The Futures Value Play: Here Come the Pittsburgh Penguins

The NHL season passed through another checkpoint on Sunday night with the 63rd annual All-Star Game at Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay. To this point, it has been a good year to be Cinderella in the NHL. But I see a sleeping giant who looks about ready to wake up. Coming into the season, the Pittsburgh Penguins were the Stanley Cup favorites at +800. That came as no surprise, as the Pens have won the Stanley Cup two years on the bounce. And they still had Sidney Crosby. There really wasn't much change in Pittsburgh, save for Marc-Andre Fleury's departure to Vegas. As a result, it was fair to assume they could compete for a third consecutive Cup.

Things didn't unfold that way, however. The Penguins didn't find wins easy to come by through the first three months of the season, and their odds began to lengthen. At the all-star break, Pittsburgh is in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 57 points from 51 games (27-21-3). On the surface, Pittsburgh's record is nothing to get excited about. However, when you take a deeper look at the Penguins' path to this point, it's actually quite impressive.

In Net

A couple of issues plagued Pittsburgh early, but you have to start with their goaltending, which ranks dead last in 5-on-5 save percentage this season. After Matt Murray backstopped his team to a pair of titles in his first two seasons, the Penguins planned to hand him the keys. It was clear Fleury was on the way out, and Murray had been stellar in his young NHL career.

Oddly, the Penguins made a bad bet on Antti Niemi to serve as Murray's deputy to start the year. It wasn't weird that general manager Jim Rutherford signed a veteran to back up, which would give Tristan Jarry, another highly regarded young goalie, more regular playing time in the Minors. What was a bit off was that the Penguins, who rarely make the wrong choice when it comes to depth, chose a goalie who had some really down years in Dallas.

Niemi imploded for Pittsburgh, allowing 16 goals in three games. The Penguins quickly moved on from the veteran goaltender and called up Jarry to play second fiddle to Murray, who was struggling to find his game as well. Not only was Murray out of form, but he also landed on injured reserve at the end of November and missed a couple of weeks.

Since then, Murray has struggled to an .896 save percentage in nine games. This clearly isn't the Murray we all expected this season, and it's hard to imagine that he won't correct his game as we head towards the Spring. But even if his struggles continue, Jarry has looked capable of steadying the ship for Pittsburgh.

On Offense

Pittsburgh's goaltending isn't the only part of their game that should benefit from positive regression. Their offense should as well. The Penguins are a gifted offensive team with some of the league's best goal scorers. Yet, they've struggled scoring goals at even strength all year. Coming out of the break, Pittsburgh ranks last in the league with a 5.9 shooting percentage at 5-on-5. NHL teams score on about 9.1% of their shots in all situations, so it is fair to say that Pittsburgh is due for some good bounces.

In terms of PDO (shooting percentage + save percentage), no team has been unluckier than Pittsburgh so far — and that includes an uptick over the past few weeks.

There are plenty of great offensive players on the Penguins: Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel, Kris Letang and it goes on. The point is, this team is built to score goals, but they haven't yet. That's because outside of Kessel, each of those players has struggled to connect on shooting opportunities.

Crosby, a career 12.2% shooter at 5-on-5, has converted only 5.6% of his even strength shots this season. Malkin, an even better shooter than Crosby at 15.3% for his career, has converted 11%. And then there's Letang, whose 5-on-5 shooting percentage sits at a minuscule 0.94%. There are more cases like this throughout the Penguins' roster, but you get the point.

Beyond their PDO, Pittsburgh has looked good all year. They have controlled the shot attempts for the most part, and created 6.21 more expected goals than allowed at 5-on-5 this season. All looks good under the hood.

This is a good team that has been dealt poor hand after poor hand. Yet, the are still sitting at the table with a growing chip stack. If the Penguins played at a 92-point pace with horrible luck, imagine what they will do when things start to correct. Right now, you can bet Pittsburgh +1400 (6.67% implied probability) to pull off a three-peat. That is priced fairly to me.

Futures Value

However, I identified another wager that provides much more value. Pittsburgh currently trails Washington by six points — with two more games played — for first in the Metro Division. With over 30 games left, that is nowhere close to insurmountable. You can find good value on Pitt to win the division around the market.

Even though other teams are in the mix for the division crown, it feels like a two-horse race between Washington (-125) and Pittsburgh. The Blue Jackets (+600) also have 57 points, but through 49 games played. They are also missing key players and have not been in great form lately. I frankly find it insane that the Flyers (+600) are a shorter price than Pittsburgh. Philly has turned their season around and should make the playoffs, but their lack of depth and poor coaching should prevent them for making a chase in the division. The Devils (+800) have been a great story, but their run of good fortune will not continue much longer. I expect New Jersey will come back down to earth in the not so distant future.

Washington has the talent to outperform their PDO, but that doesn't mean they won't regress over the next couple of months. Through 49 games, the Capitals have the second-highest PDO in the NHL at 101.87. I can see Washington, which is 19-7-4 over their last 30 games, hitting an extended cold patch in the second half. If the Pens finally start getting the bounces in their final 31 games, they will make a strong run at the division.

Editor's Note: Following the publication of this story, Pittsburgh beat San Jose 5-2 in their first game out of the NHL All-Star break, on Tuesday night. Now healthy, goaltender Matt Murray was spectacular in 40-save performance, while the Penguins' offense was fueled by an Evgeni Malkin hat trick.

Pittsburgh improved its record to 28-21-3 (59 points) with the victory. They are now in second place in the Metro Division. 

Special thanks to Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) for the charts used in this article. All stats from Corsica.Hockey

Photo: Don Wright, USA Today Sports

Odds current as of 10 pm ET on Jan. 28.