June means football is just around the corner.
Already, teams are beginning to gather for OTA workouts, and minicamps break soon around the country. Football will be here before you know it — and many futures betting markets are already available.
It's never too early to start talking MVP, especially because the market so often offers value. Seven of the last 10 MVPs started the season with odds at +1100 or longer, and odds can swing in a hurry when a player starts out hot.
We recently did an MVP long shots draft on "The Favorites." We talked about seven or eight names, including super sleeper Justin Fields — 250-to-1! — but I'm only interested in one name right now.
At +5000 (BetMGM), Matthew Stafford is the best MVP bet on the board.
We already know what it takes to win MVP. You need the numbers, you need a heap of team wins, and you need a narrative to capture voter attention.
There's little question that the numbers can be there for Stafford. He's led the league in passing attempts twice and thrice hit or approached 5,000 passing yards. He's also thrown for 40 TDs twice, including his debut Rams season when he passed for 4.886 yards and 41 scores.
You might recall what else happened that season — Stafford won the Super Bowl and forever changed public perception of him. He's now widely regarded as a top-10 quarterback, pushing top-five when healthy.
He might also have the single best one-two receiver punch in football. Puka Nacua is already one of the league's finest receivers, and now Cooper Kupp has been replaced with Davante Adams. Nacua is seemingly always open on key downs, and Adams is a veritable cheat code in the red zone. Adams has averaged 11 TDs a season over the last nine years.
With those two targets plus the healthy return of TE Tyler Higbee, who effectively missed the entire regular season last fall, Stafford will constantly have a threatening target open downfield. Higbee, Kupp and Nacua missed 23 games combined last season.
Stafford was actually healthy — he's missed only one game to injury the past two seasons, despite the reputation — but his offense was littered with injuries around him.
His offensive line was especially crushed by injury. LT Alaric Jackson missed the first two games. C (now LG) Steve Avila got hurt in Week 1 and didn't return until Week 10. RT Rob Havenstein missed Week 1, then Weeks 10 through 12 right as Avila returned. G Jonah Jackson only played four games all season.
Stafford's level of play has been heavily linked to his offensive line play over the years. A healthier line opens up Kyren Williams, Blake Corum and that run game, and it sets Stafford and Sean McVay's offense up for huge success.
This has been as good as any offense in the league when healthy, the last two seasons. And the young defense is rapidly improving now, too. Defensive coordinator Chris Shula found something with this unit, which now adds veteran DT Poona Ford to a very talented, young defensive front already featuring reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Jared Verse, Braden Fiske, Byron Young and Kobie Turner.
If the Rams defense can get to average or better and the offense stays healthy, this is a roster with the upside to win 12 or more games and push for a top seed in the NFC. They've already won 10 games each of the past two seasons and are priced at 9.5 wins, juiced to the over, listed as effectively co-favorites in the division.
If LA does win the division ahead of San Francisco, that leaves only the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles and a Lions squad that lost a ton of talent and coaching priced clearly ahead of the Rams in the NFC. That's a path to a No. 2 or even 1 seed in the NFC, and that means a path to MVP.
Quarterbacks on top-two seeds win MVPs. They just need a narrative to attract voters, and what easier narrative than a 37-year-old QB with a Super Bowl ring playing the best season of his career as he heads toward retirement and, maybe, the Hall of Fame?
Sound crazy? Stafford is a former No. 1 pick with a Super Bowl, and he's already top-10 all-time in passing yards. With 4,280 yards this season, he could reach the top five.
He's also never been in the MVP race before, despite his stellar career. But he did get votes two years ago, his first healthy year after winning the title. Last year's injuries buried the Rams at 1-4 and left Stafford well outside the MVP conversation, but 12 or 13 wins this season would put him right in the mix.
The Rams are priced similarly to the Commanders and Packers to win the NFC, but Jayden Daniels and Jordan Love are priced twice as short as MVP favorites. The Chargers and Texans are priced even longer over in the more competitive AFC, but Justin Herbert and C.J. Stroud are also listed twice as short as Stafford.
Stafford can make every throw in the book, and he's playing with his best weapons ever in one of the league's best offensive systems for a team with a real shot at a heap of wins.
The Rams play three of their first four games against the beatable AFC South. The other one is a showdown in Philadelphia, where L.A. almost beat the eventual champs in the playoffs.
When you're investing in NFL futures this far out, the only goal should be to grab a ticket you won't be able to get later. Median outcomes are irrelevant, and there's little question about the Rams' long-tail outcomes and upside.
If the Rams start out hot and Stafford and this offense are healthy, that +5000 ticket could be missing a zero at the end after that first month of games.
It's only June, but Matthew Stafford is the best MVP bet on the board at +5000 (BetMGM), and there's a great chance you won't be able to get this ticket for long.
