NFL Awards Week continues here at Action Network — let's dig into Assistant Coach of the Year.
This is not a new award, with Todd Bowles winning the inaugural award in 2014 as the defensive coordinator of the Cardinals, but it is the first year we can bet the award at the start of the season.
A new award we can bet on?! Say no more — I'm in.
I have already covered Coach of the Year, and a study of Assistant Coach of the Year (ACOY) reveals a lot of similar patterns. We need someone to win games and improve on last year's record — I'll get to what else is in play, too.
Ben Johnson won the award last season with a brilliant Lions offense, then left for a head coaching job. DeMeco Ryans, Dan Quinn and Brian Daboll also won ACOY in the last five years before leaving their teams for a promotion.
So what sort of coach wins Assistant Coach of the Year? Let's try to build a winning historical profile and look at a few of the presumed 64 offense and defensive coordinators in play.
If you want to read more about any of these coordinators, be sure to check out our full coaching staff rankings, from 1 to 32.
NFL Assistant Coach of the Year Predictions
Past Assistant Coach of the Year Winners
Let's take a look at all 11 Assistant Coach of the Year winners and see what trends we can spot:
- 2024, OC Ben Johnson (DET): 12-5 to 15-2 and 1-seed with league's No. 1 offense carrying an injury-ridden defense
- 2023, DC Jim Schwartz (CLE): 7-10 to 11-6 playoff team as first-year coordinator of DPOY Myles Garrett carrying five starting QBs
- 2022, DC DeMeco Ryans (SF): 10-7 to 13-4 with DPOY Nick Bosa and the league's No. 3 defense carrying three starting QBs
- 2021, DC Dan Quinn (DAL): 6-10 to 12-5 as a first-year coordinator, improving the defense from 28th to 7th in PPG
- 2020, OC Brian Daboll (CLE): 10-6 to 13-3 with league's No. 2 offense, helping Josh Allen break out
- 2019, OC Greg Roman (BAL): 10-6 to 14-2 and 1-seed with league's No. 1 offense and breakout MVP Lamar Jackson
- 2018, DC Vic Fangio (CHI): 5-11 to 12-4 with league's No. 1 defense carrying Mitch Trubisky to the top of the conference
- 2017, OC Pat Shurmur (MIN): 8-8 to 13-3 as first-year coordinator, elevating backup QB Case Keenum
- 2016, OC Kyle Shanahan (SF): 8-8 to 11-5 with league's No. 1 offense and breakout MVP Matt Ryan
- 2015, DC Wade Phillips (DEN): 12-4 to 12-4 as a first-year coordinator, elevating defense to top five as Peyton Manning faded
- 2014, DC Todd Bowles (ARI): 10-6 to 11-5 with top-five defense carrying the No. 24 offense starting three QBs
1. Just like Coach of the Year, Assistant Coach of the Year has to win a lot of games.
Our ACOYs won a lot of games. Duh.
The 11 ACOYs averaged 12.5 wins, so really 13 wins since over half of those seasons came with a 16-game schedule.
Every single winner coached a team with at least 11 wins.
2. It's not just about winning — Assistant Coaches of the Year must improve from last season.
Not one ACOY winner coached for a team that got worse than the season before, and 10 of the 11 improved their winning season.
On average, these coaches saw their teams improve by 3.5 wins from the previous season! That's a lot.
Both of these criteria are basically exactly in line with Coach of the Year — so what's different?
3. Assistant Coaches of the Year often coach for lopsided teams, with their unit carrying a weaker unit.
This is where things get interesting.
Using PPG to measure offense and defense is flawed for any number of reasons, but it's also a quick and dirty way to measure across seasons.
All but one ACOY winner saw their unit rank top 10 in PPG, with eight of the 11 ranking in the top five. They collectively average 4.2.
Compare that to the other unit on the team, which has an average rank of just 11.2.
For eight of the 11 ACOYs, their unit was the better one — and those winners with the better unit were better by an average of almost 12 spots in the ranks.
Translation: we want a lopsided NFL team, where either the offense or defense is carrying the other unit. That's our narrative portion.
So what are we looking for in Assistant Coach of the Year?
We need a coach who wins a lot and improves on last year, preferably the assistant of a lopsided team where their unit is significantly better than the other. Ideally, we'd love the coordinator of a 12+ win team that improved by 3+ wins with a top-five unit.
A few other notes we should keep in mind:
- We've got five offensive coordinators and six defensive coordinators. No real pattern to discern there yet.
- Eight of the 11 ACOYs were in their first two years on the job. Almost half were in their first year, and four of those five were veteran coaches who had previously failed as NFL head coaches before rebounding to thrive in a coordinator role.
There are 64 possible winners so I can't go through every name, but I'll rule out a bunch of intriguing names that don't look like the best fits, whittle our field to the seven most likely winners, and choose three best bets.
Teams Already Too Good to Get Enough Credit
OC Dan Pitcher, Bengals
OC Joe Brady, Bills
OC Todd Monken, Ravens
There are three reasons these guys won't win ACOY: Joe Burrow, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
It's tough to get credit for elevating an offense when it's already elite and led by an elite QB, and these guys also don't have a path to the sort of improvement we typically see with this award.
Too Soon
OC Josh Grizzard, Buccaneers
OC John Morton, Lions
DC Kelvin Sheppard, Lions
OC Klint Kubiak, Seahawks
OC Nick Caley, Texans
Expect to hear a lot about these guys early and often this season as debut coordinators of units that could be very good if everything clicks. Maybe one of them is the next Ben Johnson!
But history says we actually don't want a first-year assistant coach when they're not already well known as a previous head coach.
These guys have to win voters over, and they usually need more than one possibly fluky year to do it.
Even Johnson didn't win the award until year three with the Lions.
Just Not Quite Good Enough
DC Shane Bowen, Giants
DC Steve Wilks, Jets
OC Chip Kelly, Raiders
DC Brandon Staley, Saints
DC Dennard Wilson, Titans
There's plenty to like about these five names, and plenty of reason to believe in their units — most of them defense.
But remember, every single ACOY won at least 11 games, with an average of 12.5 wins. Do you really think one of these teams is going to push 12 or 13 wins? More power to you.
Names like Kelly, Wilks and Staley fit the bill as debut coordinators after failing in a previous head coaching stint, but this is still a team award, and I can't get there on these five teams.
OC Drew Petzing, Cardinals
DC Nick Rallis, Cardinals
I'm including two more names here from the same team.
The Cardinals are better than the other teams in this group, and Arizona could certainly make a playoff push. Both Petzing and Rallis are exciting young coaching names that could be buzzy head coach choices. Neither would be a surprise at all as ACOY.
So why are we ruling them out?
They're in each other's way. Arizona's offense and defense are improving, and neither unit is likely to finish top five in PPG, nor well ahead of the other side of the ball.
It could be hard for either guy to get separation from the other.
Wrong Side of the Ball
DC Dennis Allen, Bears
DC Jeff Hafley, Packers
OC Josh McDaniels, Patriots
We're getting closer and these certainly look like good candidates. Allen and McDaniels are debut coordinators after failed stints previously as head coaches, and it's easy to make a case for each of these units improving, maybe even pushing top 10.
But if these teams do win double-digit games, will it be because of the unit these guys coach? In a word: no.
New England has a potential top-10 defense. Green Bay's offense is perennially great under Matt LaFleur. Allen's defense won't be the story of the Bears' season, not with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams around.
It's not that these guys can't win the award — any of them could! But they don't fit our profile as well as my top seven candidates.
Four Correct Favorites Who Lack Betting Value
DC Vance Joseph, Broncos +600
DC Brian Flores, Vikings +800
DC Robert Saleh, 49ers +800
DC Vic Fangio, Eagles +800
These guys are the top four favorites at most books, and they'd be four of my top seven favorites.
All are former head coaches, now back doing what they do best, leading elite defenses. All four lead a defense I ranked in my top 10 heading into the new season. Joseph likely has the best case for having a lopsided team, with a lackluster offense carried by the defense.
Defense isn't very sticky from season-to-season though, and it's hard to bet on an elite top-five defense again from this quartet.
Remember, we also need a heap of wins and a record as good or better than last season. That's a lot to ask for three of these four, all but Saleh and the 6-11 49ers.
It wouldn't be a surprise at all to see one of these men win Assistant Coach of the Year — they fit the criteria to a tee.
But there's little or no betting value when they're each priced so short among 64 candidates. So let's identify the three others worth a bet as we hit the regular season.
My 3 Assistant Coach of the Year Bets for 2025
DC Jesse Minter, Chargers +3300 (FanDuel)
For a good chunk of last season, Jesse Minter's Chargers defense was revered in almost the same way as the guys we just discussed.
Minter came with Jim Harbaugh from Michigan and worked wonders with an under-talented Chargers roster, turning them into one of the league's surprisingly great pass defenses. Minter mixed up coverages early on and got breakout seasons from young players like CB Tarheeb Still and LB Daiyan Henley.
The Chargers offense could struggle some this year with stud T Rashawn Slater out. If L.A.'s defense carries it back to the playoffs with another aggressive campaign, Minter will be a buzzy head coaching candidate and could very well win this award.
OC Kliff Kingsbury, Commanders +2800 (bet365)
I've never been the biggest Kliff Kingsbury fan, but there's no denying the success he found with Jayden Daniels and the Washington offense as a whole last season.
Kingsbury did a great job adding creative run schemes to his playcalling, and he also called the plays that repeatedly helped the team convert in huge fourth downs all season, going a ridiculous 20-of-23.
What if Kingsbury and the offense keep that up with an even bigger step forward, but Daniels isn't ready for MVP quite yet?
Washington's defense is old and not great, so this would definitely be the side of the ball that gets credit. Kingsbury could be the perfect guy to get credit for a successful Commanders campaign, and he's got that failed head coach bounce-back narrative in his favor as well.
OC Zac Robinson, Falcons +6000 (FanDuel)
Zac Robinson is my favorite bet on the board, and I'm floored he's sitting there at +6000.
Atlanta's defense is not good or even average, so if the Falcons win the weak NFC South and take a big step forward, it'll have to be because of the offense.
Robinson quietly did a terrific job coaxing an above average Offensive DVOA out of this team last year, considering he had to do so as a first-time playcaller with an old QB who couldn't move in Kirk Cousins and then a rookie debut in Michael Penix.
Robinson built a brilliant run game, unleashing Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, and the Falcons had good success passing late with Penix outside the hash marks.
If Penix continues to improve and keeps hitting those deep shots all season, this could be an explosive offense and Robinson could be the next Ben Johnson — architect of a great offense and future head coach, the talk of the league.
Robinson is a bullseye for Assistant Coach of the Year, and this is a great way to bet on a high-end outcome for the Falcons.
The Verdict
This is our first time betting on Assistant Coach of the Year, and it's a tough market with 64 candidates, but a new market also implies value down the board so we're grabbing a trio of long shots.
Vance Joseph, Brian Flores, Vic Fangio and Robert Saleh all make sense as favorites but are already priced accordingly, robbing us of any real betting value. Defense is tough to predict anyway.
Let's take a swing on three second-year guys who found a lot of success last year, all lopsided teams where the opposing unit looks bad or worse, each with plenty of young talent ready to make a leap: Zac Robinson, Kliff Kingsbury, and Jesse Minter.
Assistant Coach of the Year Best Bets
- Zac Robinson +6000 (0.5 units)
- Kliff Kingsbury +2800 (0.25 unit)
- Jesse Minter +3300 (0.25 units)
