The Edmonton Oilers (15-12-6) and Pittsburgh Penguins (14-8-9) meet in an NHL duel tonight. Puck drop is set for 7:30 p.m. EST at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pa. The game will be broadcast live on TNT.
The Oilers are favored by -1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 6.5 (-105o / -115u). The Oilers are a -140 favorite to win outright, while the Penguins are +120 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Oilers vs. Penguins predictions and NHL picks.
Oilers vs. Penguins Odds, Pick
| Oilers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | -140 |
| Penguins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 6.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
- Oilers vs. Penguins Spread: Oilers -1.5 (+165), Penguins +1.5 (-200)
- Oilers vs. Penguins Over/Under: 6.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Oilers vs. Penguins Moneyline: Oilers -140, Penguins +120
Oilers vs. Penguins Preview
Edmonton Oilers
The Edmonton Oilers still have not found the dominant form that led them to finish runner-up in last year's Stanley Cup Final. A big part of this disappointment has been the team's inability to generate high-danger scoring chances at even strength.
This season, Edmonton hovers around the league average in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, the Oilers once again struggle defensively, which has always been this team’s biggest flaw outside of goaltending.
Entering this matchup, the Oilers rank 21st in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Speaking of that aforementioned goaltending, Edmonton attempted to shake things up this year with the acquisition of Tristan Jarry.
Jarry is undoubtedly an upgrade over former netminder Stuart Skinner, but it remains to be seen whether he will make much of an overall difference playing behind a blue line that bleeds high-danger scoring chances.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Jarry will be tasked with going against his former team, the Pittsburgh Penguins. There is a lot of value on Pittsburgh in this spot, considering the Penguins have been a more efficient team than the Oilers this season.
Playing strong two-way hockey, Pittsburgh ranks in the top 10 in both xGF/60 and xGA/60. The Penguins outrank the Oilers in each of those two key categories and, subsequently, in expected goal share.
This betting line comes down to goaltending, as Skinner will also face his former team and is projected to draw the start for Pittsburgh. In a vacuum, Jarry has an edge over Skinner.
That said, Skinner will play behind a much stingier defense in this matchup.
Oilers vs. Penguins Prediction
Given that the goaltending gap may be narrowed by the fact that Skinner will likely face lower-percentage shots, there is no reason not to like the Penguins at +120 in this matchup. Not only is Pittsburgh more efficient both offensively and defensively, but it also boasts home-ice advantage.
This season, the Oilers are a mere 7-9-3 on the road.
Pick: Penguins ML (+120 | Play to +115)
