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NFL Predictions, Week 8 Picks: Bets Our Expert Made Right Away

NFL Predictions, Week 8 Picks: Bets Our Expert Made Right Away article feature image
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Albert Cesare/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images. Pictured: Mike Tomlin.

Every Sunday night, I reveal the early NFL bets I made before the following week. NFL lines tend to move quickly so it's important to assess the information at hand and try to make the best betting decisions early if you can.

Here are the NFL Week 8 picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.

Last year, my early NFL hot reads went 21-15-2 (58%) against the spread (ATS); the previous year checked in at 23-9-1.

NFL Week 8 Picks & Predictions

Packers vs Steelers Picks

Packers Logo
Sunday, Oct. 26
8:20 p.m. ET
NBC
Steelers Logo
Picks: Steelers +3.5; Steelers Moneyline

The Aaron Rodgers Bowl has arrived!

While it's weird to see Rodgers in black and gold — and Micah Parsons in green and gold — there are still some things that never change.

In this case, it's our first rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot of the season.

From Week 5-forward as an underdog, Tomlin is 51-23-1 (69%) against the spread (ATS) by 3.5 PPG. That includes an 18-4-1 (82%) ATS mark as a home 'dog of seven points or fewer. He's also 16-7 straight up (SU) in these games, winning by 4.7 PPG.

This is when you want to back Tomlin. Coming off a loss in which they allowed at least 28 points, the Steelers are 40-16-2 (71%) ATS.

Listed as 3.5-point favorites, the Packers are getting too much respect here. I'd personally have the Packers around -1 or -2.

The Packers offense has maxed out at 27 points this season outside of their 40-point outburst against the Cowboys. Green Bay is reliant on explosive plays and head coach Matt LaFleur's tendency to play slow keeps the opposition in the game.

I know the Steelers' pass defense was just ripped apart, but that was against the likes of Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins — the Packers don't have the same caliber receivers on their team.

The Packers have been playing with fire of late as they've involved in tight games with the Browns, Cowboys, Bengals and Cardinals. Coming off Thursday Night Football, the Steelers have a bit of extra time to prepare for this game as well, giving Tomlin all he needs to scheme up something good.

I want the hook and I'm not waiting around.

Pick: Steelers +3.5 (ESPN Bet)

Playbook

I'm not stopping there with this game.

Remember, these Steelers picks don't have to make sense; honestly, they never do.

I was on the Steelers to lose to the Bengals on TNF even though that didn't make sense on paper. Just remember the trends I mentioned above — Tomlin's teams have a 12-win pace in spots like these, basically a division-winning team as an underdog.

The moneyline ROI in this spot is 69%; Tomlin's almost 2x more profitable than any coach.

Pick: Steelers Moneyline +155 (ESPN Bet)

Author Profile
About the Author

Brandon Anderson is a staff writer at the Action Network, specializing in NFL and NBA coverage. He provides weekly NFL power rankings and picks for every game, as well as contributing to NBA analysis, regularly appearing on the BUCKETS Podcast. With a deep background in sports betting and fantasy football, Brandon is known for spotting long-shot futures and writing for various outlets like Sports Illustrated, BetMGM, and more before joining the Action Network.

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