Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 55 Prop Picks: 3 Ways to Bet the Chiefs QB Sunday vs. Bucs
Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes
- We're betting a handful of Patrick Mahomes props on Sunday for Super Bowl 55, including him scoring the first touchdown (with his legs) at north of 20-1.
- We're also taking him over 19.5 rushing yards, and under 28.5 completions.
- Get our full breakdowns for Mahomes' props below.
The big storyline entering Super Bowl 55 is the matchup between the most recent Super Bowl MVP, Patrick Mahomes, and a four-time winner of the award, Tom Brady.
All eyes will be on Brady and Mahomes during the game, and that’s no different in the betting world. The game will likely be decided by their play, and so will a lot of bets in the props world.
Mahomes is one of the most electrifying players in the NFL, and his right arm and legs will play a big factor in the Super Bowl, which is reflected by our experts’ picks for his best player props.
Here’s how our experts are going to bet the Chiefs’ superstar against the Buccaneers.
Patrick Mahomes Under 28.5 Completions
Sean Koerner: My projection of 329.5 passing yards is slightly higher than the market, which has settled at 325.5 yards.
It’s hard not to love Mahomes in this spot: The Chiefs will lean on him even more against a pass funnel defense like Tampa Bay’s unit. However, a four-yard difference isn’t enough to trigger a bet — that’s why I find it interesting that my projections are showing quite a bit of value in him going under his completion prop.
Mahomes is averaging 12.1 yards per completion this season, which if you multiply that by 28 completions, would be 339 yards. Think of this prop as a sneaky way to take under 339 yards. He has cleared 28.5 completions in only 6-of-17 games this season (35%).
I’m projecting him to go under this number about 59% of the time, which is worth a bet at -124, which is available at DraftKings as of Saturday.
Patrick Mahomes Over 19.5 Rush Yards
Raheem Palmer: The Chiefs are missing left tackle Eric Fisher and right tackle Mitchell Schwartz while still being a pass-heavy offense, and that should create opportunities for Mahomes to run.
This prop is priced lower than it should be based on the perception that his turf toe injury is still impacting him. While he did rush for just five yards in the AFC Championship, that was two weeks ago in a game that wasn’t competitive midway through the second quarter.
The Buccaneers have a solid pass rush and are prone to blitz, so we should see Mahomes have opportunities to run here. He’s hit this total in nine out of his 16 games this season, so it’s clear he’s hitting this more often than not.
FanDuel is offering the best line as of Saturday at 19.5 (-122). I would play this up to 20.
Patrick Mahomes First TD +2200 & Anytime TD +300
Raheem Palmer: The Chiefs have actually scored the first touchdown in 10 of their 18 games. Mahomes and Hill have each scored three of those 10 touchdowns.
It’s hard not to like Mahomes because he’s always a threat to score anytime the Chiefs are in the red zone. Flash back to last year in Super Bowl 54: Darwin Thompson was stopped at the 1-yard line on first down, and the very next play Mahomes scored on a keeper. With the absence of Fisher and Schwartz on the offensive line, we can assume that Mahomes will be under more pressure, meaning he’ll be making more plays with his legs.
I also don’t see him throwing deep much, and if this team methodically moves the ball down the field with less explosive plays, the Chiefs may find themselves in a similar situation to last year where they have the ball inside the 5-yard line with a chance to score. With the Chiefs not having a true goal-line back, Mahomes typically gets touches.
BetMGM is offering the best odds on him to score first (+2200) and anytime (+300) as of Saturday.