2025 NFL Picks, Predictions: 1 Futures Bet for All 32 Teams

After an eternal offseason, the 2025 NFL season is just about here.

It's time to kickoff the new season with my preseason Power Rankings and a blowout season preview NFL futures manifesto.

Below you'll find a mini preview for all 32 NFL teams, ranked from worst to first. Each team has a 10-word thesis at the top to give you a bite-sized look at the season ahead, plus my rankings on offense, defense and coaching.

You'll also see a decision on each team's win total for the season with a decision to Bet, Lean or Pass, along with a note on scheduling for each team so you know when to invest.

Last, you'll find my favorite futures NFL best bet for each team — complete with a whole bunch of escalators, mineshafts, long shots and everything in between. Every one of these futures best bets is an actual recommendation and bet from me, one for every team.

There are over 100 bets in all, so skim or skip ahead to the teams you're interested in and get those last chance futures bets in before the new season kicks off Thursday night!

This article is the culmination of a month of NFL previews. If you're looking for more on why I have a particular team ranked a certain way, you can follow the link to read my 1-to-32 rankings for quarterbacks, skill positions, offensive lines, coaching staffs, offense and defense.

You can also read in-depth breakdowns and bets bets for all of the 2025 NFL awards:

• Offensive Rookie of the Year
• Defensive Rookie of the Year
• Offensive Player of the Year
• Defensive Player of the Year
• Comeback Player of the Year
• Coach of the Year
• Assistant Coach of the Year
• Protector of the Year

2025 NFL Picks, Predictions: Futures Bets for Every Team

32. New Orleans Saints

Offense: 31 | Defense: 30 | Coaching: 26

10 Words

Arch Manning is definitely declaring for next year's draft, right?

Season Outlook

The Saints finally hit the reset button.

Derek Carr retired. Dennis Allen is gone. More defensive names are out the door — this time it's Marshon Lattimore and Paulson Adebo.

After years of trying to compete and stay afloat, New Orleans has officially admitted defeat.

Head coach Kellen Moore and new DC Brandon Staley have their work cut out for them. The defense still has recognizable names — but they're aging rapidly. Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave still give hope to the offense, as long as they're healthy.

The strengths that defined this team in the trenches are long gone, and the Saints might have the worst quarterback room in the league. Rookie Tyler Shough turns 26 in a month but couldn't even beat out Spencer Rattler.

This is a team in the wilderness.

Biggest Questions

• Will the offense or defense finish closer to the bottom of the league? I ranked both bottom three. The defense was fading hard under Allen but still has talent at linebacker and rushing the passer. The offense has … Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave.
• The Saints will start a first-round rookie LT for a third consecutive season in Kelvin Banks. This team invested a ton into its offensive line — will it finally find some answers?

Schedule Analysis

The Saints have the softest second-half schedule in the league by DVOA — thanks to a back-loaded NFC South schedule but a pretty brutal opening stretch: Cardinals, 49ers, Seahawks, Bills, and then a winnable home game against the Giants before four more against the Patriots, Bears, Bucs and Rams. Kellen Moore could be waiting awhile to get that first win as a head coach.

Win Total: Under 4.5 (Pass)

There's little reason to expect this team to be anything other than awful, but this is just too low a number to play with confidence — especially in a terrible division with such a soft closing schedule. There are better ways to fade a bad team.

Futures Best Bet: Last winless team +850 (ESPN Bet)

Lean in to the tank. Look at that opening schedule again. Eight of the first nine games are against teams I ranked in the top half of the league.

The Saints will probably need to lose that Giants game to cash this, but +850 is a crazy long number for a team this bad that appears to be leaning into the tank.

If you prefer to get out early, you can bet zero wins in September at +200 (ESPN Bet) and avoid that game against New York, but the Giants defense is by far the best unit in that game.

Worst record in the league is tough with Cleveland also presumably in the tanking mix, but you can bet the Saints to be the NFC 16-seed at +225 (ESPN Bet) and avoid the Browns if you like.

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31. Cleveland Browns

Offense: 32 | Defense: 16 | Coaching: 22

10 Words

The Browns are openly tanking, with 17 quarterbacks to boot.

Season Outlook

Joe Flacco was drafted in 2008, basically retired in 2022, and somehow he will be the Browns' Opening Day starter in 2025.

Flacco beat out rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. The Browns traded for Kenny Pickett to replace the injured Deshaun Watson and departed Jameis Winston and Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and then traded Pickett away and replaced him with Bailey Zappe.

Exhausted yet?

Because we can do another version of that paragraph for running back, wide receiver, linebacker, defensive tackle and more. This is a team in total flux after turning over a ton of its roster, especially on defense. It feels like an NBA tank job.

The offense looks relatively hopeless unless Flacco still has some magic in the tank.

The defense could bounce back after a terrible season — but do the Browns even want it to?

Biggest Questions

• Can Myles Garrett and DC Jim Schwartz rebuild the defense? The unit finished bottom 10 in Defensive DVOA in two of the last three seasons but No. 2 in the middle. How much can Cleveland's rookies help? Mason Graham could bolster the line, and LB Carson Schwesinger is getting rave reviews and is one of my two picks for Defensive Rookie of the Year at +3500 (BetMGM).
• How far has the offensive line fallen? Cleveland ranked in my top five for four consecutive years entering the season before plummeting to bottom 10 this fall. Can guards Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller rebound for this rapidly aging unit?

Schedule Analysis

If the Browns are trying to tank, they should get off to a good start.

Cleveland opens against the Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions and Vikings. Flacco should absorb most of that pain, but the Browns will have four more division games — plus the 49ers and Bills later — so it won't be easy for them to find the right moment to roll one of their rookie QBs out there.

Win Total: Under 5.5 (BET)

The Browns have only four overs in the past 17 seasons, and every loss gets Cleveland closer to drafting a real quarterback instead of the current pupu platter of options. Why this line is still available at 5.5 at some books instead of a lower number is beyond me.

This is a multi-unit bet at 5.5 (BetMGM). I project the Browns under four wins.

Futures Best Bet: 0 Browns wins after five weeks +340 (DraftKings)

Did you see that opening stretch?

The Browns will be deserving massive underdogs against the Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions and Vikings, and voila, 0-5 and this bet cashes. At +340, you effectively have to believe the Browns have under a 25% chance to lose each game. You can find that bet under Fast Futures (Team) on DraftKings.

If you're looking for other ways to fade the Browns, I also like Cleveland AFC seeding over 13.5 (-125, ESPN Bet) — what three AFC teams is this squad finishing ahead of?! — and 16-seed at +225.

If you prefer a safer cash, last in division at -300 (DraftKings) looks like an easy one as long as the bottom doesn't fall out on Pittsburgh.

30. New York Giants

Offense: 30 | Defense: 12 | Coaching: 31

10 Words

How far can a ferocious defensive line take Jaxson Dart?

Season Outlook

The Daniel Jones experiment is officially over. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston will hold down the fort until the Jaxson Dart era begins.

Dart looked great in the preseason and gets to start his career with one of the best young blindside protectors in the league in Andrew Thomas and a budding superstar WR in Malik Nabers. The rest of the offense remains a work in progress.

New York's upside is undoubtedly its defense, specifically the defensive front.

Dexter Lawrence is the league's most valuable man in the middle; the G-Men added stud rookie edge rusher Abdul Carter on top of Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, plus an influx of talent in the secondary to boot. Could this be a potential top-10 defense under Shane Bowen?

Biggest Questions

• Can Nabers and Thomas actually stay healthy? The Giants have finished bottom six in Passing DVOA offensively in six of the past seven seasons and quickly descend to as bad an offense as anyone with either of their stars out.
• Exactly how hot is Brian Daboll's seat? It was a surprise to many to see Daboll return, and the offense has cratered the past two seasons under his watch.

Schedule Analysis

When exactly do the Giants throw Dart into the fire?

Wilson will start the season, but the Giants have an absolutely brutal stretch from Weeks 6-12 against the Eagles, Broncos, Eagles (again), 49ers, Bears, Lions and Patriots. New York heads to its bye from there, but can the Giants really wait that long?

Win Total: Over 5.5 (Pass)

The Giants have only gone over twice in the last 14 seasons (2-11-1 to the under).

All it takes this year is six wins, but New York could sneak a win or two in September with its D-line feasting against the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs and Chargers — those teams are in flux on the offensive line.

Futures Best Bet: NFC seeding under 14.5 (+120, ESPN Bet)

There are 16 teams in the NFC. The Giants just need to be better than any two of them to cash this bet.

And unless you believe in the Saints for some reason, New York only needs one more. Even an injury-riddled or tanking opponent will do — and remember, the Giants already have their QB and no reason to tank to end the season.

It's a pretty low bar, and we're getting plus money for our trouble.

Just beat two NFC teams, Giants.

29. Carolina Panthers

Offense: 25 | Defense: 32 | Coaching: 20

10 Words

The Panthers are improving — but don't confuse improvement for good.

Season Outlook

There's optimism around the Panthers after an encouraging close to the season, but it should be guarded optimism.

Head coach Dave Canales seemed to find a few answers for Bryce Young and you can see it in his confidence, but Young has a long ways to go and not many options to throw to until first-round rookie Tetairoa McMillan proves he can be that guy. The offense is headed in the right direction with a beefy offensive line and underrated run game.

The defense has even further to go than the offense. This defense was the worst in the league a year ago, and though they return a healthy Derrick Brown and turned over about half the starters, DC Ejiro Evero has plenty of work to do.

This unit isn't as bad as it looked last season, but Carolina has now finished bottom 10 in Defensive DVOA in six of the last seven seasons.

Biggest Questions

• How much hope can the Panthers realistically have this season? That probably depends on whether the NFC South is as bad as it looks. Offensive line injuries for the Bucs and Falcons potentially put all four teams in the league's bottom 10, giving Carolina a chance.
• Bryce Young definitely isn't good — yet. Is he at least a replacement-level starter now? A top-25 QB? Can he approach league average? Those are significant differences, and the Panthers need an answer by season's end.

Schedule Analysis

It's a relatively winnable opening stretch if the Panthers play well out of the gates, but they have a six-game midseason stretch featuring the Bills, Packers, Falcons, 49ers and Rams that will probably spell the end to any real hope.

The Panthers play the Bucs twice in the final three weeks. That could be good if they're close in the division, but it's probably bad since Tampa Bay should be much healthier then than now.

Win Total: Under 6.5 (Pass)

Carolina has gone under in six of its last seven seasons.

That midseason stretch looks like death, so a live season under entering around Week 8 might be the way to go.

Futures Best Bet: 2-0 head-to-head vs Saints (+165, ESPN Bet)

We're not asking for much here.

Carolina doesn't need to win the NFC South. The Panthers don't have to beat the Bucs or the Falcons.  They don't even have to hit the over.

They just need to beat the Saints. Just sweep the lowly, tanking Saints. Both games are in the second half of the season should mean Tyler Shough, and Carolina even gets a week of rest before the trip to New Orleans.

Beat the Saints twice, cash a plus-number ticket.

Easy.

28. Dallas Cowboys

Offense: 16 | Defense: 22 > 29 (post-Parsons trade) | Coaching: 32

10 Words

Gosh, good thing we saved all that Micah Parsons money!!

Season Outlook

Micah Parsons is gone. Jerry Jones remains. Long live the king.

The Parsons deal was an absolute stunner, and it could be devastating for this team both short and long term.

Parsons is the best defender in the league, the sort of force multiplier that makes every player on the field around him better. Without him, the Cowboys have virtually no pass rush, which makes the secondary all the more beatable and the still-poor run defense even more glaring.

This unit was fading already. Without Parsons, this could be a bottom-five defense. Dallas led the league in EPA per play defensively with Parsons on the field the last four seasons. Without him — in over 1,000 plays — it ranked 31st.

The offense has talent but can only do so much. This could end up looking like the NFC's version of the Bengals, with Dak Prescott ripping it all season long to CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens as the offense tries to keep up with the points the defense is giving up.

You don't just trade the best defender in the league on the brink of the season and not pay the consequences.

Biggest Questions

• What does trading Parsons this late do to Dallas' locker room? Will this team still play for Jerry Jones? Will they quiet quit on a season that might be over before it even began? Could they rally with the guys left and new coach Brian Schottenheimer? Anything is possible, I suppose.
• What will the offense look like? Schottenheimer hired creative run designer Klayton Adams as his new offensive coordinator but will reportedly call plays himself. More from Adams and passing coordinator Ken Dorsey would be exciting, especially for a young offensive line still taking shape and the worst RB room in the league. More Schotty is … also a choice.
• How far will the Cowboys' special teams fall with the departure of ST coach John Fassel? He helped that unit finish top 10 in DVOA in each of the past five seasons.

Schedule Analysis

Dallas plays on opening night in Philadelphia against the champs but otherwise has a top-10 easiest first-half schedule before a top-five most difficult second half.

That could spell big trouble for a team entering the season with a ton of injuries — and no Micah Parsons — if they start slow and then hit a closing stretch against the Eagles, Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Chargers, and Commanders starting the week of Thanksgiving.

Win Total: Under 7.5 (BET)

I was looking for ways to invest in long-tail Dallas upside outcomes before the trade — Parsons to win Defensive Player of the Year was my favorite bet of the awards season, and I already bet Schottenheimer for Coach of the Year. I couldn't be more out on this team now.

I dropped Dallas from 7.5 to 6.3 wins in my projections after the Parsons deal, and I'd be eyeing long-tail negative outcomes now. This just feels like a trade that could crush an entire team's vibes entering a season, especially with the coaching and talent drain that's occurred over the last couple years.

Some books haven't budged off a 7.5 win total after the Parsons trade.

Snag the under if it's still available at a decent price.

Futures Best Bet: 0 Cowboys wins in September (+750, ESPN Bet)

If you think the Parsons trade could leave the Cowboys reeling entering the new season, things could get ugly quickly.

No one will begrudge an Opening Night loss in Philly, but then it's a tough test for this offensive line against a fearsome Giants defensive front in Week 2. If Dallas loses that one, panic could set in quickly at 0-2 with far more talented Bears and Packers teams up next.

If you don't have ESPN Bet, you can play this as a Fast Future at DraftKings but will need to include a Week 5 game against a Jets team on short rest, so that's hardly worth the boost to +900.

27. Indianapolis Colts

Offense: 26 | Defense: 14 | Coaching: 18

10 Words

Guess we're doing this Daniel Jones thing for some reason.

Season Outlook

The Colts made the baffling decision to start Daniel Jones over Anthony Richardson, a move that raises their short-term floor a touch but feels baffling in the long run.

Richardson leaves plenty to be desired, but what is Jones going to do behind an offensive line that lost two starters and a run game featuring a quietly fading Jonathan Taylor? This offense feels vanilla and low ceiling.

The defense is more interesting now that DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are healthy up the middle. The unit finally gets a new voice post-Gus Bradley in Lou Anarumo, but he's typically been more reputation than results.

The defense should be just close enough to league average to keep the floor from falling out too badly in the lowly AFC South.

Biggest Questions

• No, seriously … why are we playing Daniel Jones? What is the goal here?
• The spine of this team has kept the Colts from falling too far in recent years, even without quality QB play. How far will the offensive line drop off without C Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries? And is Shane Steichen still the answer at coach, or could he be on his way out if he can't save Anthony Richardson's career?

Schedule Analysis

If you believe in the Colts, every game in the first 10 weeks before the bye looks winnable if they find some offense and catch a few breaks. But the closing stretch after the Week 11 bye is pretty rough: Chiefs, Seahawks, 49ers and two against the Texans.

Win Total: Under 7.5 (BET)

I project the Colts just over six wins, last in the AFC South.

The Colts have only gone over three times in 10 seasons. Indianapolis has typically kept a pretty solid floor, but if the bottom falls out, things could get ugly late en route to a top-five pick and a new QB.

This could also be an in-season under play if you want to wait out the early, more winnable stretch.

Futures Best Bet: Fewest wins (+2200, Caesars)

This is probably just another 7-8 win team with a decent floor and zero ceiling, and it'll be hard to bottom out entirely when the AFC South features so many winnable games.

But if neither Jones nor Richardson can find any offense or wins early, things get ugly late and the Colts would be very incentivized to blow the whole thing up and start over with a new quarterback.

Maybe even Peyton's nephew.

26. New York Jets

Offense: 29 | Defense: 18 | Coaching: 29

10 Words

Last season sure didn't work.

Reset the culture, Aaron Glenn.

Season Outlook

Success for the Jets in 2025 simply looks like turning the page toward the future.

Goodbye, Aaron Rodgers. So long, veteran tackles. Farewell, Robert Saleh, Nathaniel Hackett and Jeff Ulbrich. Don't let the door hit you on your way out.

The Jets have turned to the future by bringing in Aaron Glenn in an attempt to reset the culture and instill some belief in this defense once again. The offense is officially turning the page toward the future with a pair of young first-round tackles in Olu Fashanu and Armand Membou, and a stop-gap quarterback in Justin Fields. It's even an entirely fresh start on special teams.

Hopes appear to be pretty moderate in the interim, but the Jets may settle for just competing and not embarrassing themselves in the meantime.

Biggest Questions

• What will new OC Tanner Engstrand's offense look like? Engstrand comes from the run-first Ben Johnson coaching tree, so how will he elevate this young line and unleash Fields, Breece Hall and Braelon Allen as a three-headed rushing attack?
• How much can this defense bounce back? Was last year just an anomaly for guys like Sauce Gardner and Quincy Williams and a defense that finally let go of the rope?
• Will these run-heavy Jets games be done every Sunday afternoon before the rest of the league even hits the fourth quarter?

Schedule Analysis

Let's be honest: Jets fans care about one game and one game alone on the schedule: opening week when Pittsburgh and That Guy come back to town.

Win Total: Over 6.5 (Pass)

The defense should improve enough to keep things competitive, but the offense will probably end up near the bottom of the league unless Fields magically learns how to pass on his third NFL team.

This number looks just about right.

Futures Best Bet: Braelon Allen to lead the Jets in touchdowns +1400 (bet365)

Allen is the big, bruising back and should get goal-line carries behind a young, improving line in a run-first offense.

Breece Hall has never topped five rushing TDs in his career, and Justin Fields is less of a Tush Push kinda guy and more of a get-to-the-sidelines runner. For a team that could struggle to score, five or six TDs could be enough.

If you like this type of bet, I also like David Montgomery to lead the Lions in touchdowns (+1400, bet365) and Jerome Ford to lead the Browns (+1600).

25. Tennessee Titans

Offense: 28 | Defense: 29 | Coaching: 30

10 Words

Sweeping improvements across the roster, but is Cam Ward ready?

Season Outlook

The Titans look like they could be one of the most improved teams in the league — though it might be more under-the-radar aspects that fans won't notice as much.

Tennessee had the worst offensive line in the league a couple years ago but has invested heavily to fix the problem. T Dan Moore and G Kevin Zeitler add veteran leadership, and the healthy return of C Lloyd Cushenberry, along with the development of the young guys under Bill Callahan, could mean an above-average line.

The Titans could also see a massive swing at special teams. They were the worst special teams unit in the league last year by a mile — with impossibly bad punting and terrible returners — but overhauled every special teams position and brought in a great ST coach in John Fassel, who's units finished top 10 in DVOA each of the last five seasons in Dallas.

And then, of course, there's quarterback.

No. 1 pick Cam Ward is untested, but it's hard to imagine him hurting the team more than Will Levis, who constantly took egregious sacks and put the ball in harm's way.

This team is still finding itself, but better play in the trenches and special teams and improved QB play will go a long way.

Biggest Questions

• How good can Ward be as a rookie? Eight quarterbacks have been drafted No. 1 overall in the last decade. Those eight averaged just 3.4 wins in their rookie seasons, and none of them won more than six games. Can Ward break the trend, or is there a glass ceiling in Year One?
• DC Dennard Wilson quietly had an impressive debut year helping this defense finish around league average, but the Titans don't have a ton of high-end talent outside of tackle. Can Wilson coax another average defense out of this group?

Schedule Analysis

The offensive line is improved, but it'll be tested early against a ton of good young pass rushers with the Broncos, Rams, Colts and Texans to start the season. That could make for a tough opening month for Cam Ward, particularly on the road in Denver.

Win Total: Over 6.5 (Pass)

There's so much to like about Tennessee's improvement to its core, but Brian Callahan and this staff are just as unproven as Ward. And recent history says six wins is the ceiling for a No. 1 QB in his rookie season.

Tennessee has gone under in three straight after no unders in six seasons before that. This might be a year too early to invest in this squad.

Futures Best Bet: Titans over 5.5 wins & Patriots over 7.5 wins (+190, FanDuel)

For Titans fans still longing for the days of Mike Vrabel, this is the perfect bet.

Seven wins may be one too many for Ward, but six looks doable in this division, and the Patriots are another one of the most improved squads in the league.

This is a "Bussin' with the Boys" Futures Special at FanDuel and a great way to bet on two improving rosters with discounted win totals. You can read the case for New England below.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

Offense: 19 | Defense: 25 | Coaching: 21

10 Words

Coen, Lawrence, BTJ and Hunter could be a dynamic offense.

Season Outlook

It was time for a change in Jacksonville, and after a bit of wavering, former Bucs OC Liam Coen took the head coaching job.

Coen worked wonders in Tampa, getting brilliant seasons out of his WRs and a career year from Baker Mayfield, which makes the setup pretty clear. Trevor Lawrence has all the tools and two incredible weapons in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Can he finally put it all together?

Jacksonville's defense was terrible last season, especially against the pass. New DC Anthony Campanile got great results turning the Packers into a run-stopping defense last season, and the Jaguars have plenty of young talent — especially at linebacker.

This is a young team with plenty of upside and a heap of variance. Jacksonville wasn't as bad as it looked last year, thanks to just nine turnovers forced and a 3-10 record in one-score games.

A bit of luck and some improvement could mean .500 ball.

Biggest Questions

• How high can this offense fly under Coen? Jacksonville's O-line is pretty weak, a big departure from Coen's Bucs offense, and the run game has been tepid for years but that was the case in Tampa before Coen got a hold of it. What will Travis Hunter's role be on this team and in this attack? Can Coen finally help Lawrence play consistent, top-10 QB football over a whole season?
• Is this coaching staff too young? Coen, Campanile, and OC Grant Udinski are exciting hires oozing with upside, but they bring precious little experience; this staff did not surround itself with many veterans. Head coach is an entirely different job than calling plays, and Coen wouldn't be the first to struggle trying to do both. There could be as steep a learning curve for the coaches as for the young offense.

Schedule Analysis

It's a pretty tough opening stretch before the Week 8 bye, with games against the Bengals, Texans, 49ers, Chiefs, Seahawks and Rams. It's not hard to imagine this young, inexperienced staff getting buried early — but it's a far easier back half if the Jags can hang in.

Win Total: Under 7.5 (Lean)

There's reason to be bullish on the long-term outlook of this offense, but it looks like a steep learning curve in September and October against that opening schedule.

There's a world where this squad gets hot late and is the proverbial team no one wants to face, but that may be too late. Jacksonville has gone under in 12 of 14 seasons with only three seasons over six wins since 2020, averaging under five wins a season.

Futures Best Bet: Travis Hunter to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1200, ESPN Bet)

It looks like Hunter could step into the power slot role Coen used Chris Godwin in last year. Godwin was on pace for 120 catches and 1,400 yards before his injury.

Hunter led the nation with 96 catches and 15 TDs en route to his Heisman victory. He's an elite WR prospect who looks likely to play more offense early, and if that's the case, any occasional defensive highlights will just add extra credit to his case.

Jacksonville vacates 153 catches with the departures of Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, so there will be plenty of work for both Hunter and Brian Thomas Jr., who I also bet as an Offensive Player of the Year long shot (+4000, BetRivers).

This offense is all upside once Lawrence finds his way under Coen, and Hunter will get plenty of buzz for Offensive Rookie of the Year if he produces.

23. Las Vegas Raiders

Offense: 21 | Defense: 31 | Coaching: 14

10 Words

It's hard to improve more at QB, RB, and coaching.

Season Outlook

Some teams — like Tennessee and New England — improved in incremental volume by adding a heap of quality starters. The Raiders' improvement is centralized in three key areas, but it's hard to improve much more than they did at each spot.

That starts with the trade for Geno Smith, improving Las Vegas from near bottom of the league at QB to a guy I have ranked top 10. It's extremely rare for a team to get that level of leap at the most important position in the league.

Running back is far less important, but the Raiders got awful production from guys like Zamir White last season, so rookie Ashton Jeanty should be a massive upgrade there.

And then there's the coaching staff.

Las Vegas ranked dead last heading into last season but swapped out Antonio Pierce for the legendary Pete Carroll, along with innovative OC Chip Kelly. We'll see how Kelly does in a second stint in the NFL, but he should add creativity to this run game, and Carroll should bring a badly-needed culture change and winning attitude.

The rest of the Raiders' roster leaves plenty to be desired, but it's impossible to overstate that level of swing at QB and coaching.

Biggest Questions

• What can DC Patrick Graham get out of a defense that looks one of the least talented in the league on paper? Graham quietly had this defense playing great ball to end last season, but the team lost many of the key veterans whop played so well late. A healthier season from Maxx Crosby will help, but this might be the worst secondary in the league.
• How quickly can Kelly find answers on offense? The window isn't long at Smith's age, and the offensive line probably won't help much, nor one of the worst receiver rooms in the league. Can Kelly unleash Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer and play out of two-TE sets to limit the WR issues? Will any of the three rookie Raiders receivers step up?

Schedule Analysis

If the Raiders are close enough to make a playoff push, they better take care of business early.

Las Vegas has to play the Eagles, Texans and Chiefs in three of its final four games.

Win Total: Over 6.5 (Pass)

This feels like a team to invest in because of the stark improvement at quarterback and coaching, but the quality of the defense and the tough division mean this win total may not be the right way to invest.

Futures Best Bet: AFC West 1-2 Exact: Chiefs 1, Raiders 2 (+1400, DraftKings)

I project the Raiders last in the AFC West, but not by much — only about a game below the Chargers and Broncos, both of whom look due to regress.

Denver's defense and special teams are likely worse, not better, and that could put the tenuous offense in a tougher place. The Chargers will badly miss LT Rashawn Slater and lack talent defensively. The Chiefs have a few reasons for concern, but this is still their division by margin.

The Raiders have improved enough to contend with Denver and L.A., especially with a last-place schedule. If Las Vegas does add a few wins, it would likely come at the expense of its division foes.

And if the Chiefs are that far ahead in the division, they could rest Week 18 in Vegas.

22. Miami Dolphins

Offense: 14 | Defense: 24 | Coaching: 17

10 Words

Guess we're running back this McDaniel and Tua offense again?

Season Outlook

The vibes out of Miami this offseason are … what's the opposite of immaculate? The vibes are maculate?

Something is rotten in the state of Florida, and it might be the dying corpse of Mike McDaniel's dream offense.

At its best, the Dolphins offense has melted our faces off. It's been capable of scoring on any play from anywhere on the field. It dropped 70 on the Broncos less than two years ago. When Tua Tagovailoa is out there and the weapons are healthy and the weather is good and the opponent is beatable, the Dolphins look like world beaters.

But it's all those conditionalities that are the problem, isn't it?

Sometimes the opponent has other plans, and sometimes it's bad weather, and sometimes the offense needs a backup plan when the first option doesn't work or Tagovailoa is injured. McDaniel hasn't shown the ability to find answers, and perhaps that's why he's got the shortest odds to be the first coach fired at some books.

The Dolphins are far too talented to be written off entirely, but they're also far too inconsistent to be taken seriously.

Biggest Questions

• What in the world is going on with Tyreek Hill? Is De'Von Achane healthy? How many games will Tagovailoa play? Impossible — but important — questions for an offense that only seems to function when everything is just right.
• How bad will the offensive line be without retired LT Terron Armstead? Can McDaniel continue to hide his offensive line woes, or will it lead to a lack of a run game or Plan B?
• We haven't even mentioned this team turning over its entire five-man secondary. Jalen Ramsey is gone, along with Jevon Holland and pretty much everyone else back there. The Dolphins will start something named Storm Duck at corner. The front seven is talented though, and the Fins have a pass rush now that Bradley Chubb and Jaelan Phillips are healthy next to Chop Robinson. So what can Anthony Weaver's defense do? Can they play well enough to provide a more stable floor so the offense doesn't have to do everything?

Schedule Analysis

This doesn't feel like a particularly great schedule for this particular Miami team.

The offense faces a slew of creative defensive innovators in the first half of its schedule — Lou Anarumo, Mike Vrabel, Aaron Glenn, Sean McDermott (twice), Jesse Minter and Jim Schwartz — an unwelcome sign for this offense.

And if the team is still in contention late, it has three potential bad weather outdoors games in New York, Pittsburgh and New England from December forward.

Win Total: Under 7.5 (Pass)

The Dolphins went under for the first time in seven seasons last fall, but this does not feel like a team to bet median outcomes with.

If you believe in McDaniel's offense, play the long tail up and maybe it all stays healthy and bounces back. If you don't like the vibes, go all the way the other direction.

Stay away from the unpredictable middle.

Futures Best Bet: Tua Tagovailoa to win Comeback Player of the Year (+3500, DraftKings)

CPOY has become another quarterback award, with QBs consistently winning over half of them. Overcome an injury at QB, make the playoffs, and voila! You're Comeback Player of the Year.

We already know Tagovailoa will put up outstanding numbers while on the field, and he'll probably win, too.

He has a winning record in all three seasons under McDaniel. The problem is staying on the field.

This then is just a bet on injury luck. If Tagovailoa stays healthy, this offense probably wins 10 games and he's just as likely to win the award as Dak Prescott, Trevor Lawrence or the other major CPOY candidates.

21. Washington Commanders

Offense: 17 | Defense: 27 | Coaching: 16

10 Words

Everyone likes Washington, but is this a one-man show?

Season Outlook

It's crazy how much this team feels like last year's Texans — and not in a good way.

Everyone was shocked by Houston's breakout in 2023 and jumped aboard the bandwagon last fall after they made a couple splashy signings in the trenches and at receiver to complement C.J. Stroud's sophomore season.

Sound familiar?

Washington leapt from out of nowhere to 12-5 and returns a buzzy sophomore QB in Jayden Daniels. The Commanders' big splash offseason moves were WR Deebo Samuel and LT Laremy Tunsil — now everyone's aboard this team as a potential Super Bowl contender. I'm not convinced they're even a playoff team.

This team had the win profile of something like a 10-win team, and that's before factoring in the outlandish ability the Commanders had to come through time and again on fourth down and late in games on huge swing plays. Washington converted an insane 20-of-23 fourth downs last season, an irreplicable 87% conversion rate for over 44 EPA. Almost a quarter of all Commanders points scored (23.7%) came on a drive that included a fourth-down conversion.

What Washington did last fall was magical, but magic doesn't often repeat itself.

The offensive line is missing Sam Cosmi and starting two new tackles, and the unit tailed off badly after an early leap from what most considered the worst line in the league entering last season. The defense is also littered with question marks and rapidly aging answers.

Daniels looks awesome, but removing QB from the equation, Washington ranks bottom five in the NFL for the rest of its team in my rosters matrix. It's tough for one man to do it all, especially as a slight-framed sophomore still learning the ropes.

Biggest Questions

• How good can Jayden Daniels be already as a sophomore? And how good does he have to be for this team to win 12 games again?
• How much should we trust Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury? Quinn developed a quick reputation for being overly aggressive, but aggression works much better when you're converting 87% of your fourth downs. Kingsbury found some solutions in the run game, but also saw his line and schemes found out a bit toward the end of the season — not unlike his usual second-half collapses as a head coach for the Cardinals. Does Quinn have any answers in defense without great edge rushers or corners? Can Kingsbury avoid his usual Kliff?
• How worried should we be about the age and health of this roster? And how far down can the bottom drop out if things start to go sideways?

Schedule Analysis

The Commanders play 10 of their 17 games against teams I project to finish top 12 defensively. That's putting an awful lot on the shoulders of Daniels and a playcaller whose offense has a reputation for being relatively simple.

Washington also plays two of its final three games against the Eagles after a tough middle stretch, so the Commanders need to hit the ground running.

Win Total: Under 9.5 (Multi-unit BET)

This is my favorite win total on the board.

I project Washington a full 2.5 wins below this number, more in contention for a top-10 pick than the Super Bowl.

The Commanders have only gone over in five of the last 15 seasons before jumping from four to 12 wins last year. Only three of 35 teams that improved by 6+ wins since 2006 improved again the next season; the average team dropped 2.7 wins.

Futures Best Bet: Commanders Mineshaft — Under 9.5, Miss Playoffs (+130); Under 7.5 (+320, DraftKings)

I'm all the way out on Washington this season.

I don't like anything about this roster or team outside of Daniels, and I don't trust him yet to do everything on his own — if he even stays fully healthy a second straight season, which is not given considering his slight frame and dangerous play style.

I'm taking the Washington mineshaft and a step-back season for an overrated roster in a crowded NFC.

Play the traditional under 9.5 for multiple units, and add miss playoffs at plus money — heck, they could do that at 10 wins in the NFC.

Then take it a step further and grab an alt under 7.5 at +320 in case things really go sideways.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

Offense: 24 | Defense: 2 | Coaching: 13

10 Words

Mike Tomlin still has never finished a season below .500.

Season Outlook

How many times can we really keep doing the same Tomlin thing?

Pittsburgh claws and fights, somehow turns a seven-win roster into a nine-win season, celebrates another year with the Tomlin .500 stat, and gets blown out in the playoffs. Lather, rinse, repeat.

This season feels like more of the same with mostly like-for-like substitutions.

Goodbye Russell Wilson; hello Aaron Rodgers. George Pickens out for DK Metcalf. Minkah Fitzpatrick swapped for Jalen Ramsey. Rookie Kaleb Johnson in for Najee Harris.

You can debate which side of those swaps you'd want to be on — it's probably Rodgers and Ramsey but tough to know for sure at their ages — but we're basically running this back again.

Still, it's tough to argue with the results.

The defense has finished top half of the league in 10 straight seasons, including top 10 in Passing DVOA five of the last six years and top seven against the run in five of seven. This defense could be even better with the additions at cornerback — assuming the older guys like Ramsey, Cam Heyward, T.J. Watt and Darius Slay stay on the field and don't lose a step.

Arthur Smith's offense is what it is. If the defense is great again, the Steelers should float around .500 like always.

Biggest Questions

• Do Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf fit together, and do either one of them even remotely fit in Arthur Smith's offense? Smith wants to control things and run, run, run, and then attack the middle of the field. Rodgers wants to do it his way and rely on timing, not hand the ball off and chuck it deep to Metcalf. Can this talent add up to anywhere near the sum of its parts?
• We know the defense will be good. Can it be great? Tomlin's defenses have ranked top 14 in DVOA in all but two of his 18 seasons in charge, but they've finished top eight in under half of those. Good isn't good enough on this roster.

Schedule Analysis

Stop me if you've heard this before: the Steelers have a ridiculously easy schedule the first half — third easiest by DVOA — but the toughest schedule in the league in the second half. If that sounds familiar, it's because Pittsburgh had nearly identical schedule splits last season.

From Week 11 forward, Pittsburgh goes Cincinnati (off its bye), at Chicago, Buffalo (on extra rest), at Baltimore (on extra rest), Monday night against Miami, short rest at Detroit, at Cleveland, Baltimore to close out.

That's absolutely brutal, especially if Pittsburgh's older players hit a wall over the back half of the season.

Win Total: Under 8.5 (Pass)

Of course, this line is right at the magical .500 Tomlin stat line.

Signs point under, but the Steelers are 8-2 to the over in the past decade, and how do you take an under right now when the team has such a soft early schedule?

This practically screams in-season under.

Let Pittsburgh go 6-3 early, bump this 8.5 by a win or two, then slam the under the other direction with that nasty closing schedule coming.

Futures Best Bet: Pittsburgh Stage of Elimination, Wild-Card Round (+290, DraftKings)

Do I even need to explain it at this point?

Tomlin never finishes below .500, but he never wins playoff games anymore. The Steelers have lost six consecutive playoff openers under Tomlin, all but one by double digits.

Bet on Pittsburgh making but flaming immediately out of the playoffs. Grab that in-season under 9.5 in late October, and watch as the Steelers finish 9-8 and then lose by 17 in the first round for the 79th straight year.

Everyone's happy and you cash both sides of your bet.

19. Denver Broncos

Offense: 22 | Defense: 8 | Coaching: 12

10 Words

The fun police are here to clown everyone's favorite sleeper.

Season Outlook

The 2024 Broncos always felt overstated.

The Broncos finished top five in DVOA on both defense and special teams but were league average on offense; they back-doored their way into the playoffs with a metrics-boosting 38-0 win against the Chiefs' backups, and promptly no-showed in the playoffs like the nothing burger they were once they got there.

Sean Payton's offense has been average at best in Denver. It's not nothing getting an average showing out of a rookie QB, but the skill positions on this team are among the worst in the league unless the new rookies flash. Bo Nix and company benefited greatly from constantly playing on the front foot with great field position and positive game script last year.

Offense tends to be stickier from one season to the next than defense.

The defense brings all its key names back with the addition of Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, and first-round CB Jahdae Barron — that's what everyone's excited about, but elite defense is hard to replicate.

I'm skeptical.

Vance Joseph's defense had never finished top 10 in PPG in eight previous seasons, and his unit ranked 20th or worse against the run in all but two of those before leaping to No. 1 last season. Joseph plays an aggressive, attacking defense that leaves his secondary exposed and covers up the weaknesses of a less talented front. When it works, it's great; when it doesn't, it can be disastrous.

The Broncos played seven games last season against backup quarterbacks, greatly boosting their defensive metrics. Denver was 1-6 against teams with a top-12 DVOA offense, counting the playoffs, and this vaunted defense gave up 30 or more points in over half of those games.

This defense looked, at times, like a house of cards, and Nix and the offense aren't ready to make up for any drop-off.

Biggest Questions

• Denver finished 30th in Defensive DVOA one season before leaping all the way to fourth. Many of the key names everyone now considers stars — Patrick Surtain, Zach Allen, Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper — were on both rosters. If all those guys were such surefire young stars in the making, how come no one saw it coming? How sticky will this defensive performance be year-over-year? Can it perform against starting QBs? Can it continue to prop up an underwhelming offense?
• The Broncos had finished bottom 10 in special teams seven consecutive seasons before a random leap into the top five and now will start a rookie punter. If that unit regresses to the mean, will that take away another hidden advantage for this offense?

Schedule Analysis

Denver's schedule is softer in the first half, including opening games against a debuting Cam Ward and then Daniel Jones. That certainly sets this defense up for a hot start, but can it hold up against good QBs later?

From Week 8 forward, every single remaining Broncos game comes against quarterbacks I ranked in my top 13, all but two against top-10 guys. Is Joseph's defense really ready for the test? We're about to find out, week after week.

Win Total: Under 9.5 (BET)

Denver went over its win total for the first time in nine seasons last fall.

The Broncos also won eight games by double digits and a ninth by nine points. Only one team since 1998 with nine double-digit wins improved its record the following season; on average, those teams dropped by 3.9 wins the following year.

This defense reminds me so much of Jim Schwartz's Browns, which leapt from bottom 10 to No. 2 in 2023, then promptly fell right back to the bottom 10 last fall.

Joseph has not called consistently great defense at any point in his career, and this team's offense is not built to close the gap if the defense falls off.

Futures Best Bet: RJ Harvey Rookie of the Year (+2700, FanDuel) and Long-Shot Prop Bets

One piece of the offense I really like is rookie RB RJ Harvey. He was outstanding at UCF and gets to play behind one of the league's premier lines, and Sean Payton has produced great results from versatile RBs in the past.

Rookies of the Year usually get drafted in the first round, but running backs can be an exception to the rule. I like Harvey as an OROY long shot at +2700 (FanDuel), and I'm also playing a couple even longer props in case Harvey explodes onto the scene.

Harvey is 200-to-1 to lead the league in rushing yards through four weeks at DraftKings.

The Broncos play terrible Chargers and Bengals run defenses in Weeks 3 and 4, so that could be when Harvey explodes onto the scene. Harvey is also 200-to-1 to lead the league in rushing touchdowns (ESPN Bet), one of my favorite season leader long shots.

Payton's offenses historically like to run the ball into the end zone, and if Denver does have a big season and scores a bunch of short-field touchdowns with a great defense, Harvey could be the main beneficiary.

18. Atlanta Falcons

Offense: 13 | Defense: 26 | Coaching: 25

10 Words

All-in on Michael Penix, but without offensive line help.

Season Outlook

Atlanta is mostly running it back in Year Two of the Raheem Morris regime, but this time with a full season of Penix.

Penix played only three games at the end of the season but looked outstanding, albeit against pretty weak defenses. He had an immediate connection with Drake London and already looks like one of the better passers in the league when hitting that deep outside shot down the sidelines.

Add in Bijan Robinson and a run game that re-emerged under OC Zac Robinson, and there's a lot of optimism.

Penix is still mostly untested, however, and the offensive line has dropped from strength to weakness after the loss of C Drew Dalman in free agency and RT Kaleb McGary to injury. The Falcons likely won't be able to rely on defense either. They invested heavily in a non-existent pass rush, trading extra capital to use a pair of first-round picks on Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr., but the defense has been subpar at best and the secondary starts two rookies.

Biggest Questions

• How far will the offensive line fall without Dalman and McGary? Both are better run blockers than pass protectors, so that's theoretically good news for Penix. But the run game was the strength of this offense, and Penix will now have a new blindside protector and a new center snapping him the ball, a rare lefty-lefty C-QB snap combo without any preseason action to settle in. Atlanta had a fringe top-five line last season; it might rank bottom 10 now.
• How good will Penix be as a sophomore? He has poor pocket mobility, which is potentially a big problem with the line issues, and he's had accuracy issues both in college and so far in the pros. Penix can hit the big play, but can he move the chains?

Schedule Analysis

The Falcons have the eighth-toughest first-half schedule by DVOA but the second easiest after. Penix didn't play a snap in the preseason behind this new offensive line, and Atlanta has a pivotal Week 1 opener against the Bucs.

If the Falcons can hang around in the wide-open NFC South, they'll bet set up well to pounce late.

The Falcons have 10 games I consider "toss-ups" on the schedule, more than any other team. That makes this a super high-variance team.

Win Total: Under 8.5 (Pass)

I want to believe in the Falcons offense, but it's tough to invest early with the tough starting schedule and the downgrade at offensive line. I'll keep an eye on Penix and look to invest later, especially since over 8.5 may well win this division anyway.

The Falcons have gone under the number in six of the last seven seasons.

Futures Best Bet: OC Zac Robinson to win Assistant Coach of the Year (+6000, FanDuel)

Assistant Coach of the Year is not a new award, but this is the first year we've been able to bet on it before the start of the season.

The award has existed for just over a decade and typically goes to a coordinator in his first or second season on a winning team leading a unit that's much better than the other side of the ball.

Robinson is a bullseye for that description. Robinson quietly had a great first season of results with Atlanta, considering what he was working with at QB, and he could be one of those buzz-worthy next-Ben-Johnson-type names if Penix plays well and the Falcons take a leap.

If Atlanta leaps from eight to 12-ish wins, it'll be because of the offense. This is a great way to invest in Atlanta upside.

17. Los Angeles Chargers

Offense: 18 | Defense: 23 | Coaching: 9

10 Words

5-12 to 11-6; the next jump is harder.

Season Outlook

Jim Harbaugh did what Jim Harbaugh does. He joined the Chargers and made them relevant overnight with an immediate 11-win season and leap into the playoffs. Justin Herbert played his best season as a pro, but the real surprise came from Jesse Minter's defense.

The Chargers offense was only slightly improved last season.

The run game was better under offensive coordinator Greg Roman but still below average, so the team used a first-round pick on RB Omarion Hampton in hopes of finding answers. This is no longer the worst collection of skill players in the league after Ladd McConkey's breakout rookie season, but this still isn't a world-beating attack, especially after losing stud LT Rashawn Slater.

The big leap came on defense, where the Chargers leapt from 26th to ninth in DVOA, with an even bigger leap in pass defense. But that defense now moves on from Joey Bosa, Poona Ford and Asante Samuel Jr., and it wasn't a particularly talented unit to start with. Minter got great results early, but the defense tailed off late and was a frequent no-show against top opponents.

Biggest Questions

• How will the offensive line perform without Slater? In 159 plays without Slater last season, the Chargers ranked bottom six in the NFL in yards per play, Success Rate, and explosives. The Chargers added G Mekhi Becton but will have to more sophomore T Joe Alt to the left side, and the rest of the line remains messy. L.A. dropped from top-10 to bottom-10 on the line after the Slater injury.
• Can the offense hit any sort of upside? For all his talent, Herbert hasn't shown a great ability to elevate the team a ton, and Roman's insistence on an old-school, run-heavy setup holds this offense back and creates a bit of a glass ceiling.

Schedule Analysis

The start and finish of the season are tough, with a soft, gooey middle.

The Chargers play all three division opponents right away: the Chiefs in Brazil, the Raiders on Monday night off international travel and then the Broncos off short rest. Not ideal.

The end of the season is even worse: Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos in Denver.

Last year's team fattened up its record with wins against the league's lesser teams. The Bolts won't get many chances early or late this season.

Win Total: Under 9.5 (Lean)

The Chargers had gone under in four straight seasons before going way over with Harbaugh.

Harbaugh has never gone under .500 in five seasons as a head coach, with one 8-8 season and four others with at least 11 wins.

Teams since 2006 that improve by six or more wins in one season drop by an average of 2.7 wins the following season.

Futures Best Bet: Ladd McConkey receiving yards escalator

McConkey was L.A.'s big breakout performer on offense with 82 catches for 1,149 yards and seven TDs. He was even better in the back half of the year once he established rapport with Herbert, with at least 83 yards in all but one of his final seven games and a pace for 109 receptions and 1,596 yards in that stretch.

Keenan Allen returns to L.A., but McConkey is firmly established as Herbert's go-to guy. He should fly past his posted receiving yards total of just 950.5 yards (-130, ESPN Bet), so let's take the escalator, too.

McConkey has an excellent shot at 1,250 yards (+250) and could even get to 1,500 yards (+700) if the Chargers lean pass-heavier this season.

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Offense: 15 | Defense: 20 | Coaching: 27

10 Words

Tampa Bay is running it back, but injuries abound early.

Season Outlook

The Bucs are four-time defending NFC South champions — they are running back the roster to a shocking degree, perhaps more than any other team.

Tampa Bay lost precious little on the field, added WR Emeka Egbuka in the first round, and took a shot at rehabbing Haason Reddick. The Bucs did lose another offensive coordinator with Liam Coen giving way to Josh Grizzard, but the rest looks similar.

At least, it's supposed to.

Injuries have hit what was an awesome Bucs offense pretty hard. Chris Godwin isn't back yet from last year's injury and Jalen McMillan is out as well, leaving the receiver room pretty thin. More importantly, stud LT Tristan Wirfs is injured without a timetable for return, and his absence could have a cascade effect on the entire offense.

That the defense is mostly running it back is a bit less encouraging. Defense is Todd Bowles' specialty, but his unit has faded to league average the last couple years and relies too heavily on the blitz at times to cover for a relative paucity of talent overall.

The Bucs have also finished bottom seven in special teams in seven of the past eight seasons, a persistent weakness under Bowles.

Biggest Questions

• How far do the injuries drop the Bucs, and for how long? Tampa Bay was a chic Super Bowl pick earlier this offseason before all the injury issues. I had the Bucs top seven among offensive lines and skill positions; now, they're below average at both for the time being, and that could be compounded if it also results in a worse version of Baker Mayfield in a worse offense missing Coen.
• How much will Coen's absence alone hurt this offense? Josh Grizzard is mostly an unknown at OC, though he had great success calling third downs last season. Dave Canales called the plays two years ago before leaving for a head coaching job, but this offense was only 20th in DVOA under Canales. It leapt to seventh with Coen. Will it fall back to 20th without him, or further with all the injuries?

Schedule Analysis

It could get dicey early for the Bucs.

Week 1 against the Falcons looms large, but it gets even tougher after that with the Texans, Eagles, Seahawks, 49ers and Lions all in the first seven games, most — or all — of which will come with Wirfs and Godwin sidelined.

There's a very realistic outcome where this team is 2-5 early, but even that version can probably still compete in the bad NFC South if it gets healthy.

Win Total: Under 9.5 (BET)

There's no way I'm not betting this under with that tough opening stretch and the injuries.

We've seen entire seasons waylaid in the past by the loss of a star tackle like Trent Williams or Terron Armstead. I'm worried an extended Wirfs absence could send Mayfield and this offense to a much darker place than anyone realizes.

If the Bucs get healthy and make a push with four late games against the Panthers and Saints, we should have enough value on our under ticket to play the other side and maybe even snag a juicy middle.

Futures Best Bet: Bucs Mineshaft — Under 9.5, Under 7.5 (+250, DraftKings), Last Winless Team (+5000 ESPN Bet)

Week 1 against the Falcons is a pretty huge game considering the landscape of the NFC South. Maybe the Bucs win, get Wirfs healthy soon after, and start on their way to fifth consecutive division title.

Lose that one, though, and there's a world where this team struggles mightily early or even wakes up in New Orleans on October 26 at 0-7, staring at a lost season. At that point, there could be questions about the future for Bowles, Mayfield and the entire direction of the team.

15. Cincinnati Bengals

Offense: 9 | Defense: 28 | Coaching: 28

10 Words

Cincinnati's offense attempts to shootout its way to wins again.

Season Outlook

We pretty much know what we're getting from the Bengals at this point — plenty of fireworks from Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the passing game, and not much else from any other part of the team.

Cincinnati's offense has yet to be truly elite under Zac Taylor. It has no top-three DVOA finishes and, even more surprisingly, only two top 10s with Burrow. The change to OC Dan Pitcher helped last season, as did the transition to RB Chase Brown, but there's only so much an offense can do when the line is this bad, ranked third worst in the league.

The Bengals offense will be great but may not be elite, and that's probably not enough to make up for what looks like a bottom-of-the-barrel defense and coaching staff.

Trey Hendrickson is finally signed, but he's the only real plus player on defense. Cincinnati will need to win shootouts every week again, and that's great for viewers and fantasy football players, but not so much for winning playoff games.

Biggest Questions

• What can new DC Al Golden bring to the defense? Golden was the architect of an elite Notre Dame defense, and we've seen the college-to-pro pipeline flourish in recent years. Cincinnati's offense is so good that the defense even finishing something like 21st instead of 29th would be quite meaningful.
• Will Cincinnati dig itself yet another September hole? The Bengals started 0-3, 1-3 and 0-2 the last three seasons, and they missed the playoffs by a game in each of the last two. It's great to be the proverbial team nobody wants to play in December, but it's even better to play actual football in January.

Schedule Analysis

The offensive line will be tested early.

Cleveland-Jacksonville looks tasty enough to start the season, but that's a lot of pass rush right out of the gates, and that continues through seven games. Burrow notably played this preseason for the first time in years, presumably an attempt to make sure this team doesn't dig itself another early hole.

The Bengals have a brutal Ravens-Bills-Ravens stretch looming at the start of December. That's why the early start matters, and that could be where any Burrow MVP hopes go to die.

Win Total: Under 9.5 (Pass)

The Bengals are at nine, nine and 10 wins in three of the last four seasons, right at this number. Cincinnati has gone under its total in seven of the last nine seasons.

If you do lean under or want an annual ticket to miss the playoffs, you may actually want to wait until after those first two games against the Browns and Jaguars unless you think Cincinnati really loses one of them.

Futures Best Bet: Joe Burrow to break the all-time passing yards record (+2200, DraftKings)

Is there a passing triple crown?

Burrow led the league last season in completions, attempts and passing yards (with 4,918). He cranked the pace up even further from Week 10 forward, on pace for almost 5,700 yards during that stretch.

The all-time record for yards in a season is 5,477. As bad as this defense is, and as much as Burrow will have to keep passing all season, that record could be in actual jeopardy — regardless of whether Burrow contends for MVP or enough wins to make the playoffs.

14. Los Angeles Rams

Offense: 10 | Defense: 19 | Coaching: 4

10 Words

QB and LT injuries could derail things before they start.

Season Outlook

The Rams are one of the more difficult teams to predict in 2025 because of injury unknowns to two of their most important players.

Matthew Stafford didn't play or even practice much in the preseason, and at age 37, he's a retirement risk at any point if injuries persist. The Rams also remain without LT Alaric Johnson indefinitely with blood clots for a second time in his legs.

There's a perception that this offense when healthy is the best in the league. But even outside of one bad injury-riddled 2022, the Rams offense has finished the last five seasons ranked 10th, 7th, 8th, and 10th in DVOA. Those are all very good metrics, but they're not great. For as good as Sean McVay's reputation is, the offense has only played elite ball for brief stretches but not for entire seasons.

That's what makes the Stafford and Jackson injuries so troubling; they add even more variability into an offense that's already much more inconsistent than it's given credit for. The defense is rising with so much young talent up front, but this team goes as its offense goes.

Biggest Questions

• How much does Davante Adams have in the tank, and can he find quick rapport with Stafford? Adams replaces the departed Cooper Kupp, and Adams could be a deadly WR2 with as good as Puka Nacua has become.
• How good can this defensive front be? The Rams added steady DT Poona Ford to an already loaded front seven featuring Jared Verse, Byron Young, Brandon Fiske and Kobie Turner. The linebackers and corners are subpar, but Chris Shula's defense can be a nightmare matchup for some opponents in the trenches.

Schedule Analysis

If the Rams aren't ready early because of the injuries, they could be in trouble.

The Rams play against the Texans, Eagles, 49ers and Ravens in the first six weeks alone, so a poor start could leave the team buried in a hurry, even if they make another second-half push like last season.

Win Total: Under 9.5 (Pass)

It has to be under or nothing with the two key injuries, until proven otherwise.

The Rams overachieved with 10 wins last season, playing more like an eight-win team in some metrics.

The defense is still below average, and the special teams are perennially overlooked under McVay. If Stafford and the offense aren't humming, it's a very mediocre team.

Futures Best Bet: Rams to miss the playoffs (+125, Caesars) | Last in the division (+370, DraftKings)

The Rams were my top fade last season and I felt great when Los Angeles headed into its bye at 1-4, but the team got healthier and finished 9-3 down the stretch, including a perfect 6-0 in one-score games. It felt like a good read that went sideways, and I am ready to get hurt again.

The single-game upside of the Rams remains immense — there's Super Bowl talent if this roster gets healthy and hot for the right month. But there are more long-tail down outcomes with the injuries and holes on the roster, and the NFC West is loaded with all four teams seriously expecting a playoff push.

Remember that tough opening schedule and these early injuries. Bet the Rams to miss the playoffs at plus odds now and there's a good chance that ticket becomes plus odds to make in a month, giving us options.

Last in the division is a possibility even at 9-8 in the NFC West.

13. Detroit Lions

Offense: 11 | Defense: 15 | Coaching: 23

10 Words

What happens after 15 wins and a huge brain drain?

Season Outlook

The Lions are coming off a dream season.

It doesn't feel that way because of how things ended against Washington, and because of the absolute barrage of defensive injuries late, but last season was as much the Year of the Lion as it was anything else. The offense had unprecedented health, Ben Johnson had Jared Goff and co. humming, the defense took a huge leap under Aaron Glenn, and Detroit was as good as any team in the league.

It's really hard to replicate a season like that, especially after losing as much as the Lions have. Both Johnson and Glenn left for head coaching jobs, and they took a bunch of assistant coaches with them, leaving head coach Dan Campbell with complete unknown coordinators in John Morton and Kelvin Sheppard.

The Lions also lost key offensive linemen Frank Ragnow and Kevin Zeitler, along with defensive linemen Levi Onwuzurike and (for now) Alim McNeill. That's quite literally a massive amount of talent lost in the trenches, exactly where this team has been built to bite kneecaps and dominate games.

Detroit replaced Carlton Davis with D.J. Reed, but otherwise its only real additions will have to come via the draft and a return to health for DPOY candidate Aidan Hutchinson. It's a long road back to 15 wins, and Campbell and this roster lost a lot of their core identity.

Biggest Questions

• How much of a downgrade will the offensive line face? Detroit entered last season as the top line in the league, but the splits with and without Ragnow are eyebrow-raising. The entire interior of the line will look different, and Ben Johnson's system did a lot to make the line look good. If the line takes a significant step back, what does that mean for the run game, and for Jared Goff's confidence?
• How much of last year's defensive leap is sustainable with the injuries on the line and the loss of Glenn and some of his staff? Can Hutchinson continue his torrid pace early last season coming off of injury himself, and not against all backup tackles? Can the run defense hold up until McNeill is back, and was the passing defense leap sustainable?

Schedule Analysis

With great power, comes great responsibility. The Lions were the NFC 1-seed, and the 1-seed gets the top schedule.

Detroit plays 11 of its 17 games against playoff teams from last year, and that doesn't even include Cincinnati, Dallas or two against Chicago. Detroit's variable games come against the Bucs, Rams and Chiefs, and those Tampa and L.A. games come late in the year once both teams should be healthier.

The Lions really only have two games all season where they'll be clear favorites, one on short rest.

Win Total: Under 10.5 (BET)

The Lions have gone over this number only three times as a franchise since 1991. Detroit fits any number of other troubling trends, too.

Thirty-eight teams over the last 31 years won at least 13 games without winning the Super Bowl. Four of those teams equaled their record; the other 34 dropped by 3.6 wins.

The Lions also fit an under trend with a new offensive coordinator under the same head coach, and they nearly triggered the trend in Denver's section on teams with 9+ double-digit wins dropping by 3.9 wins the following season.

Futures Best Bet: Lions to miss the playoffs (+165, Caesars) | Last in the division (+450, DraftKings)

It sounds crazy, but I have the Lions projected last in the NFC North.

Detroit actually ranks top 15 both offensively and defensively, so it's not even that the Lions will be bad, but all three other teams in the division rank among my top 10 offenses and defenses.

The entire identity of this team has been built upon winning in the trenches and with edges in the coaching staff. The drain at exactly those strengths will have a ripple effect on the entire roster, and with a brutal schedule and early injuries in a tough division, that could spell much more trouble than anyone is letting on with this team.

12. Seattle Seahawks

Offense: 27 | Defense: 6 | Coaching: 10

10 Words

Mike Macdonald's defense looks nasty; can Kubiak's offense keep up?

Season Outlook

Seattle's story starts on defense, where Mike Macdonald immediately made his mark. This unit jumped from bottom five to top 10 in DVOA last season and was still getting better when the season ended. The unit is led by Leonard Williams up the middle and Devon Witherspoon at corner.

This is a similar path for Macdonald to his defense in Baltimore. Those Ravens leapt from bottom five to top seven in Year 2, and then ascended to No. 1 in his third and final season. Could this defense take another leap forward?

The offense looks set to take a step back with serious downgrades at quarterback and receiver.

It remains to be seen whether Sam Darnold and Cooper Kupp are replacements or just stopgap solutions in a transition year. Instead, Seattle appears to be pivoting to a run-first scheme under new OC Klint Kubiak, hoping to address the longtime offensive line woes and keeping four tight ends and two fullbacks on the roster.

Biggest Questions

• What will this offense look like under Kubiak, and how much can he elevate this beleaguered offensive line? Seattle's line was widely panned as a consensus bottom-four unit this summer, but rookie Grey Zabel looks great and the young tackles look healthy. If Kubiak's scheme can offset the line struggles, Seattle could have a newfound run game and make life easier on the QB.
• What version of Darnold do we get? Even in a career year, Darnold's underlying metrics showed a flawed quarterback with mistake-filled play who melted under pressure. If Kubiak can't help fix the O-line, Darnold could be a sitting duck and a huge regression candidate.

Schedule Analysis

The Seahawks start and end the season with the 49ers, an immediate test and opportunity for this Kubiak rushing offense against one of the league's worst run defenses a year ago.

Seattle has nine games I consider "toss-ups" on the schedule, second most in the NFL. Unpredictable offense plus great defense makes the Seahawks unpredictable — they can hang in any game but lose most of them, too.

Win Total: Over 8.5 (Lean)

Seattle has only gone under in four of its last 15 seasons, but this is a volatile team with high-variance outcomes in either direction.

Since 2000, 25 teams have finished with 10+ wins but at least four double-digit losses; 14 of those teams (56%) dropped by at least three wins the following season, an average drop of over five wins.

Seattle had four double-digit losses and was a point away from five. The Seahawks also fit a worrying trend for teams with returning head coaches but new offensive coordinators going under.

Futures Best Bet: Stage of Elimination: Lose in Wild Card Round (+380, FanDuel)

Could these Seahawks make the playoffs?

Seattle is +170 to make the postseason, an implied 37%. That feels about right in a tough division — and conference — with a sick defense but an unreliable offense.

But what if they make it? History is not kind on defense-first teams with an unreliable offense, and Sam Darnold has not been great in big moments in his career. Seattle is likely a wild-card team playing on the road, and even a home game would be a tough ask.

You can bet "Stage of Elimination" at FanDuel for the Seahawks to make the playoffs but lose immediately in the opening round at +380. At an implied 21%, Seattle has to lose that first playoff game 56% of the time for that ticket to be valuable.

Think of it this way: If Seattle does sneak into the playoffs, you get a +380 moneyline ticket betting against Sam Darnold.

11. Arizona Cardinals

Offense: 12 | Defense: 21 | Coaching: 19

10 Words

Arizona's upward trajectory has been impressive. What's the next step?

Season Outlook

The Cardinals have been on a clear upward trajectory over the last few seasons under head coach Jonathan Gannon.

The team leapt from 30th to 21st in Offensive DVOA in 2023 under OC Drew Petzing, then jumped again to 11th last fall. The defense bottomed out to dead last in 2023 but leapt all the way to 14th under DC Nick Rallis.

It's been a steady upward climb out of the cellar for this team that lost nothing super notable for a second straight season while again adding a lot to its roster. This year it's defensive names — veteran linemen Calais Campbell and Dalvin Tomlinson, marquee pass rusher Josh Sweat, and top rookies Walter Nolen and Will Johnson. Arizona added five or six starters to an already league-average defense on its way up.

Can the offense continue its ascent?

Marvin Harrison Jr. had an up-and-down rookie season but is a nice weapon next to Trey McBride, and the Cardinals have a surprisingly tough rushing attack under Petzing, though they could rue the loss of run coordinator Klayton Adams.

Everything hinges on Kyler Murray staying healthy and playing consistent, elevated football from week to week.

Biggest Questions

• Rallis' defense has done all sorts of funky stuff the last few years to offset a dearth of talent. That's all cute, elevating a league-worst defense into something playable, but adding more talent doesn't necessarily continue the ascent. How will Rallis deploy his new defensive talent, and what will this unit look like when teams know what's coming?
• The Cardinals have a surprising level of competence up and down the roster, with very few weaknesses. But do they have any strengths? This team looks around league average on offense, defense, special teams, quarterback, skill position and coaching. Depth and competence are great, but what will this team hang its hat on? The easiest answer would be Kyler if he can get there.

Schedule Analysis

If the Cardinals are going to be good, we should know immediately.

Arizona starts the season against the Saints and Panthers and plays the easiest schedule by DVOA over the first half of the season. The Cardinals luck into eight games against both the NFC South and AFC South, with most of those games early.

If you want Arizona stock, you have to buy in now.

Win Total: Over 8.5 (Lean)

Buy the over now with the soft early schedule: Saints, Panthers, Titans and Colts in the first six.

If Arizona jumps out to a 4-2 or 5-1 start, you'll have options to hedge out this ticket later or let it ride if you believe.

Futures Best Bet: Make Playoffs (+140, Caesars)

Same logic as the win total.

Arizona brings continuity and talent to a soft early schedule, and that should get them out of the gates quickly. That should push these odds to a minus number soon enough, and from there, you can choose to let your ticket ride or hedge out on the other side for guaranteed profit.

I've got Arizona at 9.5 projected wins, the last team in after a tight NFC playoff race.

10. New England Patriots

Offense: 23 | Defense: 10 | Coaching: 24

10 Words

Patriots will be greatly improved — the question is how much?

Season Outlook

Few teams are set up for more obvious improvement than the Patriots, and it's all about raising the floor.

Last year's coaching staff led by Jerod Mayo failed to transition competently out of the Bill Belichick era. Enter Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels as the new adults in the room, restoring order and bringing a level of seriousness back to this franchise. The Pats also spent huge in free agency, as much as any team.

Stefon Diggs was the big offensive addition along with Morgan Moses and Garrett Bradbury on the line. The defense adds Milton Williams, Carlton Davis, Robert Spillane and Harold Landry.

The Patriots focused on offense in the draft, adding what looks like four potential starters in RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Kyle Williams and O-linemen Will Campbell and Jared Wilson. Add in draft investments on special teams, plus the healthy return of Christian Barmore, and the Patriots might have upgraded 14 starter positions.

That's a huge overhaul, and that's even before accounting for internal improvement for sophomore Drake Maye, who has the potential to finish the season as a top-10 quarterback, and a potential bounce-back season for what had been one of the league's top defenses before cratering last season.

New England is on the rise, reflected in a four-win team with an 8.5 win total.

The question now is how far and how fast?

Biggest Questions

• Improved does not necessarily mean good. Is Diggs healthy, and is he enough to elevate a lackluster group of skill players offensively? Is it actually good to start four new offensive linemen, two rookies and two castoffs their old teams didn't want? It's meaningful replacing bad players with competent starters, but that can only get you so far.
• How will Maye develop under McDaniels? Maye has all the tools and showed great pocket presence and scrambling ability in a terrible situation last fall.  What's his next step in a more positive environment?
• How will unknown DC Terrell Williams put all the pieces together? By talent alone, this defense has a serious argument as a top-five unit, but it's all new and the team just moved on from star S Jabril Peppers on the eve of the season. Can everything come together for a top-10 defense?

Schedule Analysis

The Patriots have a huge opportunity for a great start right way.

New England plays the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers and Panthers in September. Those are all winnable games if this squad is truly improved. Then it's an early test in Buffalo before more winnable games against the Saints, Titans and Browns.

The schedule gets much tougher toward the finish line with the Bengals, Bills and Ravens waiting after Thanksgiving (two of them on the road), but New England is set up to be one of the shock early teams of the 2025 aseason.

Win Total: Over 8.5 (BET)

The Patriots are 4-1 to the under since Tom Brady left, playing at a 6.7 win pace (33-51) after not going under in any of their last 10 years with Brady.

Can Vrabel right the ship? He went over in each of his first four seasons with Tennessee with nine, nine, 11 and 12 wins.

This is a shockingly high win total for a team that won four games last season, but the level of talent overhaul on the roster is just as shocking.

New England has a soft schedule early and a chance to start out with a bang in a very gettable conference. Even if you get cold feet, you should have a path to get out of this ticket later.

Futures Best Bet: 4 Patriots wins in September (+800, ESPN Bet)

Could the Patriots start out 4-0? They have a real chance against the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers and Panthers, and I rate them the better team in all four games.

It won't be easy gelling immediately with so many new faces and an entirely new coaching staff, but there's a chance for this team to skyrocket out of the starting block if everything clicks right away.

If you think New England is at least 60% to win each of those games, the odds for this bet are in our favor.

You can find this one at ESPN Bet under "Season Wins, Exact Wins in September." You can also play a 5-0 start at DraftKings at a slightly better number, but now you're including that Week 5 road trip to Buffalo, so this is clearly the better play if available.

If you're in on New England, you should also grab a ticket for the Patriots to make the playoffs (+154, BetMGM). You can also find other ways I'm investing in New England in the Tennessee and Buffalo best bets.

9. Chicago Bears

Offense: 8 | Defense: 7 | Coaching: 11

10 Words

A complete overhaul means hope for Chicago — and I believe.

Season Outlook

For a while, it looked like the Bears might be one of the stories of the 2024 season. Chicago was one play away from a shocking 5-2 start before allowing a Hail Mary to Washington — the first of 10 consecutive losses that buried this team at 5-12. That led to a complete overhaul of the coaching staff and trenches.

Out are Matt Eberflus, Shane Waldron, Thomas Brown and whatever other names made up the worst coaching effort in the league last season. Eberflus was replaced by the guy everyone's been waiting years to see as a head coach in Ben Johnson. Johnson's offensive prowess is proven. Detroit's Offensive DVOA leapt from 29th the year before he took over to top five in all three years since.

But Johnson doesn't come alone. He brings a slew of talented young assistants and one proven older one in DC Dennis Allen, who is a long-time great playcaller whose defenses finished in the top quarter of the league by DVOA in six straight seasons before New Orleans' roster aged and fell off the last two years.

Johnson and Allen have won by winning in the trenches, and the moves Chicago made over the offseason reflected that.

The Bears completely remade the interior of their offensive line, bringing in two top-five guys at their positions in G Joe Thuney and C Drew Dalman, along with veteran Jonah Jackson. Chicago also added veteran Grady Jackson and rookie Shemar Turner to its defensive line.

What had been huge weaknesses in the trenches and at coaching are suddenly significant strengths. Now what can those changes do to elevate sophomore QB Caleb Williams, young weapons like Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland, and the rest of this roster?

Biggest Questions

• How will Johnson elevate this offense, and how quickly will he find answers? It's no coincidence Detroit's offensive line played so well under Johnson, nor that Jared Goff turned into a perennial MVP candidate. Williams is more gifted than Goff but also is more prone to mistakes; can Johnson tame Williams but keep the upside? Can he help the offensive line play like a top-five unit and build a run game out of a stable of overlooked running backs?
• Is Williams ready to make a leap? Williams holds the ball too long and ranked bottom five in EPA per play and Success Rate as a rookie, but his five wins were just one short of the best win total by any rookie No. 1 pick QB over the past decade. Those eight QBs averaged just 3.4 wins as rookies but leapt by 144% to 8.3 wins as sophomores, with five of the seven jumping to at least .500 ball. Is Williams the next one to make the leap?
• Nobody doubts Chicago will improve. The question is how much, and how fast? Historically, both Johnson and Allen have found results quickly, but the Bears have a lot of history of offensive mediocrity and overall disappointment to shake. Will it take time for Johnson to learn the ropes as head coach and build a winning culture like his mentor Dan Campbell did in Detroit?

Schedule Analysis

This new staff has its work cut out for them with an absolutely loaded schedule.

The schedule is tough throughout but picks up even more in the back half with the Ravens, Eagles and 49ers waiting late between a bunch of tough division games.

Could the Bears have a sneaky winnable schedule early, though?

The Vikings, Lions and Cowboys to open the season looks tough, but all three teams are dealing with significant injuries and overhauling their offensive lines, and J.J. McCarthy makes his NFL debut on the road in Chicago on Monday night. Sometimes it's not just who you play, but when you play them.

Win Total: Over 8.5 (Lean)

The Bears have only gone over their win total once in the last 12 seasons, an awful 10-1-1 to the under during that span, and there's already a lot of improvement baked into this number in perhaps the league's most stacked division.

If Chicago is going to hit this over, the Bears almost certainly need to get things moving early. The late schedule is difficult, so a slow start could mean it's just a year early for this squad.

Futures Best Bet: Bears to win NFC North (+625, BetMGM)

Bears Island, baby!!

The Micah Parsons trade is only buying us even more value.

Fine, OK, the best team in the division adding the best defender in football is not exactly great news for our pick as this year's worst-to-first division winner — you can read my full case here — but we're not moving off Bears Island that easily. I still project Chicago less than one win off the Packers' pace and give this team as good a chance as any in the division.

If you can't quite get past the Packers, Chicago is +195 to make the playoffs (Caesars). That ticket has value.

8. Minnesota Vikings

Offense: 7 | Defense: 3 | Coaching: 7

10 Words

A Super Bowl-worthy roster starts an unproven debut quarterback.

Season Outlook

On the surface, the Vikings look like an obvious regression candidate. Minnesota won 14 games but had the profile of an 11-win team, thanks in part to lucking into an 8-1 record in one-score games again under head coach Kevin O'Connell. All the more with Sam Darnold gone after a great season and J.J. McCarthy entering his debut season.

It's easy to forget, though, that McCarthy was the presumed starter last year, which means Minnesota went 14-3 with a backup journeyman who had never been good at any stop, all thanks to an awesome defense and a great offensive ecosystem, both of which are still there.

It's genuinely difficult to imagine a much better situation for McCarthy to step into.

Minnesota restocked its interior line at all three spots, adding veteran teammates C Ryan Kelly and G Will Fries along with first-round G Donovan Jackson. That should power a run game buoyed by free agent Jordan Mason, and now Adam Thielen returns to partner with Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and, of course, Justin Jefferson.

Brian Flores' defense remains in attack mode at all times and it, too, added names, with veteran tackles Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen giving this team the makings of the best defensive front in the league when healthy.

The secondary still has question marks, and it's one of the league's oldest defenses that stayed mostly healthy last season, so that's something to keep an eye on.

Biggest Questions

• For all the love KOC and this offense get, the unit has finished just 15th, 23rd and 20th in DVOA over the last three years. But has it been operating at its floor? Over half those games across three seasons were started by a backup QB, so how good does McCarthy really have to be to lead a league-average offense? What if he's better than that baseline?
• Minnesota invested heavily in the trenches. How much and how quickly will it pay off? The offensive line has the talent to be the best in the league once LT Christian Darrisaw is fully healthy, and the defense gets a healthy Dallas Turner back at edge. It's not out of the question that this team could be best in the league in the trenches both ways.

Schedule Analysis

The Vikings face the Bears, Falcons and Bengals over the first three weeks before a two-week London visit with games against the Steelers and Browns.

The schedule gets really tough from there — the tough division doesn't help — so it's important Minnesota get off to a quick start, but it won't be easy with McCarthy making his first starts behind that totally revamped line without the suspended Addison.

Win Total: Over 9.5 (Pass)

It's unlikely that Minnesota wins 14 games again this season, but how far could the Vikings fall?

Since 2006, teams that won at least six games more than the previous season only improved again the following year in three of 35 instances, with an average drop of 2.7 wins. Still, even that drop would mean 11 wins and an over.

Minnesota's floor may be higher than it seems with great skill-position players, elite trench play, terrific coaching and awesome defense. McCarthy is the big unknown, but that might mean it's better investing in long-tail outcomes than medians.

Futures Best Bet: J.J. McCarthy passing TDs escalator

If McCarthy is this team's great unknown, then the best way to bet on Minnesota may be to invest directly in him. Minnesota has finished top six in the NFL in both passing yards and TDs in all three KOC years, even with over half of those games started by a backup QB.

McCarthy is plus money to go over 24.5 passing TDs (+105, ESPN Bet) and even longer to hit 30 (+225) — the Vikings have thrown for 30+ scores in all three O'Connell seasons.

Take the escalator to the top with a sprinkle on 35+ TDs at +550.

7. Buffalo Bills

Offense: 2 | Defense: 11 | Coaching: 5

10 Words

Nobody circles the wagons like Buffalo — is this the year?

Season Outlook

According to FTN, the Bills just completed the greatest five-year stretch in NFL history by any team that failed to reach the Super Bowl.

Is that a good stat or a bad one? You can decide for yourself, but it shows the level of ball this team has been playing for years — thanks mostly to Josh Allen and Sean McDermott.

Allen's presence virtually guarantees this team an elite offense — top three by DVOA each of the past three seasons. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady has added a power run element that gives the team more versatility and a higher floor, cutting down on the reliance on Allen playing like Superman and allowing him to cut his mistakes dramatically.

The defense continues to patch things together with veterans and duct tape each season but always seems to find a way.

Joey Bosa is in for Von Miller, and the Bills' pass defense will hope to get healthier seasons from LBs Matt Milano and and Terrel Bernard and CB Taron Johnson. McDermott's defense has faltered against elite quarterbacks — often at the worst moment, in the playoffs — but his defense has finished top 12 in DVOA seven consecutive seasons.

Biggest Questions

• Do the Bills have enough weapons around Allen on offense … and does it even matter? Josh Palmer is the only meaningful addition, but the team moved on from Amari Cooper and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and security blanket WR Khalil Shakir is hurt heading into the season. Can Dalton Kincaid finally break out and give this team some versatility at tight end?
• What can Chris Tabor do for the Bills? Buffalo finished bottom five in Special Teams DVOA last season but changed punters and added Tabor, a special teams guru whose units finished top quarter of the league in each of the last three seasons in Carolina. That might feel like a small swing, but a swing like that could be everything for a team that's been agonizingly close year after year.

Schedule Analysis

The schedule makers did Buffalo no favors with an opening Sunday Night Football game against the Ravens — but then it's six consecutive games as clear, easy favorites before the annual Chiefs game.

If Buffalo does win in Week 1, it could be unbeaten for awhile, though the schedule gets much tougher as things hit the holidays.

Win Total: Under 12.5 (Lean)

Over the last 31 years, 38 NFL teams won at least 38 games but didn't reach the Super Bowl. Not one of them improved the following season. Four equaled their record, and the other 34 dropped by an average of 3.6 wins. That would put Buffalo around nine or 10 wins.

The Bills led the league with six 20-point wins last season. Only seven of 49 teams with five such wins this century improved the following season; the other 42 averaged a 3.4-win decline. Both trends would put Buffalo around nine or 10 wins.

There are more paths down than up, but the Bills have gone over the number in seven of eight seasons and have a super soft opening schedule. That means now would be the time to buy low on Bills stock; the time for unders is midseason before that Chiefs game.

Futures Best Bet: Bills and Patriots to finish top 2 in AFC East (-105, DraftKings)

Buffalo is the one AFC division favorite I expect to be in a dogfight, with the Patriots projected within a win of the Bills at the top. Both teams are over two games clear of the Dolphins and Jets.

You can also play exact 1-2 outcomes for divisions. If you like the Patriots to push but not pass the Bills, that might be your play. I'll go the other way and play Patriots 1, Bills 2 at +750 (Caesars).

I have the Bills winning the division under half the time, with this exact 1-2 outcome over 25% of the time with the Patriots stealing a shock division title.

6. Houston Texans

Offense: 20 | Defense: 1 | Coaching: 8

10 Words

Last year everyone loved the Texans. Hey, where'd everybody go?!

Season Outlook

Two years ago, nobody but us believed in Texans Island — they won 10 games, the division and even won a playoff game.

Last year, the entire world was in on the Texans — they won 10 games, the division and even won a playoff game.

Expectations can be a real dick. Just one year ago, this was the young team on the rise, DeMeco Ryans was the hot young coach, C.J. Stroud was in for a breakout sophomore season and a dark horse MVP candidate — the Texans were expected to make noise in the AFC.

Why should our expectations be anything other than that going forward?

Houston's offense was terribly disappointing. The offensive line was a disaster and looks like the league's worst heading into the new season after moving on from T Laremy Tunsil and G Shaq Mason. The Texans did reload at RB and WR though. The big question is how this offense will play under new OC Nick Caley, a relative unknown who will call plays for the first time after Houston moved on from Bobby Slowik.

There are few questions about the defense, which might be the best in the NFL with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter rushing the passer and Derek Stingley Jr. leading one of the league's top secondaries.

The defense has also played well against top competition, and Frank Ross's special teams have ranked top quarter of the league in three straight years and add another hidden advantage.

Biggest Questions

• Last fall, Houston stock sold at an all-time high. Why does it feel like most of the same shares are now going for dirt cheap? Last season meant buying in at peak belief in Stroud and this offense; now it feels like buying in at the cellar, with only upside to come. It's rare for a team to rank near the top of the league in both defense and special teams but subpar offensively. Either the D/ST pull the offense up, or the offense drags everything else down. Which will it be for Houston?
• What will Caley's offense look like? Will Stroud play more decisive football with more on his plate, or will he continue to regress? Can this offensive line find any answers? Even 24th best would be a dramatic improvement. Will Caley's system help the line, and can it rebuild a completely broken rushing attack that could be without Joe Mixon indefinitely?

Schedule Analysis

This terrible Texans offensive line will be tested early and often.

In the first half of the season, the line goes up against aggressive, attacking defensive fronts (Rams, Bucs, Ravens, Seahawks, 49ers, Broncos). If the line isn't ready, it could be that nothing else matters.

Houston does perhaps luck into playing the Rams and Bucs in the first two weeks. Matthew Stafford hasn't even practiced in preseason, and both teams are missing important names due to injury, notably both blindside-protecting left tackles against this nasty Houston pass rush.

The schedule is mostly softer late, when a majority of division games come, but the Bills and Chiefs still await down the home stretch.

Win Total: Over 9.5 (Lean)

Since 2015, returning head coaches with a new offensive coordinator are an ugly 56-31 to the under (64%), a worrying trend for this year's Texans — along with the Browns, Bucs, Eagles, Lions and Seahawks.

An over is a bet on an unknown in Caley replacing Slowik, who looked like a future head coach last year at this time. But it's also a bet against the rest of the AFC South, which looks mostly terrible.

If you like the Houston over, there are better ways to invest — perhaps think even bigger.

Futures Best Bet: Texans escalator — To win AFC South (+115, FanDuel); To win the Super Bowl (+4000, DraftKings)

This looks like a great opportunity to buy low on Houston.

The defense and special teams provide such a high floor, especially in a division where there's little reason to believe any other team is particularly threatening. That means the offense is not scary so much as unknown upside. Even another subpar offense makes Houston a top-10 team, but a return to good offense could make this a top-three team.

My projections have the Texans over four full wins ahead of anyone else in the AFC South; they're a no-brainer multi-unit division bet at plus odds or anything close, and a great division parlay addition.

The soft division means it's possible for Houston to pile up wins in a hurry. The Texans could end up at the top of the standings (+4500, DraftKings), and a finish ahead of the AFC's big three could make DeMeco Ryans a sneaky Coach of the Year candidate (+6500, DraftKings).

If Houston does get a top-two AFC seed, the Texans may quickly be a home game away from a Super Bowl appearance. This team has championship-level coaching, defense and special teams, all of which have looked good against top competition.

Could they shock the world and win it all? A +4000 title ticket at DraftKings at least gives us hedging options in January if Houston is in contention.

5. Kansas City Chiefs

Offense: 5 | Defense: 13 | Coaching: 3

10 Words

For once, the Chiefs enter with more questions than answers.

Season Outlook

There's so much we already know about the Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes has yet to miss an AFC Championship Game. Andy Reid is a Hall of Famer. Steve Spagnuolo will have the defense ready when it matters. The special teams are always good. Travis Kelce is engaged — and still pretty good, too.

Winning is expensive, though, and the Chiefs continue to slowly lose pieces of their core.

Stud G Joe Thuney is the biggest loss this time around as Kansas City's offensive line starts the year ranked around average instead of atop the league. The defense continues to lose names like S Justin Reid, and Kelce looks older every season. The Chiefs just don't have a way to add much at this stage.

The defense has some questions and looks overreliant on Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie. The offense has not reached its old heights the last couple years but has a steady, high floor as long as Mahomes and Reid are around.

The Chiefs are the Chiefs.

Biggest Questions

• Could No. 32 pick Josh Simmons be one of the steals of the draft? The Chiefs have been searching for answers at tackle for years, but Simmons fell into their laps due to a knee injury and has looked dominant in the preseason. I took a goofy long-shot stab at Simmons winning Offensive Rookie of the Year (+50000, Caesars), but he and LG Kingsley Suamataia are sure to be a big story for the Chiefs all season long — for better or for worse.
• Kansas City's offense has slipped to eighth in DVOA in each of the past two seasons after ranking top three every other Mahomes year. Is that a blip or a pattern? Good is not great. The line is a question mark, and the team lacks great weapons with no standout runner and no lead receiver early with Rashee Rice suspended six games.
• Is Patrick Mahomes regression-proof? This team went 15-2 — 15-1, really — but played more like a 10-win squad. They finished the season just +59 in net differential, with every other 14-win team since 1989 at +100 or better, an average of +190, thanks in part to a ridiculous 11-0 record in one-score games. Mahomes is somehow 43-17 in one-score games. Will he just keep finding a way forever?

Schedule Analysis

The Chiefs get the Eagles and Ravens right away in September, so the unknowns will be tested early.

Kansas City also faces the Lions and Bills in the first half of the season, so the Chiefs have the toughest first-half schedule by DVOA.

That's a tough stretch to miss Rice — as good as he's been when healthy — and it makes it very hard to invest in Kansas City futures right now.

Win Total: Over 11.5 (Lean)

It's not easy climbing the mountain every season. Only eight Super bowl losers ever have made it back the following season, and only the 2018 Patriots since 1993. The Super Bowl loser is 15-6 to the under in the last 21 years.

Still, the Chiefs are 10-2 to the over with Andy Reid, a ridiculous 12.5-win pace, and those two unders were by a half-game.

I can't go under, given all that Mahomes and Reid history and my lack of faith in this division, but I don't need the ticket with that opening schedule.

Futures Best Bet: Chiefs-Texans-Eagles division parlay (+633, FanDuel)

If you want to invest in Chiefs futures right now, it should also be because you're betting against the rest of the division.

I'm down on the Broncos and Chargers, so I still have Kansas City around four wins ahead of the rest of the division. Even if the Chiefs take a slight step back, they can still coast to a division title if the rest of the division takes the same step back.

You can play just Chiefs division at -105 (FanDuel), and though you could wait on that one with the opening schedule, a potential opening Friday night win against the Chargers gets Kansas City off to a quick start.

I like parlaying the Chiefs' division odds with the Texans and Eagles, my two other surest division bets on the board. I have all three teams between 70%-85% to win the division — both a belief in those teams and a lack of belief in their opposition — so I make this parlay close to a coin flip and we get it at +633 (FanDuel) instead.

4. Philadelphia Eagles

Offense: 6 | Defense: 5 | Coaching: 15

10 Words

The champs run it back, but not without some losses.

Season Outlook

The Philadelphia Eagles are defending Super Bowl champions — emphasis on defense.

The defense led the way for the champs, with Vic Fangio's unit taking the league by storm and dismantling all comers along the way.

The offense ran the ball, ran some more, and passed when it had to, and much of what you know about the Eagles is back for more. The skill positions and line look as good as any in the league, and the defense should be great again.

Will it be elite? The team lost a ton of names on that side of the ball. Josh Sweat, Milton Williams, Bryce Huff and Brandon Graham are gone up front; Darius Slay and CJ Gardner-Johnson are key veteran losses in the secondary.

This defense finished bottom quarter of the league in two of the past four seasons. Philadelphia has added a ton of young talent in that span, but names like Zack Baun, Cooper DeJean and Quinyon Mitchell need to prove they can do it again.

Philadelphia's offense is mostly running it back, but with yet another new playcaller after Kellen Moore's departure. New OC Kevin Patullo is an unknown. Will the Eagles remain as run-heavy? That's unlikely, considering a real chunk of Philly's run heaviness was simply protecting second-half leads.

The Eagles took care of everyone in the NFC with ease last season. Now they just have to do it again.

Biggest Questions

• What will Jalen Hurts look like with a Super Bowl MVP trophy? Philadelphia's passing offense ranked just 14th in DVOA last season — it was easily the worst, most inconsistent part of this team, and the Eagles will almost certainly need to pass more this year. What will Hurts look like in Patullo's offense? Could more passing mean a higher ceiling offensively — Philadelphia has finished top quarter of the league by DVOA just once with Hurts — or might it go the other direction?
• How will Philadelphia handle injuries this season? The Eagles had the second fewest adjust games lost to injury on both offense and defense last season, per FTN. This is a top-heavy team, and losing guys like Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown or either of the two star offensive tackles means a big drop-off for any time missed.

Schedule Analysis

The schedule is pretty tough throughout — no surprise when you're the champs.

Philadelphia doesn't even have many surefire wins on the schedule at this point, unless games against teams like the Giants and Raiders count.

Philly's run-heavy offense could leave the door open for more close games against a tough schedule.

Win Total: Under 11.5 (Pass)

The Eagles are 6-1 to the under since 2010 when they start the season with a win total at 10 or higher, though last year was obviously the one over. Philadelphia also fits that trend fading returning head coaches with new offensive coordinators.

The NFC East famously hasn't had a back-to-back division winner since 2003-04. Going over this number would almost certainly mean that.

It would likely also mean contention for a top NFC seed and more, so bettors wanting an over are better off playing Eagles futures.

Futures Best Bet: A.J. Brown upside escalator

I'm expecting a monster season from Brown.

Brown's metrics are consistently as good as any receiver in the league — over 10 yards per target for his career, almost 16 yards a catch — but his production remains somewhat muted with the Eagles running so much.

The Eagles were by far the run-heaviest team in second halves last season but around league-average in the first half. If the Eagles pass more this year — either because of Patullo design or simply by necessity — Brown could see a real uptick in volume. He's shown the ability to put up monster numbers for stretches when he gets it.

Brown had over 1,450 yards two seasons in a row before missing four games last season. I like him to top 1,5000 yards at +700 (BetMGM) and will bet him to lead the league in yards at +2800 (Caesars).

He has a real chance to hit 2,000 yards if the volume and health are there. Brown is also my favorite Offensive Player of the Year bet entering the season at +5500 (Circa).

3. Green Bay Packers

Offense: 3 | Defense: 17>9 | Coaching: 6

(middle rank is both D ranks before/after parsons, i think we can list like that and i'll comment?)

10 Words

Micah Parsons is awesome, but the Packers were already contenders.

Season Outlook

Green Bay didn't make too many splashes this offseason, shuffling the deck at receiver, corner and offensive line, but mostly opting to get healthy and run back a roster that made a great push last fall.

At least, that was the intro before the Packers made the move of the offseason on the eve of the season, trading veteran DT Kenny Clark and two measly picks for the best defender in football.

Micah Parsons changes everything.

His presence will have a cascading effect on the entire defense.

Rashan Gary goes from underachieving lead edge rusher to a terrifying second option. A questionable secondary becomes more palatable when they have to defend a half-second less.

Jeff Hafley's defense already took a huge leap forward last year — first by turnovers alone, then on Success Rate late — and now this looks like a bona fide top-10 unit. The Packers jump from 17th to ninth in my defensive rankings with Parsons.

That doesn't make the Packers Super Bowl contenders though — because they already were one.

Head coach Matt LaFleur has done a brilliant job with this team, and Jordan Love still has top-five talent when things are right.

This offense lost Love for a couple of games last fall, played with him hurt for half the season and still finished fourth in DVOA. Green Bay has so many weapons — add in Matthew Golden at WR now — and so many options on the line.

The Packers offense is an open-ended straight flush draw, with so many outs. And now the defense just traded for a joker. Green Bay can be as good as any team in the NFL.

Biggest Questions

• At what point do all those upside question marks on offense become ellipses or periods instead of possible exclamation marks? Jayden Reed and Christian Watson enter the season hurt. Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks remain inconsistent. Tucker Kraft has flashes but has yet to break out. Rookies Golden and Savion Williams are unproven. The same is true to some extent on the offensive line. Options are great, but answers are even better.
• Can Green Bay's run defense match its improvement from last fall? Hafley is still here, but running game coach Anthony Campanile took a promotion in Jacksonville. Parsons is not a good run stopper, and the Packers are pretty thin at tackle without Clark. Run defense had long been a weakness on this roster before last season. Could it be an Achilles' heel again?
• How good is Love? Can he actually play MVP-level football for an entire season and not just Toyotathon?

Schedule Analysis

How quickly will Parsons take the field with Green Bay? The Packers open against the division champion Lions, then play four days later against Washington.

If Parsons isn't healthy and ready to play, that's a big loss early.

Most of the division games come late in the schedule, and Green Bay's final seven games are all against playoff hopefuls.

Win Total: Over 10.5 (Pass)

This number jumped from 9.5 to 10.5 after the Parsons deal. That's the correct line move — Parsons really is that valuable, as much so as all but maybe 10 or 15 guys in the league, pretty much all of them at quarterback — but it also robbed this number of any real value.

Books also shortened odds on the Packers to win the division (formerly a best bet at +260), win the Super Bowl, across the board really.

Buying Packers stock now is buying at its peak — almost never a good strategy — even if they look as strong as anyone in the NFC now.

Futures Best Bet: Jordan Love passing touchdowns escalator

I'm still buying Love.

I ranked him sixth among all quarterbacks and wouldn't be at all surprised to see him contend for MVP. But again, odds have been nuked everywhere after the Parsons trade, so instead I'll play just the stats.

Green Bay's passing rates plummeted last season by around 10% — the Packers ranked bottom three in pass rate, neutral pass rate and pass rate over expected.

LaFleur adjusted with Love out and playing hurt, but Love was actually up in fantasy points per dropback. The Packers also dropped to 55% of their offensive scores by pass, way down from 75%, 75%, 69% and 76% the four previous years.

Packers QBs under LaFleur have consistently had excellent touchdown numbers. Aaron Rodgers won MVP twice with 75 TDs in two seasons under LaFleur, and Love had 32 his debut season and 25 last year despite playing hurt and missing time.

There's little reason to think he shouldn't fly over 23.5 passing TDs (-120, ESPN Bet), and he should likely hit 30+ as well (+260). Better defense and a better team mean a good shot at 35+ TDs (+650) at the top of the escalator.

And yes, Packers fans — if Love does throw 35 TDs and Green Bay is near the top of the standings, that would put MVP in play. It's a more than reasonable bet if it's still available at +2000 at your book.

2. San Francisco 49ers

Offense: 4 | Defense: 9 | Coaching: 1

10 Words

Healthy 49ers are still as good as any NFC team.

Season Outlook

The 49ers were the league's most injured team in 2024 — they ranked top three in most adjusted injury games lost on both offense and defense, per FTN.

San Francisco lost double-digit games from Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Dre Greenlaw, Javon Hargrave and Talanoa Hufanga; it also lost multiple games from Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Nick Bosa, Charvarius Ward,and others. All together, that list of names missed 83 games last season — San Francisco effectively averaged missing five Pro Bowlers per game.

San Francisco won only six games but had the profile of a nine-win team and still finished top 13 in DVOA on both offense and defense. In a weird way, it may have been Kyle Shanahan's greatest coaching job yet.

Most of the defenders on that list are elsewhere now, but the offense other than Deebo is back and healthy to start the season, and the defensive guys missing barely played last year anyway.

The 49ers offense is a whirring machine under Shanahan, especially with McCaffrey healthy again. The defense has obvious holes at tackle and safety, but this team's biggest addition may be the return of DC Robert Saleh. He's led a top-seven DVOA defensive unit in four of his last five full seasons.

Can Saleh be this team's Vic Fangio and finally get San Francisco over the hump in the Super Bowl?

Biggest Questions

• Just how much regression could this team see? The 49ers weren't just unlucky with injuries last season. They also had the league's toughest schedule; they come into the fall with the softest schedule by DVOA. San Francisco also went 2-6 in one-score games and had repeated red-zone foibles, both areas that tend to regress to the mean.
• Could San Francisco also get a boost in special teams? The 49ers ranked 31st by DVOA last season but got a new punter and long snapper and also brought in ST coach Brant Boyer, whose Jets special teams ranked top four in four different seasons. Special teams has long been an overlooked unit in the Shanahan era. Could it be a hidden edge this season?
• How far can Saleh take this defense? San Francisco has struggled against the run, and the secondary looks beatable. Can he work his magic immediately, or will it take time?
• Are we positive the 49ers will have positive health regression? San Francisco has finished 20th or worse in 11 of the past 12 seasons in adjusted injury games lost (FTN). Is there something in the water? Or maybe the training staff?

Schedule Analysis

The 49ers have a tough one in Seattle to start the season but a very winnable opening stretch otherwise — and it gets even easier late.

San Francisco played the toughest schedule in the league last year by FPI, with 10 games against opponents that won 10 or more games. The 49ers enter this season with the softest schedule in the league, per FPI.

If the 49ers look good early, they have a real chance to be favored in every game this season, with Week 8 in Houston looking like their toughest game. The Texans, however, will be on a short week coming off a Monday Night Football game.

Win Total: Over 10.5 (BET)

I've been in on the 49ers since before the Super Bowl; I'm projecting them over 12 wins, well clear of this number.

Still, this may not be the best way to invest in the 49ers. If San Francisco does go over 10.5 wins, the 49ers should be in the mix for a division title, the 1-seed and another shot at a run in the NFC.

Shanahan has coached in five of the last nine NFC Championships.

Futures Best Bet: Most wins +1300 (DraftKings)

The first bet I made this season was a 49ers Super Bowl ticket (+2000, DraftKings), and I'm betting on them in more ways than that.

I've got tickets on Christian McCaffrey for OPOY (+2200, BetRivers), Trent Williams for Protector of the Year (+1100, Caesars) and even a nibble at Brock Purdy for MVP (+3000, DraftKings).

If you believe in this 49ers squad, you need to believe all the way — at least in the regular season. You're forgiven if you don't think this defense holds up in January or don't want to stake everything on Shanahan finally getting that ring. But this team has been an absolute wagon in the regular season, and giving a team with this much talent that easy of a schedule should lead to a whole heap of wins.

If the 49ers stay relatively healthy and go over 10.5 wins and take the division, the best way to bet this team may simply be to finish the regular season with the best record in the league (+1300, DraftKings).

1. Baltimore Ravens

Offense: 1 | Defense: 4 | Coaching: 2

10 Words

Baltimore's the best team in football — maybe by a lot.

Season Outlook

The Ravens look like an absolute juggernaut.

In the weeks leading up to the season, I ranked all 32 NFL teams at quarterback, skill position, offensive line, offense, defense, special teams and coaching staff. The Ravens ranked top seven in the league in every single category.

In all my years preparing for the season, I'm not sure I've ever seen a better, more perfectly rounded team.

The Ravens are awesome offensively. They run and pass better than any team in the league. They're great at both defensively. The special teams are always good. They get an edge at coaching. Everything is a strength. There is no weakness.

This has been the best offense in football since Todd Monken took the reins two years ago. Lamar Jackson is a perennial MVP candidate. It's genuinely unfair to pair his speed with Derrick Henry's thunder, and few opponents had even a semblance of an answer last fall.

The defense isn't quite as good as the offense, but it got relatively close in the back half of the season under first-year DC Zach Orr. Now they add veterans Jaire Alexander and Chidobe Awuzie, along with rookie S Malaki Starks, to form what may very well be the best secondary in the league.

If there's a weak spot anywhere, it could be at kicker, where Justin Tucker gives way to rookie Tyler Loop — but even that should be an upgrade from last season.

Biggest Questions

• The biggest question about this offense is whether there are any questions at all, at least in the regular season. Baltimore's skill positions are its best ever under Lamar Jackson with the breakout of Zay Flowers and addition of DeAndre Hopkins, and its offensive line questions from a year ago were answered soundly. This was one of the healthiest teams in the league a year ago. Can the offense withstand injuries and maintain its place at the top?
• Orr's defense was also one of the healthiest in the league last year, and though it's easy to forget now, this unit was downright average for half a season before moving Kyle Hamilton to a more traditional role and finding its second gear. Will the defense be elite again or did it catch lightning in a bottle? Can Baltimore find enough of a pass rush, and will the aging corners stay healthy?

Schedule Analysis

The Ravens look awesome, but this won't come easy. Baltimore plays the Bills, Lions, Chiefs and Texans all in the first five weeks, leading to the second-toughest first-half schedule by DVOA.

That could mean waiting to invest.

But if the Ravens win those games, it's smooth sailing from there — and there may never be another opportunity to buy in. Their second-half schedule ranks among the 10 easiest, with an especially soft middle stretch.

Win Total: Over 11.5 (Lean)

The Ravens are 3-2 to the under when John Harbaugh enters the season with a win total of 10 or higher, though they've gone over in that spot each of the past two years.

This is the best team in football, and teams this good should win 12 games, but that brutal opening stretch suggests now may not be the time to buy into a bet like this.

Either grab the future bets you don't think will be there later and go all the way, or hold off and wait.

Futures Best Bet: Lamar Jackson to win MVP and Ravens to win the Super Bowl (+2500, ESPN Bet)

My analysis of Baltimore's roster shows the Ravens to be miles ahead of any other team heading into the season — by over three points to the spread over the next-closest team in one model.

Every other top contender got worse. Baltimore should be even better — and it might have already been the best team a year ago.

It's put up or shut up time in Baltimore. No more excuses.

Jackson is one of the more obvious MVP picks in recent history. He's never lost more than five games in a season and is a near guaranteed MVP candidate when healthy, and he'll get plenty of wins with a roster this good. He checks every box.

It's time for the Ravens to do the thing and win the Super Bowl, too. You should probably bet MVP (+550, DraftKings) and Super Bowl (+700, FanDuel) separately as well, but why not squeeze both bets in here under one umbrella?

What fun is betting if you can't call your shot every once in awhile?

One last bet for the road, and it's a doozy: Ravens over 49ers in Super Bowl LX: +7000 at DraftKings.

Let's have ourselves a season.