Wild-Lightning Betting Preview: Minnesota’s Sturdy Defense Will Be Put to the Test

Wild-Lightning Betting Preview: Minnesota’s Sturdy Defense Will Be Put to the Test article feature image
Credit:

David Berding, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kevin Fiala

This is the point of the NHL season where things get even weirder than normal.

The regular season is just about 80% done and that means a couple of things.

First, it means that we have nearly an entire season's worth of data to work with, which means the market is going to be even more efficient than normal.

It also means we're through the trade deadline and that teams are either jockeying for the playoffs or they are playing spoiler/tanking. The fact that some teams are not incentivized to win adds another variable to a sport that is chock-full of 'em.

That is why, generally speaking, it has been a bad idea to bet on underdogs late in the NHL season.

Per Bet Labs, underdogs are 1667-2575 (39%) in game 60 or later in an NHL season. If you bet $100 on every dog we've tracked in this spot (2006-present) you'd be down a cool $20,395.

That doesn't mean you should avoid every underdog from now until the postseason, though.

Season record: 38-40, +12.62 units


>> All odds as of 11 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NHL odds and track your bets


Betting odds: Minnesota Wild at Tampa Bay Lightning

  • Wild moneyline: +205
  • Lightning moneyline: -230
  • Over/Under: 6
  • Rest notes: Wild 4-in-6
  • Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET

The Tampa Bay Lightning are on pace to set a bunch of records this season and are overwhelming favorites to win the Stanley Cup (+350).

But believe it or not, the Lightning have a worse expected goals differential than their opponents on Thursday night.



That's right, the Minnesota Wild boast an xGD/60 of +0.43 this season compared to Tampa's +0.32.

And even though these two rosters couldn't be more different in terms of skill — Tampa Bay is loaded with talent top-to-bottom while Minnesota is pretty ordinary — they both feature terrific defenses.

Even with their lack of skill, Minnesota has hung in the playoff race thanks to its terrific defense. The Wild lead the NHL in expected goals against and high-danger scoring chances against per 60 minutes.



After faltering after the All-Star Break, the Wild have picked things up over their last 10 games. Minnesota has outscored, out-chanced and out-shot their opponents at 5v5 over that span, putting them in a driver's seat for one of the last playoff berths in the Western Conference.

Tampa Bay should win this game more often than not and the Bolts are the far superior team, but that doesn't make this a bad bet. The Wild will need to turn this into a rock fight and hope they get decent goaltending, but backing the league's best defensive team at better than 2-1 isn't a bad idea.

These odds imply Tampa Bay has a 68% chance of winning (assuming no vig) and I think that flatters them too much. I'd play Minnesota down to +195.

The Bet: Minnesota Wild +205

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