Welcome back to the NFL Pick Six.
Early each week, I look ahead to the upcoming NFL slate and parlay six moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — for the week to come. It's a quick early look at the next games on tap, and we're already off to a good start after nailing out first Pick Six at +630 last week with barely even a sweat!
And like any good pick six, we'll wrap up each week with my Extra Point, which is one more thing you need to know — often a future to bet as we flip the calendar to another new NFL week.
Last week, we grabbed Seattle S Nick Emmanwori at +6000 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. One week later, he's listed at +400 at DraftKings, third in odds.
It's an odd Week 7 slate as the bye weeks hit full steam with six teams off. That leaves only 12 weekend games, and right now, eight of the 12 feature a favorite of at least six points!
There's not much value parlaying six heavy favorites for around +300, so this week we're grabbing two underdogs, pairing them with four big favorites, and going along for the ride, with odds of +2019 at FanDuel at the time of writing.
NFL Moneyline Picks — Week 8 Parlay
Ravens 1st Half Moneyline
vs Bears; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Ravens are coming out of their bye week, which probably means this is about as healthy as they will get all season.
Lamar Jackson is practicing and looks set to return along with key blockers LT Ronnie Stanley and FB Patrick Ricard. The Ravens should also get a number of key defenders back and will likely unveil Kyle Hamilton in a new role with recently-acquired Alohi Gilman at safety.
That should mean a new look for both the offense and defense after two weeks off, which is difficult for the opponent to prepare for, giving Baltimore an early edge.
The Bears defense looks improved for now, but they have benefited from forcing 15 turnovers over the last four games.
Teams that are favored by a touchdown or less at home are 57% against the spread (ATS) in the first half coming off a bye, and Jackson has been a first-half god in his career at 60-36-2 ATS (63%). A first-half angle lets us avoid a backdoor Bears cover against a porous Baltimore defense.
We don't need the Ravens to cover the -3.5 first-half spread — just not get outscored. Take the first-half moneyline, and come back for the Extra Point below for a couple other ways to invest in the Ravens going forward.
Eagles Moneyline
vs Giants; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Yes, we just saw this game a couple weeks ago, and it did not go well for the Eagles.
Philadelphia is feeling much better after Sunday's win in Minnesota, with Jalen Hurts putting on one of the best passing performances of his career. And the Giants aren't exactly feeling great after allowing 33 fourth-quarter points in a stunning loss to the Broncos.
Despite what we saw that Thursday night, the Eagles have dominated this rivalry in recent years. Even including that game, the Eagles have won seven of the last nine meetings. The other loss was a meaningless Week 18 game, and those seven victories were all by at least six points, with an average margin of victory at 18.4 PPG.
We're still waiting for on a breakout game from Saquon Barkley. Maybe it comes against his old team — the Giants are ranked 31st in Rushing Defense by DVOA.
If not, Philadelphia's passing attack should continue to roll — buoyed by the potential absence of Giants CB Paulson Adebo — and Vic Fangio's defense should be much more ready for Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo after seeing them recently.
This is probably the softest spot left on Philadelphia's schedule. The Eagles need to get over the line and head into the bye week for a reset.
Buccaneers Moneyline
at Saints; Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
This admittedly isn't the greatest spot for the Buccaneers on short rest — and with Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin already ruled out — and Tampa Bay's bye week on tap, but that's already being priced into the soft line.
The Saints are fighting hard most weeks but remain one of the worst teams in the league, and the Bucs have won five of the last six meetings. Only one of the last 18 matchups between these division rivals have finished with a margin under seven points, so typically the winning team takes care of business easy.
New Orleans is playing its first game without star C Cesar Ruiz, and the offensive line cratered without him last season — one of those games a 24-point loss to the Bucs.
The Bucs will also have an edge in this game that they probably won't have in any other matchup all season — on special teams, where their No. 31 ranking still dwarfs the awful Saints (who are dead last with a bullet), eliminating a hidden weakness that has plagued the Bucs all season.
It's never easy to win a divisional game on the road, but we'll trust the Bucs to get a key division game one way or another.
Cowboys Moneyline
at Broncos; Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
We've reached the first of two upset picks as I continue to hunt ways to fade the Broncos.
It wasn't very fun sitting on Jets and Giants moneyline tickets in the fourth quarter the last two weeks, but we certainly got our money's worth.
These Cowboys are far better than either New York squad — at least on offense. Dallas's defense is pitiful, but I'm not sure Bo Nix is playing well enough for the Broncos to hang a huge crooked number on the Cowboys. That means Dallas should hang around and have a shot with the way its offense is playing.
Is any QB in the league playing better right now than Dak Prescott? He's absolutely on fire and should be even better now that CeeDee Lamb is back, and I love an opportunity to invest in a great QB and top offense against an overrated Denver defense.
The Broncos are tremendous front runners, but Vance Joseph's defense continues to struggle against top offenses. Denver has faced only one great offense this season and allowed the Colts to put up 473 yards and 29 points.
In the last calendar year, the Broncos have faced a top-12 offense by DVOA seven times. They're allowing 29.2 PPG in those matchups, including allowing 30, 31, 34 and 41 points.
The Cowboys can score on this defense, especially since Brandon Aubrey may well kick a 70-yarder at some point this game.
I love this spot for the Cowboys, and this looks like a great spot to invest in Dallas futures with the struggling Cardinals and Raiders up next. Win here and Dallas could be 6-3-1 before you know it.
You can play Dallas over 7.5 wins at -115 (BetRivers) or play exact division outcome as Eagles-Cowboys-Commanders-Giants at +240 (bet365) if you think the Cowboys can score enough to win games but also allow too many points to make a real run.
If you want to be more aggressive, Dallas has some juice at +600 (Caesars) to win the NFC East, a great chance to fade the overrated Eagles and a bargain price with FTN giving the Cowboys around 20% to win the division, an implied +400 ticket.
Feel free to play two or all three as a Cowboys escalator if you like this spot against the Broncos.
Steelers Moneyline
vs Packers; Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
I already bet the SteelersSunday night on the Hot Read so let's get right to the point — it's our first Rah Rah Mike Tomlin underdog spot of the season.
I played the Bengals moneyline last week in an upset win against the Steelers, which was a great spot to fade a Pittsburgh team that plays down to its opposition.
Now, we've got the opposite. This is when you play Tomlin teams — coming off a loss, with extra rest, at home, as underdogs of a touchdown or less.
Ready for a crazy stat?
From Week 5-forward in Tomlin's career, the Steelers as an underdog of seven or less playing at home after a loss are an unbelievable 16-7 straight up! That's a crazy record as an underdog, rewarding bettors with a 69% ROI on the moneyline.
Pittsburgh's defense cratered against the Bengals, but the Packers don't have the receivers to hurt the Steelers.
The Steelers will need to limit Green Bay's explosive passing plays, but they should be able to run the ball and keep this close, and you know Aaron Rodgers will relish a chance to put an L on his old team.
The Packers keep playing with their food. They barely beat the Cardinals with a late score last week and led the Bengals by only six points late the week before. The Packers tied the Cowboys in that crazy shootout, and they let the Browns hang around and come back to win.
If you let Tomlin's Steelers hang around in spots like this, they typically make you pay. Let's end Sunday with an upset.
If you like Pittsburgh to steal a win here, there's probably actually value on a +135 division ticket at this point (FanDuel).
Chiefs Moneyline
vs Commanders; Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Let's not make this too complicated.
It looks like Jayden Daniels will miss this game, and Washington's top three receivers were also out last week and look like question marks again.
Add all that up and this looks like a spot for the Commanders to punt and get healthy, especially in a non-conference game as huge underdogs.
The Chiefs are back and look as good as anyone. The offense is rolling again with Rashee Rice back, and the defense has found better answers in recent weeks.
Let's just say I'm making alternate plans on Monday night.
If our ticket makes it to Monday, we should be sitting pretty.
NFL Week 8 Moneyline Parlay
- Ravens 1st Half Moneyline
- Eagles Moneyline
- Buccaneers Moneyline
- Cowboys Moneyline
- Steelers Moneyline
- Chiefs Moneyline
Anderson's Extra Point
Ravens Futures: Lamar Jackson & Derrick Henry
It's absolutely wild that the Ravens are effectively even odds to make the playoffs right now, even after a 1-5 start with one of the league's worst defenses.
And yet — I'm not here to tell you to fade Baltimore either.
The Ravens were one of my highest rated teams in recent years entering the season before things went totally off the rails. This team is crazy talented — if they can figure things out, the division still looks very winnable.
Their schedule is also crazy easy.
The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead.
I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets.
Could Jackson come back with a vengeance and tear up that soft schedule to lead the league in touchdown passes?
He's +3000 to do so at bet365. Jackson threw for 10 TDs in four games and has an extra game with the bye passed, so that 2.5/game puts him on pace for 37.5 scores even with the missed games. The leader in this category is on pace for 41.
Jackson has an outlier TD rate so far this year but he has led the league in that stat twice before, including last season, so it might not be an outlier at this point. He's +105 to hit 30 pass TDs and +420 to get to 35 at FanDuel if you want to ride the escalator.
This also looks like a nice buy low spot on Derrick Henry.
Even with a slow start, he's on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down.
Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon.
Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons.
We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time.
It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.
