The Houston Texans (2-3) and Seattle Seahawks (4-2) meet in the second game of a Monday Night Football doubleheader on October 20. Kickoff is set for in 10:00 p.m. ET from Lumen Field in Seattle, Was. MNF will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Seahawks are favored by -3 with the over/under set at 41 total points. Seattle is a -170 favorite to win outright, while Houston is +145 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Monday Night Football preview and Texans vs Seahawks prediction.
Texans vs Seahawks Prediction
- Texans vs Seahawks pick: Texans +3.5 (-125); bet to +3
My Texans vs Seahawks best bet is on the Texans to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Texans vs Seahawks Odds
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 41 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 41 -110o / -110u | -170 |
Texans vs Seahawks Monday Night Football Preview
The Seahawks and Texans feature two of the best defensive lines in the NFL — both have the ability to pressure the quarterback consistently.
The Texans blitz at a top-10 rate while Seattle gets the job done with its front four by rotating fresh defenders in, rarely sending extra rushers.
Any quarterback would have quite the challenge facing these two defenses.
Still, for Sam Darnold and C.J. Stroud, the lack of a rushing attack for each offense will create unfavorable down-and-distance situations. Points will be at a premium in this game, with this total sitting at the second-lowest of the entire Week 7 slate.
For Stroud and the Texans, the use of pre-snap motion and play-action has steadily increased each game this season. This has assisted the offensive line in protection and has created more defined reads for Stroud.
Houston has ascended to 11th-best in pressure rate allowed, which is an accomplishment in itself given the lack of talent on the offensive line.
Stroud has thrown to his first read on 71.5% of his attempts this season. That is the fifth-highest mark for any quarterback this season who has played in at least three games. This may sound like a negative, but remember, any system that isn’t quarterback-friendly is a bad offensive system.
For context, the two quarterbacks directly in front of him in this metric are Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes. I’m optimistic that Houston offensive coordinator Nick Kaley has things heading in the right direction. Stroud has completed 81.8% of his passes over his last two games.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans had two weeks to prepare his defense for this game, and most of that preparation was certainly focused on stopping the receiver who commands the highest target share of any player in football: Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks' WR1 has been targeted on a ridiculous 36.4% of all Seahawks passing attempts this season.
Through five games, the Texans have fared very well in defending the top target of the opposing offense, especially when that player predominantly plays on the outside of the formation.
Smith-Njigba has played 81% of his snaps on the outside; the Texans rank second in completion percentage allowed to outside receivers. Houston has allowed just 45 yards per game to opposing WR1s, the third-fewest for any defense.
In a battle of elite receivers, it's the Texans' Nico Collins who will have the greater impact. The Seattle defense has dropped to 22nd in EPA/play, with the secondary dealing with several key injuries.
Cornerback Devon Witherspoon should make his return to the lineup on Monday, but he may not be 100% recovered from a knee injury. Safety Julian Love and cornerback Tariq Woolen are also working through injuries and face uphill battles to be in the lineup.
Even if Woolen does return, he has seen a recent dip in performance, grading out 103rd of 107 qualifying cornerbacks.
Texans vs Seahawks Prediction, Betting Analysis
Seahawks head coach Mike McDonald has fared poorly as a home favorite during his tenure, covering the spread at just a 33% rate.
In what I project to be a low-scoring affair, Houston will be well-prepared coming off a bye week to negate the pass rush of the Seattle defense.
I am comfortable playing the Texans down to +3.
Pick: Texans +3.5 (-125, bet365); bet to +3
Spread
My bet for this MNF game is the Texans to cover the spread (+3.5 to +3).
Moneyline
I have no bet for either moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm passing on the game total.
