It's NFL awards week, and this year we've got something new!
The league is debuting a brand new award to recognize the league's best offensive lineman: the Protector of the Year.
And this award is unlikely any other — because it will be chosen not by the usual 50 voters but by a panel of six retired NFL linemen.
Former tackle Andrew Whitworth helped lead the charge to add Protector of the Year as an award, and he joins Orlando Pace, Jason Kelce, LeCharles Bentley, Will Shields and Shaun O'Hara as the six-man panel — two tackles, two centers, two guards.
That makes this award intriguing but also impossibly difficult to predict. There's no history to build a winning profile from, and we have no idea if these guys will choose a stalwart favorite or a young up-and-comer, a member of a great all-around line or one standout on an otherwise average unit, or even someone on a winning team.
Still, if they're giving us Protector of the Year odds, we may as well figure out how to beat the market.
NFL Protector of the Year Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | 7 Recognizable Names We're Not Betting |
| 2 | 4 Long Shots Worth Considering |
| 3 | The 6 Most Likely Protector of the Year Winners |
| The Verdict |
What Do We Think We're Looking for in a Winner?
Again, we have no way to know, but we can make an educated guess based on other NFL awards.
Almost all of the awards (outside of Rookie of the Year) tend to have a winning component. Naturally, voters are going to pay more attention to high-impact guys on winning teams. It's natural to expect Protector of the Year (POY) to play on a playoff team.
Obviously, we need a great offensive lineman. Good luck finding stats to support your case, but PFF grades are probably a safe place to start.
I think we want a known name, too. This panel knows their stuff, but they're also retired players — they're (probably) not going to spend hundreds of hours watching film of backup Panthers guards this season. There's realistically a pool of maybe 35 players who could win this award, and honestly, that might be double the actual number.
The same thing happens with defensive awards — name recognition almost always narrows the field and carries the day.
Had this award existed a season ago, I would empty the bank account on it having gone to one of three tackles: Lane Johnson or Jordan Mailata from the Eagles or Penei Sewell of the Lions. Had it existed the year before, it probably goes to the retiring Jason Kelce.
We don't know! But it only makes sense to give POY to one of the consensus best players at their position on one of the best lines playing for one of the best teams — a national story.
A panel of six could always choose a sleeper, but given that this is the first Protector of the Year award, I suspect we have even more reason to believe this should go to one of the absolute best, most heralded lineman in the game — a legacy defining first pick.
So we're guessing here, but I'm looking to bet Protector of the Year on a known name widely accepted among the best few players at his position playing on a winning team, set up as a legacy pick and the face of the new award.
7 Recognizable Names We're Not Betting
Let's get right to the names and keep it brief.
If you want to read more in-depth about offensive lines, you can check out my rankings of every NFL team from 1-to-32.
We'll get to four sleepers I'm eyeing and my top six most likely POY winners shortly. Here are seven names you'll probably recognize that I'm not looking to bet.
T Dion Dawkins, Bills
The Bills have a consensus top-three line, buoyed by Josh Allen's incredible sack avoidance, and Dawkins is the best of the bunch and protects Allen's blindside.
But Dawkins' PFF grade is typically outside the top 20 among tackles, hardly elite, and there's a much bigger problem — Dawkins worked alongside Whitworth to push to get this award added, so it would look awfully fishy giving it to him in its first year of inception.
T Ronnie Stanley, Ravens
Stanley finally stayed healthy last season but is a constant health risk to make it through the season. The Ravens are sure to be careful with him as they hope to play into January and beyond.
He's also weirdly ranked exactly 37th at PFF among tackles in each of the past three years, so his days as an elite tackle may be in the past.
T Garett Bolles, Broncos
Denver has the consensus second-best line in the league, but it's more of a balanced unit than one with a standout candidate.
Bolles might be the most valuable name on the line as a left tackle. The Broncos' guards are the strength of the line, so G Quinn Meinerz is probably the name that should be listed here. But none of these guys have national name recognition.
G Quenton Nelson, Colts
Nelson looked like a surefire Hall of Famer early in his career before fading for multiple years to "just good" at guard.
He bounced back to top-five play at the position last season, but he will now have to do his job on the interior of the line without C Ryan Kelly or G Will Fries after both departed for Minnesota.
That makes life harder on Nelson, and he's probably due for another down tick in play.
T Laremy Tunsil, Commanders
Tunsil has an easy narrative case after being traded to the Commanders.
Washington could have a great season and a much improved line; Tunsil may have an easy second case en absentia if the Texans' line flounders as maybe the worst line in the league.
That said, Tunsil is consistently graded as a great pass blocker but not so great as a run blocker, and he also seems to rub more than a few folks the wrong way, both in the locker room and in the media. He may be a tough sell.
T Andrew Thomas, Giants
Thomas is an terrific tackle but will get precious little help from the rest of the Giants on his line. New York's unit likely grades out poorly most of the year — and Russell Wilson or rookie Jaxson Dart won't exactly make that line look good either.
Add in Thomas's significant injury history and he's probably not worth a dart.
T Joe Alt, Chargers
Alt absolutely looks like a future winner of this award, but the future is probably not this season.
Alt ranked top 25 at PFF as a rookie, an awesome debut season, but now he moves from right to left tackle to replace the injured Rashawn Slater.
That injury dropped the Chargers from top 10 to bottom 10 in my offensive line rankings, and it means Alt now has the harder job — and a brand new one as a pro — and three subpar teammates on his line that will likely make him look worse.
It's easy to see Alt getting buzz for this award, but it's too much to ask him to carry that whole line for 18 weeks.
4 Long Shots Worth Considering
T Charles Cross, Seahawks (+12500, bet365)
Seattle is widely expected to have one of the worst offensive lines in the league — I ranked the Seahawks 31 of 32 — but new OC Klint Kubiak's scheme is run-heavy and line-friendly.
Cross had a top-10 PFF grade at tackle last season, and Seattle's rushing attack has looked powerful in the preseason. He could be a buzzy name if Seattle's offense plays well, but he's still a relative unknown and would be a real surprise as the pick.
C Drew Dalman, Bears (+10000, bet365)
Dalman is probably on the fringe of high-end name recognition, but that could change this year in Ben Johnson's system.
Frank Ragnow was widely considered one of the league's top centers during Johnson's time with the Lions, and Dalman grades similarly at PFF with elite run-blocking abilities. Ragnow was such an important part of Johnson's rushing attack.
If the Bears take off under their new coach, Dalman will be one of those sneaky names everyone in the media is talking about.
G Chris Lindstrom, Falcons (+5000, bet365)
Lindstrom may well be the consensus top guard in the league — certainly the top right guard — and Atlanta could have a monster rushing attack.
Unfortunately, Lindstrom will likely start the season with a new starter on either side of him. The aforementioned Dalman just left for Chicago, leaving a new lefty center snapping the ball to Lindstrom's lefty QB, and now RT Kaleb McGary is injured to start the season.
That makes Lindstrom a pretty rough sell as a bet.
T Christian Darrisaw, Vikings (+4000, DraftKings)
The Vikings' offensive line could end up being the best in football once it gets healthy and gels with three new interior linemen.
Darrisaw is the best of the bunch, a top-10 tackle when healthy, but Minnesota is still playing a bit coy on his healthy return, and he'll also be playing next to a rookie guard in Donovan Jackson.
Jackson was a first-round pick but that's an extra hurdle, and Darrisaw typically misses a few games a year and is already hurt to start the season.
Darrisaw is our most likely winner of any of the names mentioned yet, but still a tough buy right now.
The 6 Most Likely Protector of the Year Winners
Enough sleepers. Let's get to my six most likely inaugural POY winners.
We'll count them down from No. 6 to No. 1.
6. C Creed Humphrey, Chiefs (+3300, bet365)
There are two linemen at each position on the six-man panel, which means two centers — the one position there's not multiple of on the line. And with Frank Ragnow retired, Humphrey is probably the most surefire consensus best in the NFL at his position.
Many centers are great at run blocking, but Humphrey is one of the few who's also great at pass blocking. Life will be much harder this year without Joe Thuney next to him, though.
Instead, it looks like sophomore Kingsley Suamataia will play LG after failing miserable at LT last season. LT will be manned by rookie Josh Simmons.
After years of dominance on the offensive line, this Chiefs unit could fall out of the top 10 — tough to reward a guy moving in the wrong direction.
5. T Penei Sewell, Lions (+500, bet365)
I think Sewell would've won this award last season — the best right tackle in the league playing for a 15-win team featuring a top-two line — but the past is the past.
There's no questioning Sewell's abilities, but Detroit is likely to fall off significantly from 15 wins, in part because the offensive line lost Ragnow and veteran Kevin Zeitler.
Sewell should win this someday, but this doesn't feel like the right year to invest.
4. G Joe Thuney, Bears (+4000, bet365)
Thuney is widely regarded as one of the league's best guards, and he's got an easy narrative case.
He already filled in admirably at both C and LT for the Chiefs en route to a Super Bowl berth last season — now he moves to the Bears, who could see a huge bump in line play and win profile. He might even get double credit if Kansas City's line falls off some without him.
Thuney has committed five penalties the last three seasons combined. In nine NFL seasons, he's played in six Super Bowls with four rings and four All-Pro berths — and two missed starts.
If Chicago makes a leap with an improved line, Thuney would be an excellent candidate at a pretty long number.
3. T Jordan Mailata, Eagles (+1200, DraftKings)
2. T Lane Johnson, Eagles (+750, DraftKings)
Everyone knows the Eagles should have the best offensive line in the league (as long as Philadelphia's guards get healthy); I have this as the best line in the league by margin.
The problem is that the line is best in the league precisely because the Eagles have both Mailata and Johnson. So how do you give one of them the de facto MVP award when the other exists? It's like giving MVP to Steph Curry when Kevin Durant is right there on the court, too.
Mailata is consistently rated better in PFF grades and is typically a bit healthier. He's the superior run blocker.
Johnson is considered more valuable to many — including myself — because of his pass-blocking versatility, and he could be headed to retirement any year so there could be some sentiment about getting him POY before he goes.
This feels like a great, natural way to reward the Eagles for a great season, but why wouldn't these two just split the vote? And if Philly's games are a bit closer and the Eagles have to pass more this season, are we sure Jalen Hurts' under-pressure foibles won't make this line look significantly worse?
1. T Trent Williams, 49ers (+1100, Caesars)
In the end, there was only ever one name that was going to be atop my initial Protector of the Year ranks.
Williams is one of the best to ever play on the offensive line. And even at age 37, he still hasn't lost a step. He is as good and as valuable as anyone when he's out there — and noticeably just as valuable when he's not.
Williams misses a few games each season but for an award without stats, that's probably not as important. He's arguably the most valuable player on the 49ers, a team capable of winning 12-plus games and making a push for the NFC 1-seed, and that's for a team without a clear MVP candidate, which makes this an excellent way of rewarding a great San Francisco season.
Even better, with Rashawn Slater and Tristan Wirfs hurt, that leaves a pretty significant gap between Williams as the obvious No. 1 LT and anyone else behind him.
If nothing else, this could just be a legacy pick for Williams.
Who better to win the first Protector of the Year award than the guy who plays the most valuable position on the line just about as well as anyone who's ever played it?
It could even end up getting a retirement narrative boost if Williams decides this is his last season.
The Verdict
In the end, it was always going to be Trent Williams for me.
Williams is listed as one of the favorites, but he'd be an easy favorite for me, so he's still a bargain at +1000 and a great way to invest in what should be a terrific bounce-back 49ers season.
I really think it'll be one of the obvious guys — Williams, Sewell or an Eagles tackle — but it's our first time with the award, so let's take a nibble on a couple long shots — Joe Thuney (+4000) and Creed Humphrey (+3300 — hoping the guard and center representation on the panel get either guy over the line at positions where it's a bit easier to stand out from the crowd.
Protector of the Year Best Bets
- Trent Williams +1100 (1 unit)
- Joe Thuney +4000 (0.25 unit)
- Creed Humphrey +3300 (0.25 unit)
