10 Trends Point Toward Betting Game 2 Stanley Cup Total

10 Trends Point Toward Betting Game 2 Stanley Cup Total article feature image
Credit:

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Vegas Golden Knights

Do you like scoring? Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final featured 10 goals in a back-and-forth affair won by the Vegas Golden Knights, 6-4, over the Washington Capitals.

The total closed at 5.5, and over bettors didn’t have to wait long to cash their tickets as the teams combined for six goals in the first 30 minutes of action.

 

The total for Game 2 (Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET) opened at 5.5 as well. Oddsmakers did not adjust the line, but after the offensive outburst, more than 80% of tickets are on the over (see live updating odds here). The one-sided action isn’t surprising as the public loves cheering for points. Should bettors play the over after the strong offensive game?

A 10-goal performance from the Knights and Caps is hard to ignore, but here is one trend for every Game 1 goal that points to taking the under in Game 2:

1. Stanley Cup Under

Since 2006, the under in the Stanley Cup Final has gone 44-24-6 (65%). This is the most profitable round to bet the under in our database with a $100 bettor returning a profit of $1,077.

2. No Fluke

The under being a profitable bet in the Stanley Cup Final is no fluke. From 1996-2005, the under went 28-18-4 (61%) with Lord Stanley’s Cup on the line.

3. Unders After Overs

In the Stanley Cup Final since 2006, if the previous game went over, the under went 15-4-1 (79%) in the following game.

4. Lopsided Action

At the time of publication, more than 80% of tickets are on the over. Since 2006, when more than 70% of bets are on the over in a NHL playoff game with a total of 5.5 or greater, the under is 58-46-3 (56%).

5. Vegas Unders

The Golden Knights covered the Game 1 total by themselves, but the under was 8-5-2 in Vegas’ playoff games before Monday. The Knights allowed 2.74 goals per game in the regular season (eighth-best in the NHL) and have given up just 1.94 goals per game in the postseason.

6. Caps Too

Washington has scored 70 goals this postseason, 17 more than the next best team. Even with so much scoring, the under was 9-7-3 in the Caps’ previous games before the opener of the Stanley Cup Final.

7. Unders After Offensive Explosion

Since 2006, if the home team scored six or more goals the previous playoff game, the under has gone 37-23-7 (62%) in its next game.

8. Holtby Is Money

Things didn’t go Braden Holtby’s way in Game 1, but when he is in the net, it has been profitable to bet the under: 42-22-11 in playoff games. He is the most profitable postseason goalie for under bettors in our database. One-hundred-dollar bettors would be up $1,510 betting the under when he starts.

9. Fleury is Fantastic

The own-goal aside, Marc-Andre Fleury has been the best goalie in the playoffs before the final started, and Holtby also had been impressive before Game 1.

10. High Total

Of the 1,114 playoff games in our database, only 440 (39.5%) have a total of 5.5 or greater. In these high-total games, it has been profitable to bet the under the deeper we get into the postseason.

The public is chasing the over after it easily covered in Game 1. Even though more than 80% of tickets are on the over in Game 2, 85% of the money is on the under — an indication that sharp players think fewer goals will be scored on Wednesday.