Stars vs Oilers Odds, Preview: Game 3 Prediction
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Stars vs. Oilers Odds, Preview
| Stars Odds | +110 |
| Oilers Odds | -130 |
| Over / Under | 5.5 -115 / -105 |
Here's everything you need to know about the Stars vs Oilers odds for Game 3 on Monday, May 27 – our expert NHL prediction and pick.
While the Stars likely aren't thrilled with their play in much of the opening two matchups, wasting home ice advantage likely doesn't scare them. Dallas is 5-1 on the road this postseason, which helps to illustrate the idea that home ice is overvalued in the NHL playoffs.
Road teams are now 41-32 this NHL postseason, with a +14.2% ROI per ActionNetwork's BetLabs.
Rogers Arena will feature an especially raucous atmosphere tonight though, and the Oilers have played well in the opening two games of the series. Still, are the Oilers worthy of a -130 price tag in Game 3 after being +115 underdogs in Game 2?
Relative to the rest of what has been a downright incredible postseason run, the Stars play has looked somewhat middling in the opening two games of the West Final.
The Oilers were the better team by a decent margin in Game 1, and the Stars were lucky to even knot it up on a fluky game tying goal. The Stars were heavily outplayed at the start of Game 2, but ultimately found their legs before finding a result based upon a convincing third period.
The way that those two games were contested at even strength came as a surprise considering the way the Stars played in the opening two rounds. The Stars owned a 44.7% expected goal share in five-on-five play, and the eye-test agrees with that number, as the Stars third period in Game 2 was their only truly convincing spell of even strength play.
The Stars have raised their level as each of the last two series have worn on though, which is certainly a positive note the team can point to, particularly after an excellent third period in Game 2.
There's been lots of talk about how the Stars depth advantage was overrated, particularly in the Alberta area where I reside. While it's true that the depth minutes have been closer to a wash than expected so far, two games doesn't prove the Oilers are the Stars' equal outside of the top-6 minutes either when a whole playoff's worth of results suggests they aren't.
Especially if the Stars do end up having top-line center Roope Hintz back for this matchup. The dominant two-way forward is considered a game time decision once again, but even if Hintz doesn't return at his top level, it will still allow Coach Pete DeBoer to slot his forwards more effectively into their traditional roles.
Jake Oettinger will start in goal for the Stars. He has played to a +8.2 GSA and .922 save percentage in 15 appearances this postseason.
While it's frustrating to consider because the series is tied, the Oilers will certainly be happy with the way the first two games were contested overall.
The common contention was that the Oilers would need downright incredible performances from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl to win this series, as they were expected to be crushed in the minutes when that duo and the top defense pairing of Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm weren't on the ice.
Their penalty kill has remained in incredible form, and currently sits at 92.7% this postseason after some critical kills in Games 1 and 2.
The Oilers vaunted top power play unit has had slightly over four minutes to work in the series, and is yet to record a goal. The limited amount of calls in Edmonton's favor has been a prominent storyline entering Game 3, and was commented on by Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch.
While you could argue all day about the reffing, as many fans love to do, from a numbers standpoint, it is unlikely the Stars will spend less time on the kill from now until Game 6, if we get there. And especially considering the Oilers have actually owned more of the overall play, as you are always drastically more likely to take penalties on the defensive side of the puck.
The Oilers' power play could certainly be an x-factor that helps them take this critical Game 3.
Adam Henrique is set to return to the lineup for the Oilers in this matchup, and will take the place of Ryan McLeod.
Stuart Skinner has now bounced back with four high quality starts in a row, and will get another chance to work Monday. He has played to a +0.4 GSAx and .890 save percentage this postseason.
Stars vs. Oilers
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Oilers have done a surprisingly good job at playing even in the depth minutes in Games 1 and 2. If that remains true they should have a good chance of taking this pivotal Game 3, particularly if they finally benefit from a power play marker.
It's fair to say the Oilers have earned a closer price given their play in the series, but it's still hard to say there is betting value on them when you consider how much this number has shifted.
One angle that I do see value in betting is targeting the Oilers man advantage to do some damage in this spot. The Stars penalty kill has been one of few weaknesses the team has displayed this postseason, as it has succeeded only 72.4% of the time.
Leon Draisaitl continues to score at a downright absurd pace, and much of his damage has come on the man advantage. He has put up a single power play point in nine of 13 games this postseason, for a total of 11 combined.
There is value backing Draisaitl to record a power play point at anything better than -105 in this market.
Pick: Leon Draisaitl Power Play Point (+100 | Play to -105)
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