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Locky’s First Period NHL Model 2/17: Learning From Volatility

Feb 17, 2019 11:10 AM EST
Credit:

Timothy Ludwig, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kyle Okposo

Good morning!

The larger edges last night did not do well, going 1-3 (smaller edges actually won overall, but that’s not even close to the point).

As we’ve discussed endlessly, this may be bumpy, and we don’t even know if the destination is going to be something anyone likes.

Here’s another way to look at it, though. The most common “final” scores in first periods in terms of combined goals are 1 and 2.

Last night, in the first four games of the late-slate (when we were sweating the Islanders and Lightning): 0, 0, 0, 3. Later in the evening, a 0 and a 4. So yeah, things aren’t going to always look like the projections, or like ANY projections.

When betting derivatives in shorter amounts of time, key plays (puck hitting the post, penalty) are magnified to a crazy high degree because there isn’t enough time in all likelihood for the other team to overcome that obstacle.

But again, I’m seeing this through to the end, because I think the projections are valuable. And if the projections are good, hopefully you can find a way to gain value from them in some capacity.

That wasn’t a pep talk to get you to keep betting. In fact, if this isn’t fun for you, you should absolutely NOT keep betting.

Follow along and see how we do here. You know where to find me.

A Reminder

If you’re new here, I build a model to handicap first-period over/unders in the NHL.

To provide the greatest value to you the bettor, each of these articles will include a downloadable Excel file at the bottom. In it, you can insert the line at your sportsbook of choice and see the bets that are — and aren’t — offering value, according to my model.

For more info on my model, check out the story below.

Locky’s First-Period NHL Over/Unders: Full Slate Breakdown

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