2022 Super Bowl Odds Tracker Ahead of NFL Playoffs: 49ers Leapfrog the Field; Bills Maintain Analytics Darling Spot

2022 Super Bowl Odds Tracker Ahead of NFL Playoffs: 49ers Leapfrog the Field; Bills Maintain Analytics Darling Spot article feature image
Credit:

Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Image. Pictured: 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Updated Super Bowl 56 Odds

Odds via PointsBet, updated January 16 after the end of the regular season. Confused? Learn more about American odds here, and compare all future Super Bowl futures prices here.

 

Team Odds
Green Bay Packers +350
Kansas City Chiefs +425
Buffalo Bills +500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +500
San Francisco 49ers +900
Tennessee Titans +900
Cincinnati Bengals +1100
Los Angeles Rams +1200
Arizona Cardinals +2500

It’s playoff season, so there’s no better time to look into Super Bowl odds and see where every team stands.

It’s a great way to gauge whether your team is an underdog or one of the favorites heading into the best time of year for any football fan.

And odds movements throughout the year really tell a story about what the broader football community thinks about a particular team.

The Green Bay Packers are the outright favorite to win the Super Bowl after a 13-3 season in which Aaron Rodgers will likely win back-to-back MVPs.

However, the Chiefs, Bills and Bucs aren’t far behind them.

There’s a big pocket of teams after them.

The biggest movers so far this season have been the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys opened during the preseason at around 30-1. They’ve been eliminated but were the No. 1 team in the NFL according to the advanced analytics.

Arizona was around 40-1 in August. Though they started at a 8-1 clip, they’ve struggled down the stretch and have seen their odds become the worst amongst the remaining playoff contenders.

And the Bengals opened the season at 50-1 and are down to 11-1 as we enter the Divisional Round. A convincing win against the Raiders helped them out on that front.

Remember, the prices at one book are not always the best across the market. The hold on these Super Bowl odds from PointsBet is 22%, meaning on average, they’ll keep 22 cents for every dollar wagered, a fairly common price on Super Bowl futures.

On a point spread bet, sportsbooks will keep about four cents per dollar on average. The higher the hold, the more unfair the pricing is for the bettor.

FanDuel has a lot of advantageous prices in the middle of the odds board, for example. So be sure to shop around if you’re in a legal betting state and betting Super Bowl futures.

Who Is the Super Bowl LVI Favorite?

Let’s dive into each key contender below:

1. Green Bay Packers (+350)

The narrative around the Packers isn’t necessarily all roses, but the Packers have become the Super Bowl favorites for good reason. Green Bay boasts two of the best offensive players in the NFL, in their primes and deeply in sync.

Though they haven’t quite dominated teams this year — the trait you want out of the top Super Bowl contender — when Aaron Rodgers is on the field, you’ll take your chances where you can get them.

With the No. 1 seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs locked up, Rodgers looks poised to win back-to-back MVP awards and solidify his spot as a top-five quarterback of all-time.

In order to climb higher? Rodgers will need a Super Bowl title, something that’s eluded him for the better part of a decade.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (+425)

The Chiefs had some low lows this season, and there was a period in October when it felt they might even miss the playoffs.

But, they ripped off eight-straight wins from November through December to lock down their sixth-straight AFC West title.

Their defense — which caused them all sorts of strife early in the season — has looked much better, but is still their Achilles heel. It’s just the 24th-best unit in the NFL. If the Chiefs falter come January, it’ll be because of them.

Still, Kansas City is the second-best favorite to win the Super Bowl purely on account of Patrick Mahomes, who you can’t count out, especially against the shaky AFC.

This team is more than capable of ripping off three-straight wins to get to Inglewood. They won their first leg on Sunday against the Steelers, but will have to beat a streaking Bills team next week.

T-3. Buffalo Bills (+500)

This team might have some of the most confusing results of any squad in the NFL, with losses to the Jaguars and Steelers to go along with a 41-15 drubbing by the Colts.

They are talked about like one of the best teams in the NFL, but have they really looked like one this season?

The advanced statistics have an answer, and it’s a resounding yes.

DVOA says the Bills are the No. 2 team in the NFL. They’re the No. 4 team in total Expected Points Added. They have the No. 2 (DVOA) or No. 3 (EPA per play) defense in football.

And despite their minor foibles offensively, Buffalo is ranked No. 4 (EPA) or No. 8 (DVOA) on that side of the ball.

For reference, the best team in the NFL based on DVOA, the Dallas Cowboys, lost on Sunday. The Bills are the best team remaining.

And while Buffalo has some losses to bad teams, they dominate others, including the Patriots in a pivotal divisional game that allowed the Bills to host a contest during the Wild Card Round. They wrecked that game, of course.

Dominating teams — not winning close games — is the best metric in deciding which teams are Super Bowl contenders and not Super Bowl pretenders.

Each of the Bills’ wins have been by double figures or more. And in each of those wins, the Bills had complete or near-complete control of the game by the time the fourth quarter rolled around.

I’m personally picking the Bills to come out of the AFC — with road wins against the Chiefs and Titans.

T-3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+500)

The Bucs are doing what Super Bowl favorites and defending champions often do — drop games you think they shouldn’t, but take care of business before it becomes too serious of a problem.

While the defending champions have looked shaky in recent weeks — namely in a 9-0 shutout against the Saints, a close win versus the Panthers in Week 18 and a close victory over the Jets in which the NFL’s worst defense contained Brady for three-and-a-half quarters — Tampa still boasts the most efficient offense in the NFL and a top 10 defense by EPA.

Still, there are some serious personnel issues, especially at the wide receiver position. Their No. 1 receiver the last several weeks, Antonio Brown, has been booted from the team. Mike Evans is heavily hampered by a lingering hamstring problem. Chris Godwin is out for the year with an ACL tear.

And despite their No. 2 seed, they’ve been trending downward for weeks. The Bucs were the second-best favorites to win it all just two weeks ago. That’s dropped to sixth on account of bad performances against the Jets and Panthers.

While this team looked good in a win against the Eagles, they haven’t proved it against top-notch competition.\

T-4. Los Angeles Rams (+800)

There are few teams in the NFL with more upside, so the Rams are priced accordingly. This team is all-in, with stars at half their positions, and the lack of draft capital to show for it.

But they have some problems, especially offensively. Matt Stafford has had a good year, sure, but he leads the league in interceptions and pick-sixes and always seems to put this team in precarious positions.

Can the Rams rip off three straight wins to get the Super Bowl? Absolutely. But football is a game of variance, and it’s up to you to depend on Stafford for three-straight high pressure games. His track record this season and historically doesn’t allow for much confidence.

T-5. San Francisco 49ers (+3500)

The 49ers have vaulted themselves into the top-five in Super Bowl contenders in the market based on their advanced analytics and general performance throughout the home stretch of this season.

DVOA regarded this team as the sixth-best team overall before they took down the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round. The Cowboys were the No. 1 best team according to that same metric.

This 9ers team is good. Whether Jimmy Garoppolo’s thumb injury comes back to rear its ugly finger remains to be seen, but San Francisco will undoubtedly pose a tall task for a Green Bay team that hasn’t quite faced a test like the 9ers for a long time.

T-5. Tennessee Titans (+800)

The Titans remain a Super Bowl contender without Derrick Henry because of their soft division. Though Henry might come back at below 100%, the Titans are a cut below the rest of the Super Bowl contenders despite having the best record in the AFC.

Still, because they looked down the No. 1 seed, their odds to win it all skyrocketed to fifth. They had been toiling in the teens throughout the regular season.

They’re the worst No. 1 seed in the history of DVOA. The worst. That’s dating back to 1985. They’re ranked 20th in the NFL, behind a ridiculous eight non-playoff teams.

At this +800 price, this line provides unbelievably negative value. If the market continues to regard the Titans in this light, I can’t wait on fading them in the Divisional Round.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (+1100)

In Joe Burrow’s first full season as an NFL starter, he has looked exactly like the talent prognosticators had predicted he would be when he was the No. 1 overall pick out of LSU in 2020.

Burrow and former college teammate Ja’Marr Chase have put together one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL just two years after the Bengals finished 2-14.

And that proved explosive during a Wild Card Round victory over the Raiders.

This team hasn’t been the most consistent — losses to the Bears and Jets have indicated as much — but they’ve peaked at the right time with four straight wins, capped off by a dominant Burrow display in a win over the Chiefs.

(We’re not counting a loss to the Browns in Week 18 where the Bengals rested most of their starters.)

8. Los Angeles Rams (+1200)

There are few teams in the NFL with more upside, so the Rams are priced accordingly. In fact, there might be value with this team at the second-worst price. This team is all-in, with stars at half their positions, and the lack of draft capital to show for it.

But they have some problems, especially offensively. Matt Stafford has had a good year, sure, but he leads the league in interceptions and pick-sixes and always seems to put this team in precarious positions.

Can the Rams rip off three straight wins to get the Super Bowl? Absolutely. But football is a game of variance, and it’s up to you to depend on Stafford for three-straight high pressure games. His track record this season and historically doesn’t allow for much confidence.

9. Arizona Cardinals (+1800)

The Cardinals have regressed mightily after starting the season 8-1, but the market still seems to think this team can get hot and rip off four straight wins.

The last five weeks have looked grim. The Cardinals have lost four of five, and Kyler Murray has looked hapless in losses to the Rams, Lions, Colts and Seahawks — three of which are non-playoff teams.

To add insult to injury, All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins will miss time until at least the NFC Championship.

Arizona are still regarded as the No. 10 team in the NFL, but that’s after having been in the top-five for weeks.

The defense still looks strong, that’s for sure. But if Murray plays like he has over the last few weeks, expect this team to get bounced soon. The Cardinals have a divisional date with the Rams on Monday.

Super Bowl Betting FAQ

Where Can I Bet on the Super Bowl Winner?

Super Bowl futures betting is available at every American sportsbook. See where legal sports betting stands in your state.

When Is the 2022 Super Bowl?

The Super Bowl is a week later than normal this year because of the extended regular season. It will take place on Sunday, Feb. 13.

What Were the Bucs’ Odds to Win Super Bowl LV?

The Bucs entered Super Bowl LV as a 3.5-point favorite to beat the Chiefs. They were 60-1 before signing Tom Brady, and entered the season at around 10-1 to win it all.

Past Super Bowl Winners

Date Winner
2021 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 Kansas City Chiefs
2019 New England Patriots
2018 Philadelphia Eagles
2017 New England Patriots
2016 Denver Broncos
2015 New England Patriots
2014 Seattle Seahawks
2013 Baltimore Ravens
2012 New York Giants
2011 Green Bay Packers
2010 New Orleans Saints
2009 Pittsburgh Steelers
2008 New York Giants
2007 Indianapolis Colts
2006 Pittsburgh Steelers
2005 New England Patriots
2004 New England Patriots
2003 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2002 New England Patriots
2001 Baltimore Ravens
2000 St. Louis Rams
1999 Denver Broncos
1998 Denver Broncos
1997 Green Bay Packers
1996 Dallas Cowboys
1995 San Francisco 49ers
1994 Dallas Cowboys
1993 Dallas Cowboys
1992 Washington Redskins
1991 New York Giants
1990 San Francisco 49ers
1989 San Francisco 49ers
1988 Washington Redskins
1987 New York Giants
1986 Chicago Bears
1985 San Francisco 49ers
1984 Los Angeles Raiders
1983 Washington Redskins
1982 San Francisco 49ers
1981 Oakland Raiders
1980 Pittsburgh Steelers
1979 Pittsburgh Steelers
1978 Dallas Cowboys
1977 Oakland Raiders
1976 Pittsburgh Steelers
1975 Pittsburgh Steelers
1974 Miami Dolphins
1973 Miami Dolphins
1972 Dallas Cowboys
1971 Baltimore Colts
1970 Kansas City Chiefs
1969 New York Jets
1968 Green Bay Packers
1967 Green Bay Packers

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