Top NHL Prop Bets for Monday: Eric Staal Over/Under 2.5 Total Shots on Goal?
There are only four games on Monday, but we still have plenty of opportunities to look for exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool at Fantasy Labs, as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are two props I’m eyeing tonight, with the first puck drop at 7:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Canadiens LW Tomas Tatar
The pick: Over 2.5 shots on goal (+120)
Tatar is not normally known as a high-volume shooter, ranking in the 67th percentile over the past year with only 2.07 shots per game.
That said, his shots have recently spiked to 3.5 shots per game (95th percentile) over the past 15 days. We have to be careful not to overreact to small sample size, but Tatar was a player we discussed extensively on today’s edition of NHL Inside the Lab because his role has also seen a massive step forward this season with a new team.
His usage in the top-six and power play unit is what really matters, as he is clearly being featured, so opportunity should be there.
Wild C Eric Staal
The pick: Under 2.5 shots on goal (-170)
Staal has completely revitalized his career in Minnesota over the past two seasons, tallying 28 and 42 goals respectively after not reaching the 25-goal mark since 2009-10.
That said, the Wild have our lowest expected Corsi for on the entire slate, taking on a Nashville team that has allowed the eighth-fewest shots on goal this year.
As a team, Minnesota just hasn’t been shooting a ton, dead last on today’s slate in Corsi for over the past month. Even with the juice, being short on Staal and the Wild makes a ton of sense from a volume perspective.