The preseason is in the books and the 2025 NFL season is nearly here, so it's time to dig into those season-long awards.
I'm previewing all nine award markets over the next week, and you already know we'll return to these all season. We're starting with one of the more unique awards: NFL Comeback Player of the Year (CPOY).
Unlike other awards, Comeback Player of the Year is explicitly narrative driven — it's now officially an injury comeback award. In 2024, the Associated Press announced that the spirit of the award is "to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season."
You can thank Joe Flacco for that.
Flacco was one of my wildest awards hit ever, a 250-to-1 dart from downtown the year Flacco went couch-to-playoffs while Damar Hamlin shockingly fell short of the award.
Geno Smith won the award the year prior for his comeback from … sucking I guess? Joe Burrow won the year before and crushed our Dak Prescott bet, then became the first player ever to win CPOY a second time.
It's a weird award — you win some, you lose some.
So how in the world do we bet such a unique award — if we bet it at all? Let's dig into NFL Comeback Player of the Year.
NFL Comeback Player of the Year Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | The Non-Quarterbacks |
| 2 | Potential QB Winners |
| 3 | Keep an Eye on Unlisted Options |
| The Verdict |
Who Wins Comeback Player of the Year?
Let's find some patterns from our last 15 CPOY winners:
- 2024 QB Joe Burrow, Bengals
- 2023 QB Joe Flacco, Browns
- 2022 QB Geno Smith, Seahawks
- 2021 QB Joe Burrow, Bengals
- 2020 QB Alex Smith, Washington
- 2019 QB Ryan Tannehill, Titans
- 2018 QB Andrew Luck, Colts
- 2017 WR Keenan Allen, Chargers
- 2016 WR Jordy Nelson, Packers
- 2015 S Eric Berry, Chiefs
- 2014 TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
- 2013 QB Philip Rivers, Chargers
- 2012 QB Peyton Manning, Broncos
- 2011 QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
- 2010 QB Michael Vick, Eagles
1. We need an injury comeback.
Technically speaking, all players are eligible to win CPOY.
Makes sense if you think about it. All football players have injuries of varying levels, so it would be impossible to police.
Voters were instructed to treat injury return as the spirit of the award, but Sam Darnold still received seven of the 49 first-place votes last season despite that instruction, and despite not having a real injury he fought back from.
Only 10 of the 15 CPOYs above won the award as a return from injury or health condition, but we should assume that 67% leaps to 100% from here forward until proven otherwise.
2. Quarterbacks win CPOY.
That's the first thing that jumps out from the list above. The last seven CPOY winners were quarterbacks, along with 12 of the last 16 (75%).
We also have three pass catchers over the past decade. There's just one defender on the list, though three won it in the previous decade.
No running back has won CPOY since Garrison Hearst in 2001. In fact, he's the only RB to win it in the modern era.
3. CPOY winners almost always win a bunch of games and make the playoffs.
This probably doesn't come as a huge surprise, but it's important to note nonetheless. These guys are winners.
Thirteen of the 15 CPOY winners above made the playoffs, and 14 of the 15 were on teams that won at least nine games. That's a 93% hit rate — that says we need someone who at least goes 9-8 and likely makes the playoffs. Those players combined to win 64% of their games, a 10.9-win pace on a 17-game schedule.
It makes sense. It's a narrative award, and narrative rewards winners.
Comebacks are cool, but come back on a team that makes the playoffs — especially as the quarterback — and you really have our attention.
So what are we looking for in a Comeback Player of the Year?
We need a winning playoff player with a great narrative coming back from a major injury or health concern — most likely a quarterback.
Group 1 — The Non-Quarterbacks
RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers +400 (BetMGM)
RB Nick Chubb, Texans +2500 (FanDuel)
Remember, only one RB has won CPOY in the Super Bowl era (Garrison Hearst in 2001).
That's probably not meaningless. RBs have notoriously short, quick careers and peaks, and it often takes some time for them to return to top value after a major injury — if they ever do make it back to top form.
Nick Chubb's knee was shredded pretty badly. We all saw it happen. Chubb is one of the better pure runners we've seen in recent years, but that level of injury along with playing behind the league's worst offensive line should steer us away.
Christian McCaffrey is certainly more appealing. He's a first-round fantasy target again and looked good and healthy in training camp, and he's put up monster numbers pretty consistently when available. He's also not even 30 years old yet.
The 49ers are set up for a huge comeback season and McCaffrey winning this award could be a great way to recognize San Francisco for a great season.
McCaffrey makes a ton of sense — but history is too badly against him as a RB to merit a +400 bet. If he stays healthy and hits, we're just going to have to take the L on that one.
WR Stefon Diggs, Patriots +3000 (ESPN Bet)
WR Chris Godwin, Bucs +4000 (DraftKings)
WR Rashee Rice, Chiefs +6000 (FanDuel)
WR Chris Olave, Saints +6000 (Caesars)
WR Brandon Aiyuk, 49ers +7500 (ESPN Bet)
We have three wide receiver CPOY winners over the last decade — but I'm not sure any of these guys make much sense to join them.
Chris Godwin and Brandon Aiyuk are still actively trying to return from injury. It looks like both will miss at least September, maybe longer, and any return after that will likely require a slow ramp-up period.
That doesn't leave much time to put up impressive stats, and even if you want to bet them, the odds can only get longer later.
Rashee Rice has a somewhat similar problem — along with an even bigger, uhh, image problem along with a looming suspension that would surely have voters more than a little hesitant to back him.
The best WR bet of the group is likely Stefon Diggs, who is returning from a torn ACL and fully cleared for takeoff. He could be a clear WR1 on the Patriots with their lack of weapons, and Drake Maye could make him look good. That's playable but Diggs tore his ACL under a year ago and will turn 32 by season's end, so it's a big ask.
The other guy in this quartet that makes some sense is Chris Olave, who's been a brilliant producer when he can actually stay on the field. But Olave is one hit away from missing at least a month at all times with his concussion history, and a bet on him is also a bet on Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler, and on voters giving a rip about what the Saints do en route to 3-14.
DE Aidan Hutchinson, Lions +300 (Caesars)
DE Maxx Crosby, Raiders +3000 (ESPN Bet)
LB Dre Greenlaw, Broncos +15000 (DraftKings)
Aidan Hutchinson's odds are honestly ridiculous.
He's returning from a broken leg and looked awesome for a month last season but had incredible luck, facing a string of backup tackles along the way. If Hutchinson really is that good, he can just win Defensive Player of the Year. But with the other injuries on Detroit's defensive line, he's an easy no bet as the favorite when only one defender ever has won CPOY.
Do you even remember what injury Maxx Crosby is returning from? Me neither.
It's apparently an ankle sprain, which is code for "We shut him down late because we were tanking." Pass.
I will take a small nibble on Dre Greenlaw, though (+15000, DraftKings & ESPN Bet).
There's no real case historically if we're being honest, but the entire world saw Greenlaw tear his Achilles in the Super Bowl. He played just two games last year, but we already know Greenlaw can be about as good and impactful as any linebacker in football when healthy.
Now Greenlaw joins a Denver defense that already ranked among the league's finest last season. If the Broncos take another step and are a clear No. 1 unit with Greenlaw buzzing around the field at the heart of everything, he'll get a ton of media attention.
There aren't more than maybe 20 defenders who are in the national conversation. Greenlaw is one of them, and he's a great way to bet on the Broncos defense this season at a wild, long number.
Shall we get to the quarterbacks?
Group 2 — Potential QB Winners
Dak Prescott, Cowboys +325 (BetMGM)
Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars +550 (ESPN Bet)
J.J. McCarthy, Vikings +1000 (DraftKings)
Daniel Jones, Colts +2500 (FanDuel)
Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins +3500 (DraftKings)
Anthony Richardson, Colts +4000 (FanDuel)
Jimmy Garoppolo, Rams +10000 (FanDuel)
We already know quarterbacks are most likely to win, so it's worth considering our options deep down the list.
There are two Colts quarterbacks on the list.
Daniel Jones isn't really coming back from a major injury, so he's more of a Sam Darnold candidate and not worth backing. Anthony Richardson is seemingly always coming back from an injury but has also never been good at any point. Expecting him to return soon enough to play and win nine games is a big ask.
Jimmy Garoppolo is waiting in the wings if Matthew Stafford's injuries sideline him for the season. We've seen Jimmy G post numbers and win games in a great system before. This is definitely a name to bet if worse Stafford news drops.
It feels absurd to consider J.J. McCarthy among the favorites. He's literally never played an actual non-preseason NFL game before. How is that a comeback? If you and I think it, it's hard not to suspect voters will feel the same way.
Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence both make a ton of sense and would rank among my top-five favorites.
Prescott got robbed for the award after returning from his dislocated ankle, and now he returns from a torn hamstring. He's still a top-10 QB leading America's Team and should post big numbers throwing to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. No reason to think Prescott wouldn't be in the mix.
Lawrence is returning from an AC sprain in his shoulder and a lost 2-8 season. He could see a big boost in his numbers in Liam Coen's system, especially with the addition of rookie Travis Hunter next to Brian Thomas Jr.
Prescott and Lawrence are bullseyes for the type of guys who win Comeback Player of the Year — as long as you like their teams to win nine games and make the playoffs. That's not an easy ask for either, and I don't see much value in either at the short number.
And then there's Tua Tagovailoa.
Why isn't Tagovailoa in that same group as Prescott or Lawrence?
We already know Tagovailoa will post awesome numbers for Mike McDaniel when healthy, and we already know the Dolphins with Tua healthy are a winning team. Tagovailoa has a winning record in all three McDaniel seasons and 4500/30 pace over 17 games.
Of course, Tagovailoa is a significant injury risk, but if he actually stays healthy for most of the season, the Dolphins should push for nine or 10 wins and the playoffs. Tagovailoa should be in the mix with any other QB option for this award.
Tagovailoa is a very easy ticket add at +3500 (DraftKings, BetMGM, ESPN Bet).
Tagovailoa, Prescott and Lawrence would be among my five most-likely winners, along with McCaffrey. But the fifth, Aaron Rodgers, isn't even bettable at any major market yet.
Group 3 — Keep an Eye on Other Unlisted Options
QB Aaron Rodgers, Steelers
QB Matthew Stafford, Rams
QB Jameis Winston, Giants
QB Carson Wentz, Vikings
WR Ricky Pearsall, 49ers
There's one other odd trend with Comeback Player of the Year — three of the last five winners weren't even supposed to be playing ball the year they won.
Joe Flacco was literally retired when the season started. Geno Smith wasn't even expected to win the QB battle, let alone an award. Alex Smith looked doubtful to ever play again, with Washington fully Dwayne Haskins' team at the time.
All three of those guys didn't even have odds listed for much of the season — I know, because I remember refreshing odds pages week after week looking for both Smith and Flacco.
It's entirely possible our 2025 Comeback Player of the Year doesn't even have odds listed yet.
Aaron Rodgers was healthy last season but is still ancient and returning from that Achilles tear two years ago — and no one ever said the injury return had to be from last season. What if the Steelers go 13-4 and contend for the AFC 1-seed?
We already mentioned Matthew Stafford above. There's been speculation for months whether Stafford can even play this season, or ever again. What if he does, looks great, and wins a bunch of games? Why can't we bet on Stafford?
What if J.J. McCarthy stinks or gets hurt and Carson Wentz steps into a great situation in Minnesota and leads them to the playoffs, looking like the MVP candidate he once was?
What if Jameis Winston helps the Giants make a playoff push in relief? Sounds crazy, but these are the sort of guys winning this award lately.
Brandon Aiyuk has betting odds, but why not Ricky Pearsall? Dude was literally shot during training camp as a rookie last year. And now because of the injuries to Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, Pearsall has a real shot to emerge as the WR1 in Kyle Shanahan's whirring offense. If he breaks out for the 49ers, why wouldn't the voters consider him?
We can't bet any of these players yet, but this is a reminder to keep an eye out for guys like these five, or others who could be added as options midseason and may very well go on to win it. You can build your position all season.
The Verdict
I'm not looking to build a big Comeback Player of the Year position heading into the season.
I'd personally make Christian McCaffrey my favorite along with Dak Prescott and Trevor Lawrence, but history is against CMC and none of the three offer much upside as the shortest favorites on the board, especially for such a goofy, narrative-driven award.
I'll open my CPOY portfolio with a bet on Tua Tagovailoa (+3500) since he belongs firmly in that group, and I'll nibble Dre Greenlaw (+15000). From there, I'll watch some of those unlisted names and look to add another couple long shots as the season progresses.
Comeback Player of the Year is an odd award, and fully narrative driven. Don't go too crazy, but sometimes odd awards featuring heavy favorites mean big opportunity for bettors.
Comeback Player of the Year Best Bets
- Tua Tagovailoa +3500 (0.5 unit)
- Dre Greenlaw +15000 (0.25 unit)
