Koerner: Ranking How Much Chiefs & 49ers Players Are Worth to the Super Bowl Spread
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyreek Hill
When it comes to estimating how many points a player is worth against the spread, there are a few factors to consider: Not only do we need to evaluate their importance, but who would replace them and how their team would be able to make up for their loss.
With all of those aspects taken into account, here is how I would rank the value of 15 different players to the Super Bowl 54 spread.
1. Patrick Mahomes: 7-7.5 Points
We saw this very question arise when Mahomes suffered a multi-week injury in Week 7. I had speculated he would be worth 7-9 points at the time, and sure enough, the market ended up adjusting the Chiefs’ Week 8 spread by eight points with Mahomes out.
Backup quarterback Matt Moore ended up having a solid two starts, going 1-1 straight up and ATS. But a lot of credit needs to go to head coach Andy Reid, who was able to alter the Chiefs’ system in a way that allowed a below-average QB like Moore to thrive.
Considering what we saw from the Chiefs without Mahomes earlier this season, I would lower Mahomes’ value to 7-7.5 points.