Patriots vs. Jets Picks: How We’re Betting Monday Night Football

Patriots at Jets Betting Odds

• Odds: Patriots -10
• Over/Under: 43
• Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

Odds as of noon ET on Monday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

The New York Jets come into Monday Night Football off a statement win over the Dallas Cowboys, but the public isn't buying Sam Darnold and Co.'s victory enough to back them.

The New England Patriots are still getting a majority of tickets and money as of early Monday afternoon, but is that where the value is?

Our experts reveal how they're betting this double-digit spread as well as a Robby Anderson receiving prop.

Matthew Freedman: Patriots -10

In the history of our Bet Labs database (since 2003), the Patriots are 157-97-8 against the spread (21.3% ROI).

I feel like that trend on its own should be enough. Bill Belichick gets the job done. On average, the typical outcome for a Pats game is a cover of +3.88 points. That's a massive margin.

And Belichick is even less generous against poor opponents. When facing teams that failed to make the playoffs in the previous season, the Patriots are 110-58-5 ATS (27.9% ROI). On average, they've scored 4.79 points more than their non-playoff opponents.

Under the Belichick regime, the Pats have been a "no mercy" franchise. When they face bad teams, they don't just win. They lay it on. They punish their opponents. They humiliate them for even bothering to step onto the field.

In other words, they cover.

It also doesn't hurt that the Pats relative to the Jets will have three extra days to rest and prepare because they played on Thursday Night Football in Week 6.

Sean Koerner: Robby Anderson Under 3.5 Receptions (-115)

Anderson's stock has gone up since Sam Darnold has returned from mono. However, it takes a huge dive based on this matchup, specifically against Stephon Gilmore.

Gilmore won this battle in Week 3 when Anderson dropped a 3/11/0 dud. Granted that was with third-string QB Luke Falk under center, but Anderson failed to gain much separation that day, so we can't put it all on Falk. Tonight should be similar, which makes me think Darnold will likely turn to Jamison Crowder and Demaryius Thomas a bit more, and if they are covered, then dump-offs to Le'Veon Bell will be the final decision.

Under 50.5 receiving yards looks tempting, but with his playing style, it wouldn't shock me if Anderson goes over that number even if he's suffocated by Gilmore. All it takes is one deep ball for Anderson to slip past the defense — his 92-yard touchdown in Week 5 is the longest play of the NFL this season. This is why attacking under 3.5 receptions is much smarter; we can't get burned by one fluky play. It would have to rely on a few plays that he and Darnold are able to connect over Gilmore.

Here are Anderson's probabilities of exact number of receptions according to my projections:

I would bet this specific prop down to -140.