With a 7-game early window ahead of us this week, are we headed for another chalk fest? Big stories this week include the Colts as big favorites, the Ravens new life and Aaron Rodgers chance at betting history against the Packers.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 8 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Oct. 21, at 2 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
The Magician
Indiana Jones
Daniel Jones knows something about overcoming expectations. Colts are 6-1 SU this season after entering the regular season with a win total of just 7.5.
The only recent example dating back to the start of the 2015 season of a team starting 6-1 SU after a win total below 8? The Giants in 2022, who started 6-1 SU after a win total of 7 entering the season led by QB … Daniel Jones. Giants made the playoffs and won a playoff game.
Early Chalk
Favorites Dominate
Closing favorites are now 34-18 ATS (65%) in the 1p ET Sunday window this season. These closing favorites are .500 ATS or better in all seven weeks, including 5-1 ATS in Week 7 with the Jets as the only loss.
NFC Domination
Great Start
Through seven weeks, the NFC is 26-12 ATS (25-13 SU) in its 38 games vs. the AFC this season. The NFC is .500 ATS or better in all seven weeks of the year. A $100 bettor taking every NFC team vs. AFC would be up $1,188 for a +31.3% ROI.
That 26-12 ATS mark for the NFC is the best record for either conference through 7 weeks in the Wild Card era (since 1990). We have eight NFC vs. AFC matchups this week:
Vikings at Chargers
Bears at Ravens
Dolphins at Falcons
49ers at Texans
Bills at Panthers
Packers at Steelers
Cowboys at Broncos
Commanders at Chiefs
Turning Point
Bears Streak
Bears are on a 4-game SU and ATS winning streak.
Chicago hasn’t covered the spread in four straight games since 2018 under Mitch Trubisky, also their last 4-game SU/ATS win streak. Their last 5-game SU/ATS win streak came that same season with Trubisky and Chase Daniel.
Fun For All
National Tight Ends Day
For the 7th time officially, this week is "National Tight Ends Day" on Sunday. Last year we saw 15 different TE's score in Week 8, the most we've officially had on the day. For comparison, in the five previous official TE weeks, no more than 11 TE's scored a TD.
Tight End TD — Last Three National TE's Day
2024, 15
2023, 7
2022, 5
2021, 8
Wentz Watch
Mr. Thursday Night
Carson Wentz will get the start for the Vikings on Thursday Night Football this week with JJ McCarthy still hobbled by his injury. Wentz is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in his career playing on a Thursday. In both TNF games he was listed as an underdog, he won outright.
Every NFL Game For Week 8
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➤Mr. Thursday Night. Carson Wentz is 7-0 SU on Thursday Night Football (6-1 ATS). In both TNF games he was listed as an underdog, he won outright.
Carson Wentz has the most wins without a SU loss on Thursday of any QB in the Super Bowl era. This will be the 4th different team Wentz will start for on TNF: 1-0 w/ WAS, 1-0 w/ IND and 5-0 w/ PHI.
Carson Wentz record by day of week as starting QB:
Thursday: 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS
Rest of week: 42-48-1 SU, 41-50 ATS
➤In three straight weeks the underdog has won outright on Thursday Night Football:
Week 5: 49ers (+7.5) over Rams
Week 6: Giants (+7.5) over Eagles
Week 7: Bengals (+5.5) over Steelers
Entering this 3-game win streak for dogs, underdogs on TNF were 10-30 SU in their previous 40 games dating back to early 2023. Underdogs haven’t won three in a row outright on TNF since Sept/Oct of 2020 and they last won 4 straight back in 2018-19.
➤Home favorites on a Thursday are 99-82-3 ATS (55%) over the last 20 years.
39-43 ATS in September and October, but 60-39-3 ATS in November and December.
➤Jim Harbaugh is 28-14-2 ATS in September and October in the NFL. When his team is coming off a loss in the early months they are just 6-5-1 ATS, failing to cover two in a row.
➤Both the Vikings and Chargers will play this game on short rest this week.
Under Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers are 4-0 SU/ATS this year on short rest during the regular season. Their one loss came on the road against the Texans in the playoffs. At home on short rest, Harbaugh is 3-0 SU/ATS with the Chargers.
➤ Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are now 5-8-1 ATS when playing a game on any extended rest after the loss to the Eagles last week, including just 2-8-1 ATS when he is an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less.
The game after Minnesota is playing on extended rest, Vikings are 8-4 SU under O’Connell.
➤ Vikings allowed 28 pts against the Eagles last week, which included a few big plays by DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown. Here are Vikings last 3 road games after allowing 28+ pts in their previous game
L 27-9 at Rams
L 30-20 at Rams
L 30-20 at Lions
➤Chargers lost by 14 pts at home last week, and now play at home again trying to bounce back quick. Teams off a home loss of 14+, who play at home again in their next game, but on short rest are just 15-22 ATS since 2003, failing to cover the spread by 3.9 PPG.
Even after a loss at home by more than one possession, teams are just 43% ATS when the play at home again on short rest.
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➤Is Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allegier in for a big day? Last three weeks, RBs have dominated the Dolphins defense.
Quinshon Judkins: 22 RA, 80 yds, 3 TD
Kimani Vidal: 18 RA, 124 yds
Rico Dowdle: 23 RA, 206 yds, TD
Even before Rico, Breece Hall and Braelon Allen went for over 100 rush yds on 18 carries and then James Cook had 100+ yds and a TD vs. Dolphins before that.
➤Dolphins are coming off a week to forget with 11 penalties, going 0-2 in the red zone and 1-of-13 on third down against the Browns.
Not easy to fix things. Since 2020, teams off 11+ penalties and a game with no red zone touchdowns are just 8-15 ATS in their next game.
➤ From a record standpoint, the difference between Tua at home and on the road is drastic.
On the road or neutral site, Tua is 13-21 SU (14-19-1 ATS), including 1-9 SU in his last 10 starts. When his opponent in that away game is .500 SU or better on the season, Miami is 5-15 SU and 7-12-1 ATS in those games.
When Tua’s opponent is coming off a win in this spot, Miami is 0-4 SU in the last 5 seasons, scoring 17 pts or less in all four games.
➤For Tua, it also bleeds into his second half play. In his career, Tua is 33-33-4 against the second half spread – 11-16-2 2H ATS vs. teams .500 SU or better and 20-15-1 2H ATS vs. teams below .500 SU.
Overall, Tua is 1-6 2H ATS this season, worst mark of any QB in the NFL. This season, Dolphins are now 1-6 against the 4th quarter spread and 1-6 against the second half spread – Tua has lost his last five second halves ATS on the road entering this week.
➤The Jets are still winless and now hit the road against the Bengals. In the last 20 years, 0-4 SU or worse teams who play on the road are actually 57-35 ATS (62%), including 1-0 ATS this season already with the Titans.
➤It takes focus to perform off a primetime night game the week before. Under Zac Taylor, Bengals are just 2-6 SU/ATS when playing at home off a night game
When the Bengals are on any extended prep time before a game under Taylor, they are 10-12-1 ATS, 8-7-1 ATS with Joe Burrow and 2-5 ATS with all other QBs. On 10+ days rest without Burrow, Bengals are 0-2 SU/ATS under Taylor, scoring 23 total pts in the two games.
➤Normally, the Bengals are just fine after an AFC North showdown, 19-14-1 SU under Zac Taylor, but they are 16-8-1 SU with Burrow and 3-6 SU under all other QBs.
➤The home-to-home on extended rest has a bit of an overvalue to it. Since 2010, teams to play at home and then play at home again on 10+ days rest are 78-99-4 ATS (44%). This week that is the Ravens and Bengals.
➤With the Bengals, Joe Flacco is 2-0 ATS this season, the first QB to start 2-0 ATS for Cincinnati since A.J. McCarron back in 2015, Andy Dalton before that in 2011.
➤The streak is finally over. In the first three months of the season — September, October, November — Zac Taylor is now 28-44-1 SU…
27-27-1 SU with Joe Burrow and after last week, 1-17 SU with all other QBs. Taylor gets his 1st win before December with anyone other than Burrow.
➤The bet might be to fade Flacco late. He is 13-21-1 2H ATS since 2019, .500 2H ATS or worse in all seven seasons. In terms of a streak, Flacco hasn’t covered three straight 2H’s ATS since 2018.
➤ Another week, and another backup QB for the Bengals with Joe Burrow out months and not weeks. Overall, Zac Taylor has had to start a backup QB 22 times in Cincinnati — he is 7-15 SU and 10-11-1 ATS in those games.
This will be the 4th time Taylor is a favorite with a backup and he is 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS in those games.
For Flacco, he has closed as a favorite three times since the calendar flipped to 2024 and his teams are 0-3 ATS in those games.
➤Beating the Steelers can take it out of you. Since the start of 2023, teams are 3-13 SU in their game after beating Pittsburgh, losing by 7.8 PPG.
➤The Patriots are on a 4-game SU and ATS win streak, their first 4-game SU/ATS win streak since 2021 under Mac Jones (they had a 7-game SU/ATS win streak).
Beware of a certain fraud nature.Since 2018, teams who are on a 4+ game SU/ATS win streak, who didn’t make the playoffs the year prior are 14-26-1 ATS, including 1-14-1 ATS since 2022. That includes the Patriots and Bears this week.
➤Hard to come back on the Patriots when Drake Maye is playing like this. Maye is completing 81.3% of his passes when New England is ahead this year, 61 of 75 passes, the highest mark for any QB in the NFL.
When the Patriots lead by a TD or more (6+ pts) at any point in the game, they are 5-0 SU/ATS this season, the most SU and ATS wins without a loss for any team this season.
➤Keep Gabriel upright. Since the start of last season, the Browns are 0-14 SU (1-13 ATS) when they allow 3 sacks or more. Under 3 sacks, Browns are 5-5 SU and 6-4 ATS.
➤Browns took care of business last week, demolishing the Dolphins. Under Kevin Stefanski, Browns are 16-24 ATS after a SU win. Cleveland hasn’t covered after a SU win since the 2023 season, they lost five straight games ATS after a SU win since the calendar turned to 2024.
Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Browns are 7-19 ATS – 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Titans.
➤In their last 12 regular season games, the Patriots are 9-3 against the first half spread under Drake Maye. That 9-3 1H ATS mark is tied with the Chiefs for the best mark in the NFL.
➤This is the 3rd time a rookie QB will face a Mike Vrabel-led team on the road.
2023 Bryce Young lost 17-10 in Tennessee
2021 Trevor Lawrence lost 20-0 in Tennesee
➤Dillon Gabriel will be the 6th different Browns QB to go on the road in New England and try and get a win since Mike Tomczak got the W back in 1992 – Baker, Jason Campbell, Derek Anderson, Tim Couch, Vinny Testaverde in between.
➤Browns usually get up for division games through the years. As an underdog of 6 pts or more on the road, the Browns are 4-35 SU and 16-23 ATS since 2014.
That includes a 4-17 SU mark vs. AFC North and an 0-18 SU mark outside their division. Cleveland has lost 21 consecutive road games as an underdog of 6+ pts dating back to their win in Minnesota back in 2013 behind Brian Hoyer against Christian Ponder.
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➤The Eagles haven’t lost consecutive games outright to the Giants in the same season since 2007. Prior to that losing streak for Philly, the Eagles are 28-8 SU against the Giants.
At home in Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts is 28-4 SU as a favorite, losing his last such game a few weeks ago to the Broncos.
➤Hard not to focus on what happened to the Giants last week. Blowing a 19-pt lead entering the 4th quarter, mixed with Denver going three quarters scoreless to score 33 in the 4th to win.
A positive sign:
+ Last decade, teams coming off a road game where they lead by 12+ pts and lost, win 57% of their next games SU.
+ Last decade, teams coming off a road game where they lead by 10+ pts entering the 4th quarter and lost, are 16-9 SU and 15-10-1 ATS.
➤In the Giants-Eagles game two weeks ago, they finished with 51 points, about 10 pts over the closing total. In the last 15 meetings between the Eagles and Giants, the under though is still 10-5 in the series.
➤As with everything else, the Eagles seem to overcome problems to win a majority of the time. After 8 penalties last week, Philly won in Minnesota.
Eagles SU record under Nick Sirianni with…
8+ penalties: 15-8 SU
10+ penalties: 6-3 SU
11+ penalties: 4-1 SU
➤Eagles are in first place in the NFC East with a season point differential of +5, the 2nd-lowest mark of any division leader in the NFL, ahead of just Tampa Bay at -1 atop the NFC South.
Since 2020, we’ve seen five teams enter their 8th game with a 70%+ win percentage and a average pts differential of under a full point, those teams went 2-3 SU/ATS. Only 1 of 5 favorites in this spot since 2003 won and covered the spread (1-4 ATS).
➤Eagles have had their issues in second halves this season. They are 2-5 against 2nd half spread after being 10-4 2H ATS the first seven games of the season in 2023 and 2024 combined.
➤Giants have been efficient in the scoring department in the first half with Jaxon Dart at QB.
13-0 vs. DEN
20-17 vs. PHI
14-16 vs. NO
13-10 vs. LAC
New York has gone over their 1st half team total in all four games with Dart, winning three of those first halves outright.
➤Bills enter this game on a few skids. They have lost two straight outright entering Carolina and they have also lost four straight games ATS.
Just looking at Josh Allen specifically, when he has lost two straight starts, he is 9-1 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in his next game. His one and only 3-game losing streak outright came back in 2019, when he lost three straight to end the season in the playoffs at the Texans.
Over the last decade, 2025 Buffalo is the 5th team to start 4-0 SU and lose two straight. The other four teams won outright to go to 5-2 SU and get back on track and 3 of the 4 teams covered, too. The one who didn’t? Bills in 2020.
Bills are the 3rd team with a preseason win total of 11+ to be on a 2-game SU and 4-game ATS losing streak this early in the season over the last decade, joining the 2022 Packers and Bucs.
➤Panthers are 4-3 SU this season, their first time above .500 SU as a franchise since October of 2021.
Now the next step. Since 2018, Panthers are 7-14 ATS when they play any game while above .500 SU on the season.
Panthers have also won and covered in three straight games for the first time since September of 2021 – 2019 is their last 4-game SU/ATS win streak.
➤Teams in the first 9 games of the regular season are 40-11-2 ATS when they close as underdogs of 7 pts or more at home dating back to 2020.
➤Both the Panthers and Broncos have won three straight gamrs by 7 pts or less. Over the last decade, teams to win 3 straight games by 7 pts or less are just 30-46-2 ATS (40%) in their next game, including 10-26 SU and 12-23-1 ATS when that team is listed as an underdog.
➤Bills have played on the road in Carolina three times in franchise history. Buffalo is 3-0 ATS in those games, including covering their last four games overall against the Panthers dating back to 2009 with the earliest in the streak.
➤The Bills are coming off a full bye week to face the Panthers on the raod. On extra rest during the season in his career, Josh Allen is just 11-15-1 ATS, including 0-2 ATS this season.
Allen is 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS when on a full bye week in his career, averaging 28.1 PPG in those 8 starts. Over the last 20 years, no other QB is even 6-0 SU or better in this spot.
➤Bryce Young is expected to miss this game, being replaced by Andy Dalton.
Since 2023, Bryce has started 35 total games and Andy has started six games. Here is a comp.
BY: 10-25 SU, 17-17-1 ATS, -2.9 ATS margin, 56th EPA/play, 57th success rate
AD: 1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS, -7.9 ATS margin, 39th EPA/play, 49th success rate
Since the start of 2023, 58 different QBs have started at least six games, Dalton’s one ATS cover is thef ewest of the group.
In Dalton’s last six starts dating back to the start of the 2023 season, the over is 5-1, going over the total by 10.8 PPG. Another angle on Andy, in his last 15 starts, Dalton is 4-11 against the 2nd half spread, with his teams fading a bit late in games.
➤The Bears are on a 4-game SU and ATS winning streak.
Chicago hasn’t covered the spread in four straight games since 2018 under Mitch Trubisky, also their last 4-game SU/ATS win streak. Their last 5-game SU/ATS win streak came that same season with Trubisky and Chase Daniel.
Time to exercise past demons. Sunday will be the Bears first game on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak since the playoff vs. the Eagles in 2018-19.
➤The Ravens are 1-5 ATS this season. They are the first team with a preseason regular season win total of 11 or more to start 1-5 aTS since the 2017 Patriots (2015 Seahawks did that prior to them).
Baltimore is a tough team to judge given their preseason expectations, Lamar at QB now after missing games and the spread vs. Chicago – over the last 20 years, teams with a cover pct below 20%, cover 55% of games, but here is their biggest line as a favorite in that span, with Baltimore laying close to a TD this week:
2020 Texans -7 at JAC (W, 27-25)
2010 Cowboys -6.5 vs. JAC (L, 35-17)
2009 Steelers -6 vs. MIN (W, 27-17)
2006 Dolphins -6 vs. GB (L, 34-24)
➤ Bears are 6-0 to their team total over this season, the last undefeated team to the over left in the NFL. Last year, the Bears finished 8-9 to their team total
➤The Bears penalties week-to-week are becoming an issue. They have 6+ penalties in all six games, they are tied for league lead in false starts and lead the league in roughing the passer calls.
➤DeAndre Swift has had the touch over the last two weeks against Washington and New Orleans with 10 carries of 10+ yards, the most for any player in the NFL in that span, he had 5 10+ yard runs against both teams.
➤A bit of a turn. Lamar Jackson was 23-1 SU in 24 games vs. NFC entering their December game vs. Eagles last year. Since then, Lamar has lost to Philly and Detroit, both games at home, turning his record to 24-3 SU vs. the NFC as starting QB of the Ravens.
➤Lamar returns this week after a long layoff nursing his hamstring injury. The closest thing to the layoff Lamar has for this week would simply be Week 1s for him. In his seven Week 1s, Ravens are averaging 33.3 PPG.
If you look at the Ravens off of a bye week under John Harbaugh, they are 14-3 SU and 10-7 ATS in the regular season off a bye and 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS in the playoffs (17-4 SU, 12-9 ATS). Lamar is 7-2 SU and 3-6 ATS in nine starts off a bye weeks.
➤As a head coach, Ben Johnson could be seeing Lamar Jackson for the first time this week – when Lamar faces an opposing head coach for the first time he is 37-8 SU and 24-21 ATS, including 16-2 SU when it’s an NFC team.
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➤The 49ers have struggled mightily after an outright win.
Between 2017-22, Kyle Shanahan began his career 34-23 ATS after a SU win. In the three seasons since, SF is 7-17 ATS after a SU win.
Since Christmas of 2023, the 49ers are 1-13 ATS after a SU win, failing to cover the spread by 7.5 PPG (SF is 7-7 ATS after a SU loss). For some perspective, in this span, Shanahan has just one cover in this spot, so does Bill Belichick with the Patriots, who is 1-0 ATS.
➤Since the start of last season, the 49ers are 6-18 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room, including 0-7 3Q ATS this season.
49ers ended up covering the 2H spread vs. Falcons last week, winning 10-7. Since that same Christmas of 2023 date, SF is now 7-23 against the 2nd half spread in those 30 total games, including 0-6 2H ATS the week after they covered in the 2H.
➤A pretty amazing feat. Since the beginning of the 2020 season, the 49ers have played 16 games at 1p ET on the east coast (EST or CST) – San Francisco has been favored in all 16 games (9-7 ATS). Their last game as an underdog at 1p ET was back in 2019 with Jimmy Garoppolo.
The only other team to not be an underdog in any 1p ET games in that span is the Chiefs.
➤Texans play the 49ers on short rest after MNF. CJ Stroud is 2-5 SU on short rest, including 0-2 SU when starting on short rest off of a loss.
A team on short rest has faced Shanahan’s 49ers 32 times in his nine seasons and the team on short rest is 11-21 SU, including 1-13 SU since the start of the 2022 season. The only better mark for an active head coach? Andy Reid, who is 11-0 SU with the Chiefs.
➤Both the 49ers and Texans are coming off night games last week – last three seasons, when both teams are coming off a night game, the over is 17-9 (65%), going over the total by 7.7 PPG.
➤Texans have had their share of issues playing in primetime as a franchise. They are now 18-31 SU and 15-32-2 ATS in night games after last week.
In Houston’s last ten games after a primetime matchup dating back to 2019, they are 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS.
➤49ers go up against a stingy Texans defense this week, allowing 14.7 PPG on the season.
In San Francisco’s last nine games vs. a defese allowing 17 PPG or less, they are 1-8 ATS. In a road or neutral site, they’ve lost five straight ATS since the start of 2022.
➤Texans are 6-0 against the 4th quarter spread this season,1 of 3 undefeated teams in that category this season with the Panthers and Chiefs. Last season, the Texans were 8-11 4Q ATS.
➤Bucs are 5-2 SU (71.4%) and have a point differential of -1 this season.
They are the first team since 2022 Titans to have that high a win pct and a negative pt differential in their 8th game. The last to close as a favorite was back in 2020 with Browns and Bills and neither ended up covering the spread.
➤ In Baker Mayfield’s career, he has made 21 starts as a favorite against a divisional opponent. His teams are 7-14 ATS in those games. Of 82 different QBs to make a start as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent since Baker was drafted, Mayfield’s mark is the worst in the NFL. He is 4-5 ATS with the Bucs in this spot.
➤As a home underdog since 2020, the Saints are 4-16 SU and 5-15 ATS, that is the worst ATS mark for any team in that span. Spencer Rattler is 0-6 ATS as a home underdog, failing to cover the spread by 10 PPG.
➤As an underdog of under ten points, Spencer Rattler is 0-9 ATS in his career as a starter, failing to cover the spread by 11.4 PPG.
The most recent QB who is winless as a dog under ten pts is Curtis Painter at 0-5 ATS. In terms of the worst marks of any QB last 20 years, Kyler Boller at 3-14 ATS in this spot is right at the top.
➤With the Bucs, Baker has been a wizard in the second half of games against divisional opponents. He is 10-3 2H ATS vs. NFC South with Tampa Bay, he’s covered six in a row. With all other teams, he is 8-17 2H ATS vs. divisional teams.
➤Baker and the Bucs fell apart in the second half vs. Lions last week. Since Baker arrived in 2023, the Bucs are 28-16 against the second-half spread, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL.
When the Bucs lose the 2H ATS in their previous game, Tampa Bay under Baker is 13-2 2H ATS in their next game.
➤Oddly enough, Spencer Rattler has only made two starts vs. the NFC South in his career with the Saints and now his 3rd – all three starts have come against Tampa Bay.
The Bucs outscored the Saints 78-46 in the two meetings with Rattler, with the over hitting in both meetings.
➤Bucs had a tough offensive outing last week, scoring just 9 pts after going just 0-1 in their one red zone trip.
Under Todd Bowles, teams haven’t had the easiest time bouncing back. Overall, Bowles is 10-29 SU the game after scoring under 20 pts in a loss – he is 4-9 SU with the Bucs and he was 6-20 SU with the Jets – he’s just 3-4 SU with Baker in this spot.
When Bowles is on the road in this bounce back spot, his teams are 3-17 SU.
➤Saints have not started strong this season. They are not only 0-7 against the first-quarter spread, but they’ve been outscored 68-16 in the opening frame this year.
They are the only winless team ATS in the first quarter. Saints were 11-6 1Q ATS last year.
➤Broncos made the comeback of all comebacks. Teams who trailed by 14 pts or more at any point and comeback and win in their previous game are 56-75 ATS (43%) over the last decade.
When the comeback team also trailed by more than one possession (9+ pts) entering the 4th, they are 12-30 ATS (29%) in that span.
➤The Broncos have been a house of horrors for the Cowboys in recent history. In the last 30 years, the Cowboys are 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS against Denver. Dallas’ last win vs. Broncos came back in 1995 in a John Elway-Troy Aikman matchup.
Dallas has lost on the road in Denver in thre straight meetings, losing ATS in each – their last win came back in 1992 and last cover in Denver back in 1973, losing six straight on the road ATS in Denver.
➤A change of pace. The Cowboys played a game vs. Commanders last week with a total above 54. Now they face a Broncos with a total of under 50. Last decade, teams in that spot see the under go 38-28-2.
In the last 5 years, the Broncos have only played in two games with a total of 50 or more:
2024 at Bengals, 50.5 (CIN 30-24)
2021 at Cowboys, 50 (DEN 30-16)
➤Cowboys have been playing flawless lately.
They have no turnovers in four straight games, the first time they’ve done that in franchise history. In the last 20 years, teams to go four straight games without a turnover are 32-15 SU and 31-15-1 ATS in that 5th game, with just 16 of those 47 teams staying turnoverless.
➤Bo Nix has started four career games for the Broncos where the over/under closed at 45 or higher – Denver 0-4 SU/ATS in those games. In all other games with lower totals, Nix and the Broncos are 15-6 SU and 14-7 ATS.
As a favorite, Nix is 12-1 SU in his NFL career, including 12-0 as a 2-pt favorite or higher. In Nix’s 13 starts as a favorite, he is also 10-3 2H ATS.
➤Dak has started 15 career games in either the MST or PST with the Cowboys. Dallas is just 6-9 SU and 5-9-1 ATS in those games.
Since the start of the 2018 season, Dak and Dallas are 2-8 SU/ATS when traveling west, failing to cover the spread by 6.3 PPG.
➤Both the Panthers and Broncos have won three straight gamrs by 7 pts or less. Over the last decade, teams to win 3 straight games by 7 pts or less are just 30-46-2 ATS (40%) in their next game.
➤Dallas’ offense has been humming this season, especially at home.
Cowboys home overs are 3-0. Home overs are 15-6 for Dallas last 3 seasons and above .500 to the over in the last 8 seasons. Last two seasons, Cowboys are just 5-7 to the over when they hit the road.
➤For the first time since 2018, Dak and the Cowboys have covered the spread in three straight games when listed as an underdog. Prior to this 3-game stretch, Dak was 2-10 ATS in his previous 12 starts as an underdog dating back to the start of the 2022 season.
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➤Daniel Jones knows something about overcoming expectations. Colts are 6-1 SU this season after entering the regular season with a win total of just 7.5.
Since division realignment in 2002, this is the 11th time a team with a win total below 8 to start 6-1 SU or better.
The only recent example dating back to the start of the 2015 season of a team starting 6-1 SU after a win total below 8? The Giants in 2022, who started 6-1 SU after a win total of 7 entering the season led by QB … Daniel Jones. Giants made the playoffs and won a playoff game.
➤Since the beginning of the 2023 season, the Titans are 0-5 SU/ATS vs. the Colts, failing to cover the spread by 7.1 PPG.
Cam Ward already faced the Colts in Tennessee and lost 41-20 as 6-pt underdogs.
The last time the spread in this series was double-digits for either side was back in 2006 for a Vince Young vs. Peyton Manning matchup.
➤Titans have lost 6 consecutive games ATS vs. the AFC South. Since the start of the 2023 season, Tennessee is 2-12 ATS vs. their own division. No other team in the NFL has fewer than 5 wins in this spot.
Titans have now lost 11 consecutive home games against the spread — the longest home ATS losing streak for any team since the 1970 merger.
➤Colts haven’t closed as an 11-pt favorite or higher since Week 18 of the 2021 season when they closed -14 on the road in Jacksonville, needing a win to get a playoff spot and lost 26-11 with Carson Wentz.
Last time the Colts closed above -14, when they closed -15.5 at the end of the 2020 season against the Jaguars.
Last week, we saw the Chiefs close as above a 10-pt favorite in division, against the Raiders. Over the last 20 years, favs in division above 10 pts are 89-105-3 ATS (45.9%), in November or earlier, they are 43-57-3 ATS (43%).
➤Daniel Jones from a spread and market perspective is on a rocket ship.
Week 3 IND closes -6 at TEN. 3rd-highest line of Jones’ career.
Week 5 IND closes -7.5 vs. LVR. Highest line of Jones’ career.
Week 6 IND closes -8.5 vs. ARI. Highest line of Jones’ career.
Week 8 IND is a 14-pt favorite.
Jones is 4-0 SU as a favorite this season – the only QB 4-0 SU or better as a favorite in 2025. Jones was 8-6 SU as a favorite entering this season and never had a season with more than 3 SU wins as a favorite.
➤Here’s the ridiculous stat on Daniel Jones and pressure this season. He has 82 dropbacks under pressure, his 62.7% completion pct is 2nd in NFL to Dak, but he has 0 turnover worthy plays in the 82 dropbacks under pressure.
The next-closest QB to Jones in dropbacks with 0 turnover worthy plays under pressure? Joe Burrow with 20, who hasn’t played since middle of Week 2.
➤Colts offense is averaging 3.46 pts per drive. For reference, the 2007 Patriots averaged 3.19 pts/drive for the entire season.
➤Aaron Rodgers for the first time in his career will face the Green Bay Packers on the other sideline. Rodgers has faced all other 31 teams, both beating each of those 31 teams outright and covering the spread in at least one game vs. all the other 31 teams.
Rodgers can become the 5th QB to beat all 32 teams outright if he beats GB this week, joining Brett Favre, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Drew Brees.
Brady – Didn’t cover vs. NE (0-1 ATS)
Peyton – Didn’t cover vs. IND (0-4 ATS)
Favre – Pushed vs Texans (0-0-1 ATS), Didn’t cover vs. NYJ (0-4-1 ATS)
If Rodgers covers vs. Packers, he would join just Drew Brees as the only QB to beat and cover at least one game vs. all 32 teams.
➤The bounce back Mike Tomlin spot. Off a loss, Tomlin is 61-46 ATS as coach of the Steelers (57%). He is 25-14 ATS as an underdog off of a outright loss, including 12-3 ATS as a home dog off a SU loss.
Tomlin has been listed as a home underdog in 32 games as coach of the Steelers, he is 19-13 SU and 22-7-3 ATS as a home dog.
Coaches above .500 SU as a Home Dog Last 20 Years (min. 15 games)
Mike Tomlin: 19-13 SU
Pete Carroll: 17-14 SU
Mike Vrabel: 13-10 SU
Bruce Arians: 12-8 SU
Since 2017, Steelers are 28-22 ATS off of a SU loss. When Pittsburgh is on any extended prep time after the loss, they are 11-3 ATS, on normal rest or less, they are just 17-19 ATS after a loss.
➤The defense hasn’t arrived for Jordan Love on the road yet. In his career, Love is 0-6 SU on the road when he scores fewer than 20 pts, 10-5-1 SU when he scores 20+ pts.
➤We’ve noted the Steelers struggles on the road on Thursday Night’s – Under Tomlin, Pittsburgh is now 3-8 SU in road division games on short rest, they are 8-11 SU on road short rest games, 2-10 SU on the road on TNF and 0-7 SU on the road on TNF vs. the AFC North.
Since 2010, after the Steelers play on Thursday Night Football, they are 12-3 SU and 9-6 ATS the next week, including 3-2 SU in that spot when listed as underdogs.
➤After the Steelers defense allows 30+ pts on defense under Tomlin, they are 29-12-1 ATS (71%) in their next game. When Steelers are at home after that bad defensive performance, they are 21-8-1 ATS (72%) under Tomlin.
➤It’s been a while since the Packers on a game in Pittsburgh. Green Bay is 0-6 SU in Pittsburgh against the Steelers over the last 50 years. Their last win in Pittsburgh came back in 1970 when Bart Starr lost to Chuck Knoll and Terry Bradshaw.
➤ The Chiefs have already played four primetime games this season and this is their 5th in the first 8 weeks of the season. The only other team to play 5 primetime night games in the first 8 weeks of the regular season was … the Chiefs back in 2017, who went 4-1 SU in that stretch. Chiefs are currently 2-2 SU in night games.
At home in Arrowhead, the Chiefs have won 7 straight home games in primetime outright with Patrick Mahomes. Their last loss came to the Eagles during regular season in 2023. Since 2020, Mahomes is 20-3 SU at home in night games with losses to Hurts, Goff and Josh Allen.
➤Since 2022, Chiefs have played six games after facing the Raiders. 1-5 ATS in those games, winning none of those six games by more than one possession.
➤The Chiefs have had crazy success against the Washington franchise dating back in history. KC is 10-1 SU/ATS against Washington in franchise history, with their last loss coming in 1983 with Joe Theismann beating KC at home in Washington. KC is 8-0 SU/ATS vs. Washington in the last 40 years.
➤ Monday Night Football is a unique animal. Jayden Daniels has made two career starts after facing the Bears two weeks ago. Jayden is 1-1 SU/ATS, but more importantly, score 24 pts or more in both games.
Since 2020, Washington is actually 4-1 SU on MNF, averaging 26.8 PPG in those matchups.
➤Commanders and Chiefs play both play on extended rest here on Monday Night Football. Since 2018, when both teams are on extended rest, the under is 114-71-3 (61%).
➤As a head coach, Dan Quinn is 11-9 SU on the 2nd game or later of any road trip. Since his 1st season in 2015, Quinn has profited a $100 bettor $600 in this spot, 4th-best of 98 HC in that span.
➤Since the start of 2023, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 33-15 (69%), going under the total in that 2H by 3.6 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
➤Chiefs beat the Raiders 31-0 last week. Since 2019, we’ve only seen five teams shutout an opponent and then close above a TD favorite the next week (-7.5 or higher), those teams went 5-0 SU and covered the spread by an average of 8.3 PPG in those matchups.
After Mahomes wins by 21+ pts, he’s 12-1 SU, but when he’s favored by above a FG, he’s 2-6-1 ATS after a big win.
➤When simply looking at their chances to win a game they shouldn’t, here is how both QBs for Washington have performed as underdogs over the last four seasons.
Jayden Daniels: 6-6 SU, 27.8 PPG for WAS
Marcus Mariota: 3-8 SU, 20.5 PPG for WAS/ATL
Mariota has lost five straight strarts outright when listed as an underdog,
➤Mahomes is just 5-12-1 ATS vs. AFC West since 2022 even after last week’s cover against the Raiders. The remarkable thing for Pat? After he covers the spread vs. a division opponent, he is 14-3 ATS in his career, covering the spread by 7.6 PPG, no let down. When he’s at home in that spot, 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Matches here below are the teams facing the "hot" teams. Teams on a win streak off a big win, go the other way.
Matches: BAL, CLE, TEN
System: Watch for big line moves. Check matches via Bet Labs or updated lines, but these big moves are 43.4% ATS since 2021.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: Looking to ID underperforming teams who are underdogs this week.
Matches: NO, MIA, CLE, NYG, WAS
System: Dumpster diving. Bet the teams nobody wants.
Matches: NYJ, MIA
System: Some dome vs. dome unders.
Matches: LAC/MIN
