Koerner’s MNF Miracle Odds: Will You Win Your Fantasy Matchup?
Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julian Edelman
- Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Patriots and Jets players scoring enough points to win your Week 7 fantasy football matchups.
Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.
So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?
I simulated tonight’s Patriots-Jets matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 22 points from Julian Edelman? He has an 8.9% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.
Here are the players I’ll touch on:
- Patriots: Tom Brady, Sony Michel, James White, Julian Edelman, Phillip Dorsett, Jakobi Meyers
- Jets: Sam Darnold, Le’Veon Bell, Robby Anderson, Jamison Crowder
Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)