Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?

Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup? article feature image

Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julian Edelman

  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Patriots and Jets players scoring enough points to win your Week 7 fantasy football matchups.

Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.

So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s Patriots-Jets matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 22 points from Julian Edelman? He has an 8.9% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Patriots: Tom Brady, Sony Michel, James White, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Jakobi Meyers
  • Jets: Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots

Sam Darnold, QB, Jets

Sony Michel, RB, Patriots

James White, RB, Patriots

Le’Veon Bell, RB, Jets

Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots

Phillip Dorsett, WR, Patriots

Jakobi Meyers, WR, Patriots

Robby Anderson, WR, Jets

Jamison Crowder, WR, Jets

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