Patrick Mahomes Tracking Historically Low Betting Percentage in AFC Championship Game

Patrick Mahomes Tracking Historically Low Betting Percentage in AFC Championship Game article feature image

Mitchell Leff/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.

Sunday will be Patrick Mahomes' 93rd career start in the NFL.

In all of his previous starts, Mahomes has closed with a spread ticket percentage of 40% or higher, according to Action Labs.

As of now, Mahomes and the Chiefs are holding steady at a spread ticket percentage of 31% this week in Arrowhead Stadium against the Bengals.

If Kansas City closes below 41% of spread tickets, it would be the least-bet game of Mahomes' career.

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Obviously, the spread ticket percentage holds a bit less weight than usual this week with the line itself taking the market on a rollercoaster unlike anything we've ever seen in the playoffs.

The Chiefs opened up as 3-point favorites, which quickly turned into the Bengals as 2.5-point favorites in less than 48 hours. Now, the Chiefs are back to 1.5-point favorites.

As a whole, Mahomes has only closed below 50% of spread tickets in 14 games and he is 12-2 straight up and 8-6 against the spread in those games.

Both of those straight up losses came at the hands of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

When focusing in on just the playoffs, Mahomes has only closed with under 50% of spread tickets four times prior to Sunday and he is 4-0 straight up:

  • 2023 Divisional: Chiefs (-9.5 & 42% of tickets); beat Jaguars, 27-20
  • 2021 AFC Championship: Chiefs (-3 & 49% of tickets); beat Bills, 38-24
  • 2021 Divisional: Chiefs (-7.5 & 47% of tickets); beat Browns, 22-17
  • 2019 Divisional: Chiefs (-4 & 41% of tickets); beat Colts, 31-13

The last time Patrick Mahomes started a game with a spread ticket percentage below 40%?

Mahomes' last game in college for Texas Tech against Baylor, where the Red Raiders closed with 39% of tickets and beat the Bears 54-35 as 4-point underdogs.

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