We're finally wrapping up NFL awards for the 2025 NFL season with Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY).
This award is a very tricky one to bet, so be careful.
OPOY is a difficult market to attack, effectively asking us to predict a totally unpredictable statistical outlier.
That means it's often better to bet OPOY during the season once we get some numbers. This can be a better NFL futures market to bet a couple of weeks into the season with at least a taste of some data.
The only OPOY bets I'm making before the start of the season are on long shots, numbers I'm confident I won't have any chance to grab later.
Still, we can always build a historical profile on recent winners, create an OPOY watch list, and start to build a winning position for the 2025 season. Let's get after it.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | No Repeat Winners Allowed!! |
| 2 | This Is No Longer a Quarterback Award |
| 3 | The Top Running Back Options Remaining |
| 4 | 2025 OPOY Wide Receiver Watch List |
| 5 | Offensive Player of the Year Best Bets |
Who Wins Offensive Player of the Year?
Let's take a look at the 10 most recent players to win OPOY and the numbers they put up in their winning seasons:
- 2024 — RB Saquon Barkley: 2,283 scrimmage yards, 15 TDs
- 2023 — RB Christian McCaffrey: 2,023 scrimmage yards, 21 TDs
- 2022 — WR Justin Jefferson: 128 catches, 1,809 yards, 8 TDs
- 2021 — WR Cooper Kupp: 145 catches, 1,947 yards, 16 TDs
- 2020 — RB Derrick Henry: 2,141 scrimmage yards, 17 TDs
- 2019 — WR Michael Thomas: 149 catches, 1,725 yards, 9 TDs
- 2018 — QB Patrick Mahomes: 5,097 yards, 50 TDs
- 2017 — RB Todd Gurley: 2,083 scrimmage yards, 19 TDs
- 2016 — QB Matt Ryan: 4,944 yards, 38 TDs
- 2015 — QB Cam Newton: 4,473 pass/rush yards, 45 pass/rush TDs
1. The OPOY needs to put up outrageous, outlier, totally unpredictable stats.
This is the key takeaway, by far.
Just look at the average OPOY production by position over the past decade:
- QB: 4,600 yards and 44 TDs
- RB: 2,200 yards from scrimmage and 18 TDs
- WR: 140 catches for 1,800 yards and 11 TDs
That's some truly ridiculous production over a full season — over 100 yards per game for running backs and wide receivers, and 270 yards and 2 1/2 touchdowns per game for quarterbacks.
And remember, most of the numbers above came in 16 games, so the stats project even higher now.
If you bet on a quarterback to win OPOY, you're effectively betting on him putting up 5,000 yards and pushing 50 TDs. Bet on a running back or a receiver and your guy better be pushing 2,000 yards. All four RBs to win this past decade hit 2,000 scrimmage yards.
They might as well just call it the Shockingly Great Stats Award, or maybe just the Fantasy Football League Winner Award.
That's why this award is tough to bet right now — we're just guessing at wild outlier stats. But what trends can we find outside all the crazy numbers?
2. OPOY is not an MVP consolation prize.
This is the popular narrative — we just give OPOY to whoever was really good, but not quite the MVP. It's what voters used to do with Drew Brees for years, but that hasn't been the case for a while now.
Actually, five of the past 13 OPOYs also won MVP — Adrian Peterson and all four QB OPOYs. There was only one MVP runner-up and two third-place winners.
You usually get a far better price on OPOY than MVP. If anything, you might consider OPOY as a better-priced MVP proxy for your favorite quarterback, but not a consolation prize.
3. OPOYs aren't just stats — these players also win a lot of games.
This is a statistical award, but it turns out that winning also matters.
Then again, that shouldn't come as a huge surprise. Offense wins, and these guys are putting up monster numbers. If you play well enough to rack up this many yards and TDs, your team will probably win a bunch of games.
Every OPOY over the past decade won 10 games, and all but one won 11. The average OPOY won 12.4 games — and that's closer to 13 with the expanded schedule.
That's not shocking considering a bunch of these guys won MVP, too, but it does help narrow the field a bit because we can't just get empty stats on a bad team.
We'll set our minimum at 11 wins with the extra game on the schedule.
4. It certainly looks like OPOY is no longer a QB award.
Over just the past decade, we've seen four QBs, three RBs and three WRs win this award. Not particularly helpful.
But zoom out and there's a clear pattern emerging.
From 1996-2003, running backs swept all eight OPOY awards. From 2007-2016, the award shifted toward quarterbacks as seven QBs won in 10 years.
But no quarterback has won in the last six seasons, and that makes sense.
The entire national conversation these days is that MVP is a quarterback award, and it feels like OPOY has become an award for the best non-QB statistical season.
I still think this award is shifting toward wide receivers more than running backs. Before Michael Thomas won OPOY in 2019, no wideout had won the award since Jerry Rice in 1993. Now we've had three WRs in six seasons — but RBs each of the last two.
Is this the era of the superstar WR winning OPOY? I believe we're still trending that direction.
So what are we looking for in an Offensive Player of the Year?
We need our OPOY to post crazy, outlier stats and they need to win 11+ games. This is a non-quarterbacks' award in 2025, and we may be shifting toward the era of wide receivers and should bet accordingly.
No Repeat Winners Allowed!!
RB Saquon Barkley, Eagles +650
RB Derrick Henry, Ravens +1500
WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings +1600
RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers +2200
WR Cooper Kupp, Seahawks +30000
There's one other rule we didn't get to above — no RB or WR has won OPOY multiple times since Marshall Faulk won it three straight times (1999-2001). Everyone else is one and done.
Saquon Barkley is an absolute no bet at +650.
What's he going to do to impress voters even more after last season? Barkley nearly broke the rushing record, thanks largely to all those long, breakaway runs.
Long rushes are not sticky from season to season. I project Barkley around 1,500 rushing yards, and that's still a 500-yard drop from last season.
Last year was Barkley's peak, and that's exactly why it's so hard for OPOYs to repeat. Outliers are outliers for a reason.
Derrick Henry is 31 years old with a ton of mileage on him. He hasn't slowed down yet, but he's not even the best offensive player on his own team so that's a tough sell to voters.
Justin Jefferson puts up numbers in this range every year so he'd be a top seven or eight candidate, but he effectively has a rookie QB in J.J. McCarthy and also has a tough start to the season with Jordan Addison out.
Cooper Kupp is just honored to be included in the conversation.
I will break my own rule and place a small bet on Christian McCaffrey, though — because he would be my outright favorite, and I'd place his odds closer to +800 or +1000 among the favorites and don't expect +2200 to be available later.
McCaffrey plays an incredibly soft schedule, and he consistently puts up elite numbers when healthy, so his OPOY season wasn't even really a significant outlier. McCaffrey is still only 29 and always pushes 2,000 scrimmage yards with his receiving abilities, and he has a great nose for the end zone and should score plenty for the 49ers.
McCaffrey has finished first, third and seventh in OPOY voting, and he has a cake schedule right out of the gates. It's impossibly tough to repeat as OPOY but there's too much value at +2200 to not add him to our position while that number is there (at Caesars).
This Is No Longer a Quarterback Award
QB Jayden Daniels, Commanders +5000
QB Lamar Jackson, Ravens +6000
QB Josh Allen, Bills +6000
QB Joe Burrow, Bengals +6000
QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles +8000
QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs +10000
Quarterbacks win MVP these days, not OPOY.
These numbers feel pretty crazy, but that's the reality they are reflecting.
I am personally insulted to see Patrick Mahomes listed at 100-to-1 — equal to teammate Xavier Worthy, and behind names like Breece Hall, Brock Bowers, Terry McLaurin and Mike Evans at some books. That's just silly, but it doesn't mean much if it doesn't make us money.
If you think there's still a world where a QB wins this with outlier stats as an MVP consolation prize — à la Drew Brees — then Joe Burrow would be my pick of the litter.
Burrow led the NFL in completions, attempts, yards and touchdowns last season. He's probably not going to win MVP with a bottom-seven offensive line, coaching staff and defense, but he has a serious shot at 5,000 yards and/or 50 TDs. I even bet him at +2200 to break the all-time passing record — he played at a pace to do that from Week 10 forward last season.
Still, you need to win to get OPOY these days, and the Bengals have a brutal stretch late in the season against the Steelers, Patriots, Ravens, Bills and Ravens that probably spells doom for any Burrow awards.
There's just no reason to buy into any QB for this award the way things are trending league-wide. If you disagree, you should probably just take a nibble at this whole crew and see if one hits.
The Top Running Back Options Remaining
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions +1300
RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons +1600
RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts +4200
RB De'Von Achane, Dolphins +5000
RB Bucky Irving, Bucs +6000
RB Josh Jacobs, Packers +6000
There's no proof that this is a wide receivers award in 2025 — running backs have won the last two OPOYs, and I'm already betting McCaffrey — but I'm still predominantly targeting receivers.
Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson are the two obvious picks, but it feels like investing at peak pricing.
Gibbs is a touchdown regression candidate, per Mike Clay, and he lost stud C Frank Ragnow and G Kevin Zeitler, along with not-so-secret weapon Ben Johnson at offensive coordinator. We have no idea how Gibbs will be used in John Morton's offense, but he could easily lose TD opportunities and he will likely be less productive with the downgrades at playcaller and offensive line.
I prefer Robinson but I am not excited to invest in him either after his own offensive line downgrades. Robinson already lost a great C in Drew Dalman, and now RT Kaleb McGary is out for the season. Both of those guys are excellent run blockers, and that has to hurt Robinson's value.
Robinson has the talent and a huge role with upside in Zac Robinson's offense, but it's tough to invest with a faltering line and a QB we still know very little about in Michael Penix.
I'm not interested in investing in the Dolphins right now and don't trust De'Von Achane's health. As for Josh Jacobs, I expect the Packers' passing TD percentage to trend up after an outlier down year with Jordan Love hurt.
Bucky Irving has the best upside of this group, but he too has offensive line woes with Tristan Wirfs hurt; the Bucs are missing WRs as well and have a rough schedule to start the season.
All of these RBs are easy no bets for me right now even though all have the upside to win. I want a wide receiver.
The 2025 OPOY Wide Receiver Watch List
Again, I think this is a receivers' award, and I also think that's where the best value and upside lies right now heading into the season. Let's create a 10-man WR watch list and count them down from No. 10 to No. 1.
10. WR Malik Nabers, Giants +3500
In a vacuum, Malik Nabers has the talent to rank much higher on this list. He's talented enough to be the next Terrell Owens and gets a ton of volume.
But Nabers doesn't play in a vacuum; he plays for the Giants.
In the real world, Nabers has to catch passes from Russell Wilson and eventually rookie Jaxson Dart, both playing behind an awful offensive line. Between that and the ongoing injuries, this is not the time to invest.
9. WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys +2000
CeeDee Lamb finished third in OPOY voting two years ago and has the potential to get there again, and I understand if you think he should climb these ranks after the Micah Parsons trade left this defense barren.
Dallas will be stuck in shootouts all season, and that worked pretty well helping push Ja'Marr Chase toward the receiving triple crown last season.
But that requires a volume leap after the arrival of George Pickens, and I'm not looking to invest in a Cowboys team going nowhere fast after unloading Parsons.
We need wins — Dallas won't get them without a defense.
8. WR Drake London, Falcons +5000
Drake London was a monster in the three games Michael Penix played, pacing for 125 catches and 2,000 yards with 13 targets per game, but those performances came against bad defenses.
A bet on London is also a bet on the unproven Michael Penix, and it's now a bet on a young QB playing behind a suddenly below-average offensive line that lost its center and right tackle.
Add in Atlanta's lean toward the run and it's tough to get London to the sort of outlier numbers we need.
7. WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins +4000
It's all bad vibes out of Miami, but Tyreek Hill finished top four in OPOY voting two years straight before falling off the map last season.
He's 31 now and we'll probably never get that Tyreek back, but I'd hate myself for passing on him at such a long number if I'm wrong.
This is a bet on both Tyreek and Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy, so it's asking for a lot, but Tyreek has record-breaking talent if it's still in there somewhere.
I bet Tyreek in each of the past two seasons, and I'm adding one last quarter-unit. Let's just hope it's not an early retirement gift.
6. WR Puka Nacua, Rams +2000
It's easy to argue Puka Nacua is underrated. He got hurt in Week 1 last season and missed five games, and his numbers are a bit skewed because he played limited snaps in three games around the injury.
Over his final eight games, though, Nacua paced to 142 catches and 1,781 yards on 189 targets, an absolute monster. That would put him in range for this award.
But we don't know how many of those targets will go to Davante Adams, and a Nacua bet is also a bet on the unknown health of Matthew Stafford and LT Alaric Jackson.
Nacua also has only nine career touchdowns. He's probably a better bet to break the receptions record than win OPOY, but he belongs in this group of +2000 receivers.
5. WR Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars +4000
Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie. His final seven-game pace was for 121 catches, 1,640 yards, and 12 touchdowns.
He'd need to hit those numbers and then some to win this, but now he should get a big boost in a Liam Coen offense that helped Mike Evans and Chris Godwin put up monster numbers a year ago in Tampa Bay.
The arrival of Travis Hunter could take some targets from Thomas, but Jacksonville lost a ton of receptions to Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, so there should plenty of balls to go around from Trevor Lawrence. Hunter's presence could also leave Thomas in more frequent single coverage.
Jacksonville has a bad defense and poor run game and offensive line, so it really has to be the passing game if the Jaguars are to succeed. That could set Thomas up as this year's Ja'Marr Chase if everything clicks.
Would enough voters care if it happens for Jacksonville? The Jaguars would probably need to win enough games for the numbers to matter, but I'll sprinkle Thomas at too long a number (+4000, BetRivers) and find out.
4. WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings +1600
I already covered Justin Jefferson above.
He's a perennial threat, but repeat OPOY winners are competing against their own numbers from the past as well. He deserves this price but there's no value on the number.
3. WR Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals +1000
There's a good chance Ja'Marr Chase just had the best season of his career, achieving the receiver triple crown at 127/1,708/17 — and he didn't even finish top two in OPOY voting. It's hard to win this award.
Chase is a touchdown regression candidate, per Mike Clay, and only averaged around 11 per year before last season, and there's no guarantee the Bengals are good enough to get the wins they'd need.
Last year was probably as good as it gets for Chase's OPOY odds. He's an easy pass at such short odds.
2. WR A.J. Brown, Eagles +5000
A.J. Brown is probably the lowest-volume guy of any of these receivers. He definitely was last season, but that's also because the Eagles were playing with a lead in almost every game, and that made them the run-heaviest team in the league in second halves.
It's natural to expect Philadelphia to come back to earth a little in 2025, and that should mean more passing opportunity for Brown.
Brown averages over 10 yards per target for his career and almost 16 yards per catch, insane efficiency metrics. He paced for 127 catches in 13 games last season, and he had a seven-game stretch the previous season with 120+ yards in every game and a pace for 2,355 yards.
With a pass-heavier script in Philadelphia, Brown has serious potential to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history. He's also got an easy narrative story as potentially the sneaky-best receiver in the NFL that's been hiding behind a run-heavy offense.
Brown is a bit of a risk due to the team setup of the Eagles and a small hamstring concern heading into the season, but that's buying us value. He's my favorite long shot on the board at +5000 (DraftKings), or +5500 if you can play at Circa.
1. WR Nico Collins, Texans +2000
Nico Collins is the one receiver I'd want to make sure I walk away from every fantasy draft with. He was an absolute monster to start last season; his pre-injury four-game pace for 128 catches and 2,078 yards.
The crazy thing is he could see even more volume this season if new OC Nick Caley coaxes a better offense out of this Texans crew. With Stefon Diggs now on the Patriots and Tank Dell likely out for the season, Collins could see a huge target share, especially if Houston's run game is poor again behind a bad line.
Collins starts out the season against the Rams, Bucs, Jaguars and Titans so he should explode out of the gates. With his talent and natural upside, along with the unknown upside of a new offense under Caley, he has as much potential as any receiver.
I badly want a Collins OPOY ticket and I don't blame you if you want to buy in, but for now, he looks priced pretty accurately among the collection of +2000 receivers.
I'll wait for a chance to buy.
Offensive Player of the Year Best Bets
- Christian McCaffrey +2200 (0.25 units)
- A.J. Brown +5500 (0.25 units)
- Brian Thomas Jr. +4000 (0.25 units)
- Tyreek Hill +4000 (0.25 units)
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