Welcome back to the Pick Six.
Early each week, we look ahead at the upcoming NFL slate and parlay six moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — in the week to come.
It's a quick early look at the upcoming Week 11 games, and like any good pick-six, we'll wrap up with my Extra Point, one more thing you need to know and a future to bet as we flip the NFL calendar to another new week.
Week 11 is rivalry week, with 9-of-15 games played within the division. We'll start with a pick for Thursday Night Football, and then wrap up with five all at once in the early Sunday slate, including four division picks, one of them an underdog.
Our Week 11 moneyline parlay has odds at +851 at FanDuel/BetMGM at the time of publishing. Let's get to the NFL picks!
NFL Week 11 Parlay Picks
Patriots Moneyline
Jets vs Patriots; Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET
We start with Thursday Night Football.
The Patriots are the biggest favorites of the week.New England has won 16 of the last 18 matchups against the Jets, though most of those featured a certain Tom at quarterback.
But after a few brief years in the wilderness, it's clear the Pats have found their next franchise QB in Drake Maye. He is carving up defenses every week, especially deep, and he's doing it with precious little help at WR or RB.
Maye is the MVP favorite, and he should feast against a Jets defense that ranks 30th in DVOA on the season and 31st specifically against the pass.
Remember, this unit just traded away its star corner, Sauce Gardner, and its best defensive lineman, Quinnen Williams. The Jets won without them on Sunday because the Browns can't play offense — but Maye is no Dillon Gabriel.
And lest you think the Jets actually found some offense in that one — check the numbers and you'll be sadly mistaken.
This is the worst passing team in the league, and it's an especially bad matchup for a run-heavy opponent against an outstanding run defense like New England's.
Besides, do you really think New England will lose in these fresh, clean uniforms debuting Thursday night? Patriots roll.
.@Patriots debut these “Nor’Easter” NFL Nike Rivalries uniforms on TNF in Week 11 🔥
NYJvsNE– Thursday 8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Also streaming on @NFLPluspic.twitter.com/0aIyX4O1Lq— NFL (@NFL) November 10, 2025
Packers Moneyline
Packers vs Giants; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Yes, we're backing the Packers even after that anemic performance on Monday night. In fact, we're backing them in part because of it, since the poor showing actually brought the line down and bought us a bit of value.
Let's talk about the Monday night game.
Matt LaFleur had himself a nightmare with both playcalling and decision-making. A couple of the fourth-down play calls were horrendous, and the decision to attempt a field goal from 64 yards by Brandon McManus on the final play was baffling.
Green Bay did move the ball, though.
The Packers have actually gotten into opposing territory on 11 drives the last two games. That's good! It's just awful that they've scored 20 points in those games, losing both.
This offense needs healing — and the Giants just might be the perfect elixir.
What do the Packers want to do? Run the football. Run, run, then run some more, much to the chagrin of everyone watching.
And what are the Giants awful at? Stopping the run, worse than any team in the NFL — dead last in DVOA and EPA per play.
Week after week, New York gets gashed in the run game, and firing Brian Daboll isn't going to change that.
That plays right into Green Bay's hands, over insistence on the run game and all. If the Packers really want to hand off to Josh Jacobs all game, this is the perfect matchup.
It may not be pretty, nor easy with Green Bay missing TE Tucker Kraft and C Elgton Jenkins for the season, but the offense will find a way.
And the defense was outstanding on Monday night as it has been all season, and it should have no problem against whatever's left of this Giants offense that's potentially missing its top QB, RB and WR if Jaxson Dart is out.
The Packers defense could send Russell Wilson into retirement. Even double-digit points might be enough in this one.
Steelers Moneyline
Bengals vs Steelers; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
No, I don't feel particularly comfortable with this one, but scared money don't make money.
The preseason lookahead line here favored the Bengals, but a lot has happened since then. Joe Flacco is now at QB, Pittsburgh remains the midseason division leader and the Bengals have the worst defense in the league.
Yes, the actual worst. Cincinnati ranks dead last in defensive DVOA. The Bengals are last against the pass and a mere second-worst against the run.
Cincinnati is allowing 427 yards per game, which is the worst mark in the league. That includes at least 500 yards in three games already — and that was against the Broncos, Jets and Bears, two of those in Cincinnati's last two games.
Cincinnati has allowed the most rushing yards, the third-most passing yards, the most first downs and the most touchdowns. Opponents average 2.93 points per drive — a field goal every time they touch the ball.
Perhaps the defense will be a bit better after the bye week, but with its only good player, Trey Hendrickson, out again, don't count on it. Cincinnati is ripe for the picking, even by octogenarian Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers.
Actually, Rodgers may not have to do much. The Steelers aren't passing it well, but they've run the ball well all year under Arthur Smith and that's the perfect setup here against such a bad run defense.
Look for a big Jaylen Warren game and plenty of opportunity for Pittsburgh to play heavy with two and three tight ends on the field, just the way it likes.
It doesn't feel great backing the Steelers, but this Bengals defense is historically bad and Pittsburgh's offense has been better than you think, especially against subpar defenses.
You should probably bet whoever you like here to win the division, too.
The Ravens continue to be overrated in the futures market. Pittsburgh is +270 (FanDuel) to win the AFC North and still a game up on Baltimore, and the Steelers host the Ravens in Week 18 in what looks like at least a shot to win their way in.
If you prefer the Bengals, a +2000 division ticket looks pretty juicy (BetMGM), since a win would put Cincinnati a single win back in the division with a 3-0 division record and a head-to-head sweep of the Steelers.
Can I give you one more future for the road?
Ja'Marr Chase has been scorching hot the last five games, with a pace of 170 catches for 1,938 yards during that stretch. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is just ahead of that pace for the season and the clear receiving yards leader, but he's overreliant on big plays.
Chase will see huge volume all season because of the state of the Bengals defense; he sits only 210 yards behind JSN. Chase is a smart bet to lead the league in receiving yards at +550 (ESPN Bet).
Texans Moneyline
Texans vs Titans; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
It's a bit tricky betting on the Texans this early given the numerous injury unknowns.
C.J. Stroud is the biggest, of course, with T Tytus Howard and S Jalen Pitre also in concussion protocol. It's reasonable to expect the trio to play, but we don't know yet. We don't know if Jeffery Simmons or Xavier Woods will go for Tennessee either out of the bye.
What we do know is that the Titans are awful, and by most any real measure, the worst team in the league.
But you don't have to tell Houston that. Even when the Texans were fighting to stay above water in September, Houston shut out Tennessee 26-0, holding the Titans to 175 yards and just 10 first downs.
Tennessee's offense hasn't improved, even after the coaching change, and it's hard to see Cam Ward finding much success against what may be the league's best defense.
As for the other side of the ball, don't be surprised if the Texans score more than you think.
Houston has played four games this season against a defense in the top half of the league by DVOA. The Texans have yet to score 20 in any of those games, averaging 15.5 PPG. But in their other five games, the Texans are nearly double that at 28.4 PPG, with 26+ in all but one.
This division rivalry has averaged just 35.1 PPG over the last six meetings, so it may not be pretty, but the Texans offense has done just fine against subpar competition like the Titans. They're also getting some juice of late from their rookie class, and this looks like a great spot for Woody Marks to find the end zone now that he's taken over the RB job.
If you prefer to wait on this one until we get more assurance that you're not betting on Davis Mills, I don't blame you — just know that you'll pay for the information.
Bills Moneyline
Buccaneers vs Bills; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
The Bills were our only miss in last week's +503 Pick Six, and that loss stings, but bettors need to have short memories.
Tampa Bay has been a luck box all season, near the top of our Luck Rankings week after week.
The Bucs haven't been as lucky by injury, though, and stars Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin have already been ruled out again. That's left the cupboard mostly bare for Tampa, and the run game in particular has struggled.
That's a big problem in this matchup, specifically, since Buffalo's biggest flaw right now is its run defense. The Bills got lit up on a few pass plays against Miami, but it was two long De'Von Achane runs late that really put the game away.
Tampa Bay doesn't have a rushing attack to punish Buffalo's fatal weakness.
It might have the right medicine to stop Buffalo's offense some, or at least slow it, with Vita Vea and the typically great Todd Bowles run defense. But even that defense is very beatable at linebacker and over the middle of the field, so Khalil Shakir should eat underneath and James Cook may find some success if he can get to the second level.
Buffalo is reeling after that embarrassing Dolphins loss, but sometimes the best way to get right is to get back out on the field. The Bills are still the far better team with the much better offense and special teams, and they're far healthier too.
Expect the Bills to get back on track against a Tampa Bay team missing too many options to be threatening.
Panthers Moneyline
Panthers vs Falcons; Sunday 1 p.m. ET
We've reached our one big upset call of the week.
I took Carolina +3.5 on the Lookahead last week, and then doubled down with the same pick on the Hot Read on Sunday night — I'm not backing off now.
This is just an absolutely terrible spot for Atlanta. It was a bad spot before Sunday, and then it got even worse.
Remember Sunday? You watched the Falcons play Sunday morning in Berlin, and poor Atlanta got run into the ground, allowing 323 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor and company. Even worse, the game went into overtime, further wearing down the Falcons defense.
NFL teams are given the option to take a bye after an international game, but the Falcons chose not to.
Atlanta will pay the consequences, returning from six time zones away for a game with no rest, fresh off an overtime loss, in one of the worst spots of the season.
Only 18 times in the history of the international series has a team returned from an international game without a bye week, and 16 of those 18 have been tied or trailing at some point in the fourth quarter the following game.
That would give the Panthers a great chance to steal a win, and wouldn't that be something after an embarrassing loss to the Saints, which was Carolina's record 11th consecutive loss as a favorite?
But it would also make sense. Carolina is much better positioned to play as an underdog than as a favorite.
The Panthers are good at running the ball, stopping the run and shortening the game. That's an underdog formula, but it's not great as the favorite.
As the underdog here, Rico Dowdle and the Panthers should be able to run on a very beatable Falcons defense that ranks just 27th against the run by DVOA, and Derrick Brown and the defense have been stout against the run on the other end.
That sets up a physical, run-heavy game, wearing down an already weary opponent, and it should put Carolina in position to win the game late.
Don't forget, Carolina already played Atlanta earlier this season — and shut the Falcons out, 30-0!
The Panthers have two more wins than the Falcons, too, so it's a wild overreaction to make Carolina more than a field goal underdog against an Atlanta squad on a four-game losing streak. Carolina has advantages on special teams and coaching, too.
This is our big Pick Six upset pick of the week, but it probably shouldn't even be considered an upset. I make Carolina the outright favorites.
Week 11 Moneyline Parlay
- Patriots Moneyline
- Packers Moneyline
- Steelers Moneyline
- Texans Moneyline
- Bills Moneyline
- Panthers Moneyline
Anderson's Extra Point
Go for two
- Ashton Jeanty Rookie of the Year +4000
- Trey McBride Receiving TDs leader +8000
We ended our Pick Six in the early slate, even though the big games of the day come later: Seahawks–Rams in the late afternoon, then Lions–Eagles late.
If you have a read on Seattle-LA, you should bet the winner for team futures — there's value on the winner's 1-seed, NFC, and Super Bowl odds.
As for the nightcap, there's value on whichever QB wins that one: Jalen Hurts or Jared Goff at +2500 and +3000, respectively. Either winner will be in good shape for the NFC 1-seed, and that is often an MVP kingmaker.
I don't have a great read on either of those games yet, though, so we're going to eschew the Extra Point this week and go for two — two long-shot futures tickets.
Let's start with Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Emeka Egbuka is the favorite at -120 (FanDuel), and that seems a bit light considering Jaxson Dart is injured and there is not much other competition. Egbuka is on pace for 76/1,279/11, but his numbers are way down after a big opening month.
If Egbuka fades, the race could be wide open — so can I interest you in the preseason favorite?
Ashton Jeanty has disappointed, but even so, he's still on pace for almost 1,300 combined yards and 14 TDs. He's finding the end zone often for the Raiders, and his yardage has a real chance to spike down the stretch with games remaining against terrible Cowboys, Chargers and Giants run defenses.
That starts this Monday night against the Cowboys. Could Jeanty announce his entry to the league with a big game? It's probably now or never for Rookie of the Year, but let's find out at +4000 at BetMGM.
Davante Adams is leading the league in receiving touchdowns with nine, and he's the right favorite for that stat leader category. He's always a great scorer and has heated up over the past month, but he's also dealing with an oblique injury and isn't playing as many snaps as the Rams move toward 13 personnel with heavy tight ends.
After Adams are Amon-Ra St. Brown with eight receiving TDs, Dallas Goedert at seven, then a cluster of guys at five and six.
One of those guys is our pick: Trey McBride.
McBride was a frustration to fantasy owners last season, failing to find the end zone through Week 16 despite receiving a high volume of passes. But he scored a TD in each of the final two games and now has eight scores in his last 11 games after scoring just four times in his first 47 games.
More importantly, McBride is absolutely on fire with Jacoby Brissett at QB. Over these last four games with Brissett, McBride has five touchdowns, and he's basically playing like Travis Kelce or Rob Gronkowski, on pace for a season-long line of 136/1,394/21.
If Brissett stays in at QB, McBride could keep producing huge numbers.
At six TDs, he's only behind three guys right now. He has a real shot to win this category, and that makes him an incredible value play at +8000 to lead the league in receiving TDs at Caesars.
