under on Brown’s, Davis’ and Smith’s receiving yard props. I would typically limit it to two of those players if I’m betting the same side (over or under), and I don’t have a strong position on the quarterback passing yard props being off.
This is why I cherry pick only a few player props from a given matchup rather than betting the entire board. Try to be cognizant of how the props you’re betting correlate with each other.
Target Bet: Over 23.5 (or Fewer) Yards; Under 35.5 (or More) Yards
Patriots Prop Bets & Picks
Tom Brady’s Passing Yards
It’s that time of year, when we’re heading into the playoffs with countless takes of Brady being washed up and the Patriots dynasty unlikely to win another Super Bowl.
I’m likely not going to bet any Brady props this week as I’m fairly close to the market on all of them and don’t see a huge edge in trying to land on either side. I have his median projection at 253.5 passing yards, and most books have the line set at 257.5, which is not enough value to trigger a bet. I would need to see a line north of 265.5 to take the under here.
Target Bet: Under 265.5 (or More) Yards
Sony Michel’s Rushing Yards
Patriot running back prop markets are usually tough to find much value on. They’re typically in-line with my projections, and in order to feel strong about either side, it usually takes a bit of speculation. (More on that later.)
We would need a bad number to trigger a bet on Michel here. My current median projection is 62.5, which is right in-line with the market.
Target Bet: Over at 57.5 (or Fewer) Yards; Under 67.5 (or More) Yards
Mohamed Sanu’s Receiving Yards
I’ve been targeting Sanu’s player props heavily over the past couple games.
This is an example of when speculation works — if Sanu sees positive regression, we can find hidden value in a market that hasn’t stabilized yet. He’s run a route on 100%, 100% and 77% of drop backs over the past three games. His underlying usage is providing a ton of target potential that we haven’t seen quite yet. Not to mention his yards per catch has been extremely low at 8.8. I would expect him to regress toward his 11.2 career-average. As a result, I have his median projection at 33.5.
Only one book is offering this at 30.5, but I’d suspect we could see a book post a line below 30. That’s when I’ll come in on the over for his third straight game.
Target Bet: Over 29.5 (or Fewer) Receiving Yards
Julian Edelman’s Receiving Yards
Edelman has been playing at less than 100% lately as he’s been dealing with shoulder and knee injuries. One of the many fallouts from the Patriots failing to earn a first-round bye is that the extra rest could have allowed Edelman to be closer to 100% for the playoffs.
I have no doubt that he’ll gut it out and be Brady’s top option this week. However, my median projection for Edelman is 60.5 receiving yards. I’ve seen some books post this as high as 65.5 yards, which is just shy of the target number I’m looking for.
Target Bet: Under 66.5 (or More) Yards
Koerner is 179-133-3 (57.4%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.