Best Patriots vs. Jets Prop Bets & Picks for Monday Night Football
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jamison Crowder
- Matt LaMarca details three of the best prop bets for Patriots-Jets on Monday Night Football.
- Find our picks for Tom Brady's passing TDs, Jamison Crowder's receiving yards and Jakobi Meyers' receptions below.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Patriots vs. Jets Prop Bets
Now let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Monday Night Football contest between the New England Patriots and New York Jets.
Jets WR Jamison Crowder
THE PICK: Under 49.5 Receiving Yards (-105)
Crowder has thrived in two games with Sam Darnold this season, logging at least nine targets and 98 receiving yards in both. That said, I want absolutely nothing to do with him in this matchup.
Crowder has played 72% of his snaps in the slot this season, which sets up a brutal matchup vs. Jonathan Jones. Jones may not have the same name value as Stephon Gilmore or Jason McCourty, but he’s actually been the Pats’ best cover corner this season (per Pro Football Focus). Overall, he’s allowed 45 receiving yards or fewer in five of his first six games.
The Patriots also rank second in adjusted sack rate, which could spell trouble for the Jets. They’ve allowed 25 sacks through just five games, so Darnold could struggle to get the ball to his WRs.
This Patriots defense is an absolute monster. I’m willing to bet the under on Crowder, Robbie Anderson and DeMaryius Thomas, and I’d play the under on this prop up to -120.
Patriots WR Jakobi Meyers
THE PICK: Over 2.5 Receptions (-143)
Meyers was not selected in the 2019 draft, but that hasn’t stopped this rookie WR from making an impact.
He was impressive during the preseason, recording 20 catches for 253 yards and two touchdowns, and he’s been successful when given a chance during the regular season. He’s managed eight catches on just 10 targets, including four catches last week. He finished second among the Patriots’ WRs in snaps in that contest, and he could see a similar role today with Josh Gordon already ruled out.
Meyers also has an above average matchup vs. the Jets. They ranked merely 17th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA, and Tom Brady racked up 306 yards and 28 completions vs. the Jets in Week 3.
The injury report is worth monitoring here. If Philip Dorsett (questionable) joins Gordon on the sidelines, this bet becomes an absolute smash. That said, I’d still play this prop up to -150 even if Dorsett is active.
Patriots QB Tom Brady
THE PICK: Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-148)
This seems like an excellent time to buy low on Brady. He’s thrown zero touchdowns in two of his past three games, but those games seem like outliers in retrospect.
One of those matchups was against the Bills — who have an excellent defense — and Brady ran in two scores in the other. The Pats defense and special teams has also scored touchdowns at a ridiculous rate this season, which has taken away scoring opportunities from Brady and the offense. They’re due for some regression in that department, which should result in more opportunities for the offense.
Brady passed for two TDs in his first matchup with the Jets, and the Pats are currently implied for 26.5 points tonight.
Brady should be able to get to two TD passes in this matchup more often than not, so I like the over up to -175.