NFL Awards Week continues at Action Network, and today I'm digging into Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY).
Defensive awards aren't the sexiest, but they're often profitable to bet on because they're typically more predictable than others.
You may not want to pay attention to defense — but voters don't either, which means the field is often much narrower than other markets.
Last year's draft was a weird one, with no defender taken in the first 14 picks. This year was a bit more even, with Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter taken in the top three picks.
Does Hunter even count as a defender? What do we do with that, and how do we bet this market?
Let's build a DROY historical winner profile and go through the names at the top.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
Who Wins Defensive Rookie of the Year?
1. Unlike many other awards, favorites tend to win.
Three of the last five DROY winners started the season at +700 or shorter in the market. They were among the betting favorites from the very start.
Jared Verse just missed last season at +1100, but that now means 10 of the last 13 DROYs (77%) started the season at +1100 or shorter.
Depending on your book, that immediately narrows the field to five players, or fewer: Abdul Carter, Jalon Walker, Travis Hunter, Mykel Williams, and Mike Green. Four of those five are pass rushers.
2. DROY tends to be an award for pass rushers.
Six of the last 10 DROYs racked up at least seven sacks. It's hard to find playing time as a rookie and even tougher to put up numbers to make a noticeable impact, so it's sometimes easier to flash a few times.
Verse had elite pressure metrics but actually fell short here at 4.5 sacks.
Only three corners have won the award this century — but it's notable that all three have come since 2015. This used to be a linebacker award with their propensity to rack up tackles, but only one off-ball LB (Shaq Leonard) has won in the past decade.
No safety has won since 1990.
3. Winning doesn't matter much — but an improving defense seems to help.
Unlike some awards, voters don't expect rookie defenders to come in and work miracles.
Winning — and even team defensive metrics — do not seem particularly important for DROY winners. Eight of the last 15 winners played for teams that finished .500 or worse — though six of the last eight won at least 10, so perhaps that's changing.
It does seem to help if voters see a huge leap in defensive performance as a team.
The last seven winners before Verse joined a team that ranked bottom seven in PPG allowed and helped turn things around to a top-12 finish. This year, that list of "eligible" teams at the bottom includes the Panthers, Cowboys, Titans, 49ers, Browns, Jaguars, Bengals and Raiders.
4. The most predictive factor is draft position.
Every single DROY this century was drafted in the top 40 picks.
Twenty-two of the 25 were taken in the first round, and 20 of the 25 went top 15. That's an 80% chance our DROY is one of 15 names — and that's more like seven or eight since half the guys drafted play offense! Heck, seven winners this century (28%) were simply the first defender off the board.
It makes sense, and it's really just a bit of selection bias. The guys taken at the top of the draft are the best prospects! They're the most ready to play and most likely to step into a bad situation with an easier and certain path to playing time.
Draft position remains king.
So, what are we looking for in a DROY?
We want a pass rusher who was a top 40 draft pick, likely top 15, and flashy plays matter much more than winning. And actually, it's probably just one of the favorites.
Well this year, there's one obvious absolute bullseye candidate who checks every box, and he's the biggest favorite in any awards market heading into the season.
Let's start with a look at Abdul Carter and then go from there.
Do We Bet the Overwhelming Favorite?
ED Abdul Carter, Giants +250
Remember what I just said — we want a top draft pick who rushes the passer and is one of the favorites.
Well, Carter was the first defender off the board (depending on how you feel about Travis Hunter) and a top-three pick — he had 12 sacks last season at Penn State, and he's the clear betting favorite.
If you've seen enough and are ready to get your bet in, I don't blame you!
But I'm hesitant.
The case for Carter is pretty easy. He's been getting rave reviews all summer and looks like the NFL's next star pass rusher, and he should get plenty of single-team opportunities off the edge with Dexter Lawrence eating up space in the middle of the Giants' line, plus Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux also getting plenty of attention off the edge.
New York has one of the best defensive fronts in the league, and I ranked the Giants on the fringe of my top-10 defenses. And though I'm not super high on defensive coordinator Shane Bowen, he's routinely had multiple guys with 8+ sacks both in New York and Tennessee.
Carter looks awesome and he's the correct favorite. But I just can't invest in a guy priced +250 or shorter at every book, even below +200, when he hasn't even stepped on an NFL field for a real snap yet.
It's just far too short a price, way too much a bet on certainty, for a small profit and six months of waiting in the market.
All those options on the defensive line are nice, but they'll also rank ahead of Carter in the pecking order for snaps and pass rushes. And he has very low chances of sniffing 10 wins and no chance of helping to turn around a terrible defense.
Carter can definitely win. He probably will!
But I can't bet him anywhere near this short of a number — and he's sucking up so much of the market that it means our best move is to pivot and build an anti-Carter position with a couple longer shots.
Maybe Just Travis Hunter Then?
CB Travis Hunter, Jaguars +1300
The Jaguars made a huge splash trading up for Travis Hunter, but we've yet to see much from him in the preseason thanks to injuries, which means we don't have a clear answer yet on how much he'll play on offense or defense.
The prevailing theory for now is that Hunter will largely play receiver, maybe 80% of his snaps with a smattering of defensive snaps sprinkled in. That would make sense even more if he's lost practice time with the nagging injuries.
We do get corner DROY winners at times and the Jaguars are a defense that ranked near the bottom and could take a leap, specifically if they suddenly had a shutdown corner. Hunter had seven interceptions the last two years and obviously has the ball skills to make some splash plays.
I can't bet Hunter at a relatively short price when we don't even know if he'll play defense much yet. If you want a piece of action, I'd prefer the 100-to-1 markets for him to win Rookie of the Year (on both sides of the ball) as a sort of voter recognition of the generational talent Hunter brings as a two-way prospect.
It's Tough for Defensive Tackles to Win
DT Mason Graham, Browns
DT Kenneth Grant, Dolphins
DT Derrick Harmon, Steelers
DT Tyleik Williams, Lions
It's really tough for a defensive tackle to make a big enough splash to win a defensive award — unless that player is named Aaron Donald.
Tackles play inside, eating up space, stuffing the run, and trying to get to the quarterback up the middle. But they typically don't rack up many counting stats, and like it or not, that's what a majority of voters still seem to go on, even in 2024 — just ask Philadelphia's Jalen Carter a couple seasons ago.
Only two of the last 29 DROYs played defensive tackle.
These four guys were all first-round picks, but none of them even had a four-sack season in college. I can't drum up any interest.
It's just too tough for these guys to get noticed at defensive tackle.
How About the Other Non-Edge Rushers?
LB Jihaad Campbell, Eagles +1500
S Malaki Starks, Ravens +2000
CB Jahdae Barron, Broncos +2200
LB Carson Schwesinger, Browns +3500
Campbell is a tough sell at +1500. We don't get many linebacker winners anymore, and he's already dealing with injuries and has a ton of competition in Philadelphia. He did have five sacks at Alabama last year, but it's hard to see him playing enough to get the numbers.
Both Campbell and Starks are getting shorter odds because they may play an important role on a great, winning defense, but that's not the sort of thing that typically wins this award.
Barron is similar, but we do have three cornerback DROYs over the past decade. He'll play opposite Patrick Surtain, which means Barron is going to get targeted early and often in Vance Joseph's man-heavy system.
That could be good for splash plays — Barrown led the SEC with five picks last year — but likely also means some high profile negative plays giving up the big one.
Schwesinger is the one guy I like in this tier, even though he's technically not even a first-round pick, taken one pick later at No. 33.
He led the Big Ten with 90 tackles last year and also added four sacks and two interceptions. Cleveland is suddenly lacking linebacker options so Schwesinger should be a day one starter.
Maybe he puts up numbers similar to what Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah did two years ago for Jim Schwartz, 101 combined tackles with two picks and 3.5 sacks. Schwesinger had a top-50 athleticism score among over 3,200 linebacker prospects since 1987, so he's elite at everything and can certainly make some big plays.
Schwesinger has had great reviews in the preseason and even had six tackles in 13 snaps one game. The Browns defense should bounce back after a terrible year, though 10 wins obviously won't be there.
Still, +3500 is just way too long for a day one starter who will be in the middle of the action for an aggressive defense all season.
Schwesinger breaks my usual rules and we'll need a Luke Kuechly-type campaign here, but I'll play him at +3500.
Five First-Round Edges to Avoid for Now
ED Jalon Walker, Falcons +1000
ED Mike Green, Ravens +1400
ED James Pearce Jr., Falcons +1700
ED Shemar Stewart, Bengals +2500
ED Walter Nolen, Cardinals +3000
These guys are much closer to the typical DROY winner profile as first-round pass rushers, and they're certainly in play.
Atlanta drafted Walker, then traded up future picks to add Pearce in the first round. The Falcons haven't had a player record seven sacks since 2019, a genuinely embarrassing stat. Maybe these two will fix that.
Walker has the shortest odds of this quintet, but I'd rank him last of the five. He makes the cut as a top-15 pick but he had just 6.5 and five sacks in his last two seasons while rotating with guys at Georgia last season, and he could be rotating this year with Leonard Floyd, Arnold Ebiketie, and Pearce.
I'm not excited about Atlanta's defense, nor DC Jeff Ulbrich's system, and I'd prefer Pearce of the two Falcons. He had 17.5 sacks the last two seasons and those splash plays matter. He's been the buzzier player this preseason and has the trade-up narrative, too.
Pearce would be my top choice of these five.
Mike Green technically doesn't fit the category since he was the No. 59 pick, falling in the draft because of significant off-field concerns. That could make it tough to garner voter interest even if the numbers are there.
Green had 23 sacks for Marshall in a breakout campaign but will have to earn time from Odafe Oweh, Kyle Van Noy and others just to see the field. He's an easy pass at +1400.
Stewart had just 1.5 sacks in each of his three Texas A&M seasons. He might be more of a Sam Hubbard all-around replacement. He just hasn't posted enough numbers in his career to draw interest.
Nolen looks like he'll play as a 3-4 edge, though he played more tackle last season. He missed a lot of training camp, so he's a wait and see at best.
I'm not betting any of these five — but there's one more name on the board that's my top bet in the market.
The Best Edge Rusher Bet on the Board
ED Mykel Williams, 49ers +1400
Drafted 11th Williams, was the top edge rusher in the draft after Abdul Carter, and it looks like the former Georgia star will step into the 49ers' lineup right away.
The 49ers defense struggled last season with the fourth-worst PPG allowed in the NFL, so that sets the team up for a natural jump back to the top under new defensive coordinator Robert Saleh.
Williams will also benefit from playing across one of the league's premier pass rushers. Nick Bosa eats up double teams, and the edge opposite him typically posts six to eight sacks — that might be enough.
Williams posted 4.5 or 5.0 sacks all three seasons as part of Georgia's rotation — just 14 total in three seasons — though he did add 23 tackles for losses. Those aren't overwhelming flash stats, but they're close enough to get a look as he moves into more of a feature role in the pros, especially since he can also slide inside and rush over the tackle. That could keep him on the field for all three downs.
Don't underestimate the coaching either. Saleh has great defensive chops, and Williams should also benefit from playing for legendary San Francisco defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who repeatedly coaxes big seasons out of his linemen. Maybe Williams will be his next success story.
Williams isn't a slam-dunk pick, but he's priced too long at +1400 (DraftKings) thanks to the Abdul Carter and Travis Hunter hype. Williams is my top DROY bet heading into the new season.
Defensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets
- Mykel Williams +1400 (0.5 unit)
- Carson Schwesinger +3500 (0.5 unit)
