Super Bowl Props: 33 of our Experts’ Top Super Bowl Prop Bets So Far
Pictured: Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, Haason Reddick — all of whom feature in our experts’ 33 top Super Bowl prop bets so far.
With Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles just days away, our experts have been hard at work picking out their top Super Bowl props across the board.
Below, you’ll find a breakdown of a whole host of Super Bowl props, including 33 of our experts’ top Super Bowl prop bets so far.
And if you already listened to this week’s episodes of “The Action Network Podcast” or “The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast” featuring Super Bowl Prop-A-Paloozas from Chris Raybon, Sean Koerner, and Simon Hunter, congratulations. You should have already locked in some of their favorite Super Bowl prop bets before lines started to move or, in some instances, came off the board completely.
Yes, books will sometimes completely take down lines they’ve posted once our experts weigh in with their bets. So make sure you’re following them in the Action Network app and listening to the podcasts as soon as they go live.
Super Bowl Props: 33 of our Experts’ Top Super Bowl Prop Bets So Far
We’ve tried to identify spots where the line has moved significantly or even come off the board on each of these prop bets, and most of these bets are still available at advantageous lines.
With that being said, let’s dive into 33 of our experts’ top Super Bowl prop bets for Sunday’s game between the Chiefs and Eagles.
Super Bowl Passing Props
Jalen Hurts Over 5.5 Consecutive Completions (-125) — Koerner
Jalen Hurts completed six or more passes consecutively in nine of 17 regular season games. Koerner’s model simulated this 10,000 times, as opposed to 17 games, and found a 65% chance of Hurts cashing this bet.
Against the Titans in Week 12, Hurts had three separate streaks of seven consecutive completions. If those three happened in separate games, the distribution would have lined up perfectly with Koerner’s model. Hurts only clearing 5.5 consecutive completions in 52% of regular season games reflects a small sample size.
Koerner would bet this up to -140.
Over 2.5 Players to Have a Pass Attempt (+154) — Hunter
Both Jalen Hurts (shoulder) and Patrick Mahomes (ankle) are nursing injuries entering this game. The Eagles have the best defensive line in the NFL, while the Chiefs defensive line is represented by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. It is quite feasible either quarterback will leave the game for a number of snaps due to one of the two QBs suffering, or re-aggravating, an injury.
In that scenario, we have already seen both Andy Reid and Nick Sirianni trust their backup quarterbacks, Chad Henne and Gardner Minshew, to throw the football.
If neither quarterback ultimately leaves the game, both head coaches are known for their aggressive tactics. Reid and Sirianni have trick plays they have been waiting to put on tape in the biggest game of the season.
A Philly Special 2.0 is in play.
Pick: Over 2.5 Players to Have a Pass Attempt
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Super Bowl Rushing Props
Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush Under 10.5 yards (-125) — Raybon
*Note this line has moved from 11.5 yards when Raybon recommended this pick on the podcast.
Patrick Mahomes’ longest rush prop has gone under in 12 of 19 games this season. Mahomes was mostly healthy throughout the season, but on Super Bowl Sunday, he may still be hobbling from his ankle injury.
The Eagles, defensively, run a lot of zone packages instead of man-to-man. In a man-to-man defense, defenders will turn their backs to the quarterback allowing them to rush for more yards.
Raybon stated on the podcast he felt the number should be closer to 9.5. The line has gone a point against bettors since Raybon suggested the pick, but it still offers value.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush Under 10.5 yards
Eagles Total Rushing Yards Under 149.5 (-144) — Raybon
The Eagles have yet to clear this number in the playoffs despite positive game scripts for the team’s rushing attack in two blowout victories over the Giants and 49ers. The Super Bowl should be a far worse game script for the Eagles rushing attack.
The Eagles have gone under 149.5 rushing yards in 12 of 19 games this season. This line should be closer to 142.5, per Raybon.
Pick: Eagles Total Rushing Yards Under 149.5 (-144)
Jalen Hurts Under 4.5 Rushing Yards on First Attempt (-112) — Koerner
*Note this line has moved from +110 when Koerner recommended this pick on the podcast.
Koerner examined all of Hurts’ first-quarter rushes, as they will not include kneel downs, and found Hurts’ average rush in the first quarter is 6.5 yards, whereas his median rush is 3.5 yards. The mean is skewed due to the number of times Hurts rushed for 20+ yards on a given first-quarter scramble. Only 16 of Hurts’ 36 first-quarter rushing attempts went for five or more yards.
The best case scenario here is Hurts’ first rush occurring on a QB sneak on third and one, a play the Eagles run more than any other team in the NFL.
This line, however, has moved in the opposite direction since Koerner placed it at +110.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 4.5 Rushing Yards on First Attempt (-112) — Koerner
Jerick McKinnon Longest Rush Under 8.5 yards (-114) — Raybon
*Note this line has moved from 9.5 rushing yards when Raybon recommended this pick on the podcast.
Raybon bet this at 9.5 but believes value remains at 8.5 and even at 7.5. McKinnon’s longest rush has gone seven or fewer yards in 74% of games this season; only 10% of his carries have gone for at least eight yards, and only 8% of his rushes have gone for at least nine yards.
Since McKinnon’s walk-off touchdown against the Houston Texans, he has averaged 1.8 yards per carry on 24 rushes. Among those 24 carries, his longest rush was seven yards. Additionally, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should play in the Super Bowl, which will hurt McKinnon.
Pick: Jerick McKinnon Longest Rush Under 8.5 yards (-114)
Isiah Pacheco to Finish with 12 Rush Attempts (+900) — Koerner
Koerner is projecting Isiah Pacheco to have 11.7 rushing attempts. When looking at Pacheco’s distribution, there is a 53% chance he finishes between nine and 13 carries with 11 and 12 carries being the most likely outcomes. The fair line value here should be +770. This bet is worth sprinkling.
Super Bowl Receiving Props
Isiah Pacheco vs Miles Sanders First Reception: Pacheco -225 — Koerner
*Note this line has moved from -130 when Koerner recommended the pick on the podcast.
Against the Bengals in the AFC Championship, Isiah Pacheco delivered the best receiving performance of his career with five receptions for 59 yards. He also ran a season-high 52% routes on all passing plays.
With Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney both set to be out, there will be plenty of opportunities for Pacheco to build off of last week’s receiving effort. Koerner believes this line should have been closer to -200 and would play Pacheco to secure a reception before Sanders up to -170. Unfortunately, this one isn’t worth the squeeze anymore.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco vs Miles Sanders First Reception: Pacheco -225
Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Over 19.5 yards (-122) — Koerner
*Note this line has moved from 18.5 yards (-105) when Koerner recommended this pick on the podcast.
Koerner simulation indicates a 61% chance of Dallas Goedert’s longest reception traveling farther than 18 yards. Goedert has cleared this number in 57% of games this season. Again, the Eagles game script should be more pass-heavy than previous games.
But, this line, like many others in the article, has shifted a point in the opposite direction since Koerner recommended the pick.
Pick: Dallas Goedert Longest Reception Over 19.5 yards (-122)
First Touchdown of the Super Bowl Props
Jalen Hurts +800 First TD — Raybon
Jalen Hurts scored the first touchdown for the Eagles in six of the team’s 17 regular season games. If you slice that number in half to represent the Chiefs players as well, there is an 18% chance Hurts scores the first touchdown. At +800, the books imply only an 11% chance that Hurts scores first.
Pick: Jalen Hurts +800 First TD
Travis Kelce +650 First TD — Raybon
Travis Kelce has scored the Chiefs’ first touchdown in eight of the team’s 19 games this season, a 42% clip. If you slice that in half, Kelce’s implied odds of scoring the first touchdown are 21%. At +650, oddsmakers imply just a 13% chance for Kelce to score first. Just like for Hurts, there is surplus value on Kelce.
Pick: Travis Kelce +650 First TD
Jody Fortson +6000 First TD — Koerner
Koerner’s model reflects this number being closer to +5000. But he believes Fortson’s true odds are even greater since his touchdown would likely be scripted. There is a wide variety of trick plays that Andy Reid has at his disposal, while the Eagles will likely focus on Travis Kelce in the red zone. The Chiefs have been running a lot of two or three tight end sets lately, to boot.
Pick: Jody Fortson +6000 First TD
Super Bowl Anytime Touchdown Props
Travis Kelce -120 Anytime TD — Raybon
This number may appear to overvalue Travis Kelce, but he is incredible in the playoffs. He has scored in five straight postseason games. He has also scored in 11 of his last 14 postseason games. A ratio of 11/14, or 78.5%, has implied odds of -373. Now facing his brother in the Super Bowl, there is a clear edge for Kelce to continue his trend of scoring in the postseason.
Pick: Travis Kelce -120 Anytime TD
Jody Fortson +1200 Anytime TD — Raybon
29% of Jody Fortson’s career receptions have gone for touchdowns, and 38% of his targets this year have come in the red zone. Fortson is also averaging eight routes a game, a solid number for a third-string tight end. At +1200, there is value on Fortson to score a touchdown.
Pick: Jody Fortson +1200 Anytime TD
Zach Pascal +1500 Anytime TD — Raybon
Zach Pascal has seen his role grow significantly over the past few weeks, dating back to the regular season. Pascal is averaging 10 routes per game in the postseason and secures one catch per every 10 routes.
In his career, Pascal scores about 10% of the time per a reception, implying true odds of +1000 for him to score a touchdown on Sunday. It is possible that Pascal sees a carry in the red zone as well; he has been on the field in the red zone a lot recently.
The Chiefs will pay minimal attention to Pascal in the red zone given the Eagles other offensive weapons. There is surplus value on Pascal to score a touchdwon.
Pick: Zach Pascal +1500 Anytime TD
Quez Watkins +750 Anytime TD — Koerner
Koerner’s model indicates there is a 25% chance that Quez Watkins does not record a reception in the Super Bowl. He has a low floor. On the contrary, Watkins has scored three touchdowns this season, all 20 yards or longer. He is a threat for a long touchdown, and the game script will favor an aggressive Eagles passing attack if Philly is trailing.
The fair price, based on Watkins scoring three touchdowns in 16 games, is closer to +430. Koerner is not touching any other Watkins props, but will invest in his ceiling with this bet.
Pick: Quez Watkins +750 Anytime TD
Patrick Mahomes +490 Anytime TD — Koerner
Patrick Mahomes scored a touchdown four times in 17 games this year, implying a price of +325. Yes, Mahomes may be limited rushing the football due to his ankle injury. As we saw, though, at the end of regulation in the AFC Championship, Mahomes is capable of scrambling when he must. Mahomes’ ankle should be healthier than it was against Cincinnati thanks to two weeks of added rest, as well.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes +490 Anytime TD
Super Bowl Defensive Props
Eagles Over 2.5 Sacks (-150) — Hunter
The Eagles have three or more sacks in 14 of 19 games this season, a 73.6% conversion rate. This number translates to odds of -279, a far cry from the -150 being offered by the market.
Pick: Eagles over 2.5 Sacks (-150)
Over 1.5 Interceptions in the Game (+138) — Hunter
*Note this line has moved from +150 when Hunter recommended the pick on the podcast.
Hunter predicts this to be a high-scoring matchup with a subsequent heavy passing approach from both sides. As such, he anticipates both players making riskier throws into coverage and increasing the number of opportunities for the defense to intercept passes.
For Jalen Hurts specifically, he has not had to win the game by aggressively making plays with his arm in many contests this year, largely due to being ahead in most. This trend will likely change on Sunday.
Pick: Eagles over 1.5 interceptions (+138)
Super Bowl Kicking/Punting Props
Chiefs Longest Gross Punt (-155) — Koerner
Tommy Townsend has been incredible this season. He averages 50.4 yards per punt on the season, second among all punters. Koerner already took Townsend’s first punt to travel over 46.5 yards, and he will be on this bet as well.
The Eagles are unsure who will be punting; Arryn Siposs appears ready to be activated from injured reserves, but the Eagles also recently signed former Titans punter Brett Kern. The two averaged 45.6 yards per punt and 40.8 yards per punt this season respectively.
Koerner’s simulations give the Chiefs a 70% chance of having the longest punt in this game which would equate to -235 in odds. If Kern punts, this number is closer to -250 or even -300.
Koerner will take this bet up to -200.
Both Teams to Convert a 33-Yard or Longer Field Goal: NO (-124) — Koerner
Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has successfully converted a 33-yard field goal in eight of 15 games this season, a 53% conversion rate. Jake Elliott, the Eagles kicker, has successfully kicked a 33+ yard field goal in seven of 18 games this season, a 39% conversion rate. Parlaying the two kickers’ odds together (.53 * .39), one can see the true odds of this bet hitting are 21%.
This bet offers an enormous surplus of value given a bet with a 21% chance of hitting would be valued at +376.
Pick: Both teams to convert a 33-yard or longer field goal, NO (-124)
Super Bowl MVP Props
Miles Sanders to Win Super Bowl MVP (+2500) — Koerner
30% of Super Bowl MVPs over the last decade-and-a-half are non-quarterbacks. The Eagles are a run-heavy team. Koerner has already placed a bet on Miles Sanders +175 to have the most rushing yards. He loves Sanders’ props because his usage has been limited this season since the Eagles have won so many blowout contests.
Sanders’ rush share among Eagles running backs is 79% when the Eagles are trailing or winning by fewer than seven points; this number drops to 61% when the Eagles lead by 7+. As such, Koerner thinks there is decent value on Sanders at 25-1 to win Super Bowl MVP; if he can rush for over 100 yards and score a few touchdowns without Hurts having an all-time game, Sanders has a good chance to win the award.
Pick: Miles Sanders to Win Super Bowl MVP (+2500)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling to Win Super Bowl MVP (+6000) — Koerner
Mecole Hardman is slated to sit out of the Super Bowl. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney appear to be less than 100%. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a massive ceiling; he had been unimpressive in the regular season season before catching six passes for 160 yards and a touchdown in the AFC Championship.
Maybe Marquez Valdes-Scantling catches lightning in a bottle and cashes Super Bowl MVP at +6000.
Pick: Marquez Valdes-Scantling to Win Super Bowl MVP (+6000)
Travis Kelce to Win Super Bowl MVP (+1600) — Raybon
While Koerner likes Valdes-Scantling as a lottery ticket, I think Travis Kelce, who has scored 12 touchdowns in his 15 career postseason games, including a touchdown in his last five playoff games, is a better use of a dart at +1600 to win Super Bowl MVP.
Two of the last four Super Bowl MVPs have been wide receivers. Last year, Cooper Kupp won the Super Bowl MVP at +600; Kelce is most similar to Kupp in terms of being the Chiefs’ clear-cut, number one receiving option.
Pick: Travis Kelce to Win Super Bowl MVP (+1600) — Raybon
Kenneth Gainwell to Win Super Bowl MVP (+13000) — Raybon
There are two game scripts where Gainwell could go off: If the Eagles go up big early, Gainwell has a chance to mix in and score multiple touchdowns. Alternatively, Gainwell is the best receiving option at running back for the Eagles. If the Eagles need to comeback, Gainwell could receive a lot of targets, akin to the 28-3 Patriots–Falcons Super Bowl where James White hauled in 14 receptions for 110 yards and three touchdowns. White did not win the Super Bowl MVP that year, but Hurts does not have the same brand recognition as Tom Brady.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell to Win Super Bowl MVP (+13000)
Haason Reddick to Win Super Bowl MVP (+3000) — Hunter
Jalen Hurts has been incredible this season. But he is not Patrick Mahomes. Hunter believes that if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl, it will be because of Mahomes, thus he will win Super Bowl MVP.
With Jalen Hurts, however, who is not on the level of a Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady, there is a greater chance of someone beside him winning Super Bowl MVP if the Eagles win.
Haason Reddick is a game-wrecker and the Eagles’ best pass-rusher. He is capable of stealing the award with a dominant performance.
Pick: Haason Reddick to Win Super Bowl (+3000)
Other Super Bowl Props
Most Playoff Rushing Yards 2022-23 Season, Miles Sanders (+600) — Hunter
On DraftKings, one can bet Miles Sanders to rush for 100+ yards in the Super Bowl at +425. Why bet that, though, when you can take him to lead the NFL in playoff rushing yards at +600 on FanDuel below?
Miles Sanders has 132 rushing yards in the playoffs, while Christian McCaffrey accumulated 238 rushing yards. One is essentially getting a surplus +175 if Sanders can simply rush for 107 yards, rather than 100 yards.
Pick: Most Playoff Rushing Yards 2022 – 23 Season, Miles Sanders (+600) — Hunter
Over 10.5 Accepted Penalties (-110) — Raybon
Official Carl Cheffers has called 11 or more penalties in 78% of games he has officiated; he has called just nine or fewer penalties in 15% of the games he has officiated. He has called a penalty 10 times in just 7% of the games he has officiated.
Raybon believes the books are pricing this line in relation to the average number of penalties called as opposed to Cheffers’ tendency to call a lot of penalties.
Chiefs to Call First Timeout (-115) — Koerner
The Chiefs have called the first timeout in 15 of 19 games this year. On the other side, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni is very conservative with his timeouts. He has only called a timeout first in seven of 19 games this season. Koerner will take this bet up to -140.
National Anthem Under 2:02 (-110) — Raybon
*Note this line has moved from 2:05 when Raybon recommended the pick on the podcast.
In the last 16 years, only four National Anthems have gone over 2:05 while the other 12 National Anthems have gone under. The average line is typically 1:59, while the median is 1:56.
If Chris Stapleton plays the guitar during the National Anthem and his practice run time is leaked, as it has been in past years, more merit can be placed into the practice time number as he is less likely to speed up or slow down in order to stay consistent with his guitar.
Luke Bryan is the only singer to play the National Anthem with a guitar and he sang for 2:04.
Unfortunately, Raybon recommended the pick at 2:05 so the pick has lost most of its value by now.
Safety in the Super Bowl, Yes (+1040) — Hunter
Hunter believes this number should be closer to +800 than +1040. We saw this bet cash most recently on the first play of Super Bowl 47, which featured the Broncos and Seahawks. To date, there has been a safety in 16% of all Super Bowls.
Hunter also thinks there is added value on this weekend’s Super Bowl since both coaches are ultra-aggressive and could feasibly go for it — rather than kick a field goal — on a fourth and goal scenario.
Pick: Safety in the Super Bowl, Yes (+1040)
Yellow/Green Gatorade Dump (+145) — Hunter
*Note this line has moved from +350 when Hunter recommended the pick on the podcast.
Hunter stated on the podcast that he had good intel on the color of the Gatorade colors within each team’s respective sideline. He believes the Eagles sidelines will have three Gatorade jugs with two of them being yellow/green. On the Chiefs sideline, there is always one yellow/green Gatorade. (It’s worth noting that we have written previously that the teams themselves don’t make the decision on the color of Gatorade — Gatorade does.)
When recommending the pick on “The Favorites,” he indicated he placed a bet on green/yellow at +350 and felt it could get as low as +250. Obviously, the line has changed far more than even Hunter envisioned.
If there are truly three out of six Gatorade jugs that are green or yellow, this line still at +145 offers surplus value to the +100 one traditionally receives before the added juice of an oddsmaker kicks the line slightly higher. Cheers if you took the bet at +350 with Hunter earlier in the week.
Pick: Yellow/Green Gatorade Dump (+145)
No Gatorade Dump (+1100) — Raybon
A recent article in The Athletic states that the Gatorade color is usually randomized among three different colors, meaning the best bet is to take the color with the longest odds.
The longest odd bet here is No Gatorade Dump at +1100. In 2017, the Patriots did not dump Gatorade on Bill Belichick nor did the Ravens dump Gatorade on Jim Harbaugh in 2013. There is a precedent for no Gatorade dump happening previously.
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