The 2025 NFL season is just about here here, so it's time to wrap up my season awards preview with the big one: NFL MVP.
What exactly does it mean to be the NFL Most Valuable Player in 2025? That conversation can send any sports fan down the rabbit hole for hours, debating the meaning of "value," who deserves the award and what the MVP criteria should be.
Josh Allen is the reigning NFL MVP after leading the Bills to 13 wins last year, racking up 40 touchdowns and cutting his interceptions to a career-low six. It was a very close vote against defending MVP Lamar Jackson, but voters decided Allen was a worthy first-time MVP.
So what defines a Most Valuable Player? What makes one player more valuable than another, and what sort of player wins MVP? Is this just a quarterbacks club or is the race open to other positions? And how much of this simply comes down to narrative and recency bias at the end of the day?
We'll monitor this award and add to our portfolio all season, so let's set the stage by building a historical NFL MVP winner profile and considering 18 potential MVP cases. I'll explain which names are no bets right now, what sleepers we're keeping an eye on, this year's clear and deserving favorite and the three MVP bets you need to make right now before the season.
Read about all of the other 2025 NFL awards:
- Offensive Rookie of the Year
- Defensive Rookie of the Year
- Offensive Player of the Year
- Defensive Player of the Year
- Comeback Player of the Year
- Coach of the Year
- Assistant Coach of the Year
- Protector of the Year
NFL MVP Predictions
Who Wins NFL MVP?
Let's take a look back at the 18 MVP winners since Tom Brady's 16-0 season and spot some patterns:
- 2024 Josh Allen: 3,731 yards, 40 TDs, 6 INT, 13-4, 2-seed
- 2023 Lamar Jackson: 3,678 yards, 29 TDs, 7 INT, 13-4, 1-seed
- 2022 Patrick Mahomes: 5,250 yards, 41 pass TDs, 12 INT, 14-3, 1-seed
- 2021 Aaron Rodgers: 4,115 yards, 37 pass TDs, 4 INT, 13-4, 1-seed
- 2020 Aaron Rodgers: 4,299 yards, 48 pass TDs, 5 INT, 13-3, 1-seed
- 2019 Lamar Jackson: 3,127 yards, 43 TDs, 6 INT, 14-2, 1-seed
- 2018 Patrick Mahomes: 5,097 yards, 50 pass TDs, 12 INT, 12-4, 1-seed
- 2017 Tom Brady: 4,577 yards, 32 pass TDs, 8 INT, 13-3, 1-seed
- 2016 Matt Ryan: 4,944 yards, 38 pass TDs, 7 INT, 11-5, 2-seed
- 2015 Cam Newton: 3,837 yards, 45 TDs, 10 INT, 15-1, 1-seed
- 2014 Aaron Rodgers: 4,381 yards, 38 pass TDs, 5 INT, 12-4, 2-seed
- 2013 Peyton Manning: 5,457 yards, 55 pass TDs, 10 INT, 13-3, 1-seed
- 2012 Adrian Peterson: 2,097 rushing yards, 12 TDs, 10-6, 6-seed
- 2011 Aaron Rodgers: 4,643 yards, 45 pass TDs, 6 INT, 15-1, 1-seed
- 2010 Tom Brady: 3,900 yards, 36 pass TDs, 4 INT, 14-2, 1-seed
- 2009 Peyton Manning: 4,500 yards, 33 pass TDs, 16 INT, 14-2, 1-seed
- 2008 Peyton Manning: 4,002 yards, 27 pass TDs, 12 INT, 12-4, 5-seed
- 2007 Tom Brady: 4,806 yards, 50 pass TDs, 8 INT, 16-0, 1-seed
1. Quarterbacks win MVP.
It's not shocking to see 17 of our last 18 MVPs have been quarterbacks.
We started with 2007 for a reason. That was Tom Brady's 16-0 Patriots season in which he set an NFL record for passing TDs and ushered in the modern passing era. The previous two years saw Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson win MVP after rushing for 27 and 28 TDs (NFL record), respectively, in a bygone workhorse RB era.
The only non-QB MVP in the last 18 seasons was Adrian Peterson, who nearly broke the all-time rushing record. And even including those three RBs, 22-of-25 MVPs (88%) this century have been QBs.
Cooper Kupp is the only non-QB to get a first-place MVP vote in the past seven years — he got exactly one (1) vote.
This is a quarterback award, and I won't even consider any other position.
2. We love repeat MVP winners.
Did you notice how often the same names came up over and over again?
Jackson won a second time, the year after Mahomes snagged a second, with Rodgers winning two of his four in between. Three more went to Peyton Manning, three others to Brady. That's 78% of MVPs — 14 of the 18! — to the same five Hall of Famers.
That's why the average MVP in this stretch is just over 30 years old, because these aging superstars keep winning. Outside of Brady, Manning and Rodgers, the average MVP is 26 years old, with six of the eight age 27 or younger.
Manning even had a pair of MVPs before this stretch. Looking back further, 24 of the past 36 MVPs were won by Jackson, Mahomes, Rodgers, Brady, Manning, Kurt Warner, Brett Favre, Steve Young and Joe Montana. That's two-thirds of all MVP trophies to the same nine dudes everyone knew were all-timers.
MVP greats win again and again — so don't be surprised if it's just Mahomes, Jackson or Allen winning in 2025.
2b. … But usually not consecutive winners.
Aaron Rodgers was an exception to the rule in 2021-22.
Jim Brown won the first two MVPs ever in 1957-58. Since then, only five players have won NFL MVP in consecutive seasons, and only Rodgers and Manning this century.
Think how unlikely that is: two-thirds of all MVPs go to the same guys who keep on winning year after year, but almost never the same guy in back-to-back years.
MVPs repeat — but rarely consecutively.
Bettor beware: Josh Allen.
3. We need serious MVP statistical production.
Check out the average stat line for an MVP QB during these 18 years: 4,370 passing yards, 40.4 passing TDs, 8.1 interceptions.
Not a bad season of work! And we probably need even higher numbers now since passing continues to increase and those numbers are mostly from 16-game seasons.
That's about 275 yards and 2.5 TDs a game, and those numbers go up even further if we exclude Jackson and Cam Newton, who did much of their damage on the ground. The touchdowns especially stand out, with 11 of the 17 hitting outlier passing TD rates their MVP season.
Six of the 17 threw double-digit interceptions, so 10-12 picks are not necessarily disqualifying if the rest of the profile is great, but only one MVP had more than that.
It's notable that Allen finally won MVP the same year he cut his interceptions.
4. We need a winner — like, a big-time, serious winner.
This is the most important takeaway, and it's what drives the narrative portion of the MVP award. Like it or not, QBs still get the most credit for wins and losses, and we need a winning quarterback.
Our 17 quarterback MVPs went 227-49, a sparkling 82.2% win rate. That's a 14.0-win pace over a 17-game season — that is a lot of wins.
Our MVPs finished as the 1-seed a whopping 13 times (76%), plus thrice as a 2-seed. The only one outside the top two seeds was Manning in 2008, an unlikely and probably bad winner.
5. Long shots have dominated lately, but for proven, elite QBs, shorter odds are OK.
Allen was no huge surprise to books last season, starting the season at +900. But seven of the last 10 MVPs began the season at +1100 or longer, with Mahomes (2022) and Brady (2017) the only other exceptions. That reverses a trend from the previous six years, where only one winner started the season longer than +800.
Because so many elite QBs repeat as MVP, favorites tend to be in the mix. And it's possible that brief trend of long shots was simply indicative of the short respite between the Brady-Manning era and the Mahomes-Jackson-Allen one we appear to have entered now.
Still, if you're betting someone with shorter odds, it better be a future Hall of Famer who's won it before.
Though, it's not like new long-shot winners have stuck around. Three of our last 13 MVPs never received a vote before their MVP win and never got another vote since. For most mere mortals, you get one shot and one shot only at your peak outlier MVP season.
Bettor beware: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy.
6. Advanced metrics tend to be great predictors of MVP voting — in season.
The invaluable website RBSDM tracks Expected Points Added (EPA) and Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) to measure QB value, along with a composite EPA + CPOE to rank the league's best.
Over the last 12 years of data, every MVP but two finished the season top two in EPA, and two-thirds finished No. 1. The same was nearly true for EPA + CPOE.
Every MVP but Jackson (2023) and Newton finished top two in EPA. Rodgers led the league in both of his recent MVP wins, Allen did last fall and Mahomes did the same in his last MVP season.
For now, that doesn't help us much until we get some regular-season data, but it's a great tool to keep an eye on as the season progresses. History says EPA is a great MVP predictor.
So what are we looking for in an MVP winner?
This is an individual award, but it's really a team accomplishment.
We need a QB capable of a 13-win season and a run at the 1-seed, and they need to have a real shot at 4,500 yards and 40+ TDs.
OK, let's get to the 18 quarterback candidates worth considering, from least to most likely to win, and open our MVP portfolio.
Tier 5 — Only in the Conversation If Their Team is a 1-Seed
Baker Mayfield, Buccaneers +3500 (BetRivers)
JJ McCarthy, Vikings +8000 (BetRivers)
Caleb Williams, Bears +4000 (BetMGM)
Bo Nix, Broncos +6000 (FanDuel)
Jared Goff, Lions +4000 (Caesars)
We're exclusively looking for a quarterback on a top-two seed. That means only four actual candidates can win MVP by the end of the season, and it means we have to consider the tip-top teams, even if their QBs are not obvious MVP fits.
It also means our candidate list cuts off here, with apologies to young players like Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr. and Trevor Lawrence, who just don't look realistic to lead a team to a top-two seed this season.
None of the players on this list "feel" like an MVP, not even in a 14-3 run at the 1-seed, but if all the real MVP candidates cancel each other out and one of these guys is 8-1 in November, we'll at least have to pretend they've entered The Conversation.
Jared Goff is probably closest to earning that respect after the last few seasons under Ben Johnson. But Johnson is gone now, along with two key offensive line starters, and the Lions are my bottom team in the NFC North entering the division so this just isn't the time or place to invest. Goff is last of this group and my least likely MVP of the 18 candidates.
Caleb Williams is the new Goff — he gets Johnson now and he also gets a huge makeover and influx of talent on his offensive line. Goff averaged a 4,500/32 pace in Johnson's offense the last three years, but that's asking an awful lot of a sophomore QB who's erratic with a tough schedule.
Baker Mayfield tops this tier because he's surrounded by so much talent in the Bucs offense, but he had a sneakier long-shot case before the injuries to Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan left Tampa's offensive situation murky entering the season. Add in another new offensive coordinator and a tough opening schedule and Mayfield is an easy no bet right now.
Including Bo Nix as an option in this tier might be the nicest thing I've ever written about him.
Nix's floor as a rookie was higher than I expected, but I still don't see any real ceiling in a gimmick offense with bad weapons. If Denver's defense is awesome again and the Broncos go 15-2 and we have to pretend this is a thing, I'm gonna go out of my mind.
J.J. McCarthy is the bet I like best of this group and would've been a play at +15000 where he was a few weeks ago.
I rank the Vikings top quarter of the league on both offense and defense, and that's counting McCarthy as a fringe-bottom-10 QB right now. If he's even average or better, this is a top-three offense and as good an NFC team as any.
Minnesota has finished top six in both passing yards and TDs in all three Kevin O'Connell seasons, and that's with over half the games started by the backup QB — not just Sam Darnold, but also names like Nick Mullens, Joshua Dobbs and Jaren Hall.
What if McCarthy isn't just as good as those guys … what if he's better?
KOC QBs have combined for 4,400/32, with 30+ TDs in all three seasons, and the Vikings won 13 and 14 games in two of those seasons. If McCarthy is a little better, could we be looking at 4,800/40 and a shock MVP contender?
It's not impossible — but I still rate each name in this tier at around just 1% of winning MVP. Basically none of them are particularly investable.
Tier 4 — The Numbers & Flash Could Be There — But Not the Teammates
Kyler Murray, Cardinals +5500 (Caesars)
Matthew Stafford, Rams +4000 (FanDuel)
Dak Prescott, Cowboys +4000 (BetMGM)
Justin Herbert, Chargers +2200 (Caesars)
You can make a reasonable case for each of these guys as top-10 quarterbacks who are capable of a top-five season.
But MVP is a team award, not an individual one, and the guys in this tier don't play on teams that look capable of competing for a top-two seed, even if the stats and highlight plays are there along the way.
Justin Herbert is the easiest cut of the group, especially at the shortest odds. Even with last year's step up in play, he still finished outside the top 10 QBs in key advanced metrics, and he'll get precious little help from his team with stud LT Rashawn Slater out for the season and OC Greg Roman calling plays — plus a potential step back from a defense that overachieved last season.
There's some obvious narrative potential now, but I'm crossing Dak Prescott off the list. He's coming off a terrible year and has never earned media respect in the playoffs.
Head coach Brian Schottenheimer has skewed toward the run in the past, and even if Prescott puts up a huge statistical year, it'll likely be because he was passing from behind all game because the defense is so bad now without Micah Parsons.
I bet Matthew Stafford as a +5000 long shot in the offseason and I don't mind the long-tail upside play for a guy whose odds got down to +2800 a couple weeks ago, but the injury concerns that have popped up in August are too worrying to invest, both for him and LT Alaric Jackson. It's a tough opening schedule and the Rams have started slow, so at least wait to see if Stafford is healthy.
Kyler Murray is the only one of these four I have making the playoffs, with a Cardinals team whose offense and defense both appear to be on an upward trajectory. Murray is reportedly going to run a bit more this season, which could be good for his numbers but bad for his health given his frame and injury history.
I'm giving each of these guys around a 2% shot at MVP, so Murray has a touch of value at +5500; he has a super soft opening schedule if you want to invest.
It would be easy enough to see him looking like one of the favorites in October, but we've never gotten a full healthy season of top-level play from Murray yet.
Joe Burrow, +600 (any book)
Jayden Daniels, +1000, FanDuel
Any Non-QB MVP Winner
Surprise! There are two more names in this tier, and you're not going to be happy.
But your wallet might be, if you avoid the two worst MVP bets on the board entering the season.
MVP voters love a sophomore leap, and Jayden Daniels had an argument as a top-five MVP candidate already last season. But everything went right for the Commanders, including a crazy outlier 20-of-23 fourth-down conversion rate and any number of miracle late wins.
Washington's roster around Daniels just isn't good enough. The offensive line is in flux, the skill positions are lacking and the defense isn't talented enough and rapidly aging.
Daniels will no doubt have MVP moments, but he's almost too valuable to a team that will be over-reliant on him doing everything to make up for all its other flaws. His play style and body type make him a huge injury risk at all times as well.
And then there's Joe Burrow.
Books are treating this like a clear top four, and Burrow belongs in that tier of quarterbacks but he does not belong in that group of MVP candidates — because this is a team award, not an individual one.
Burrow played MVP ball last season, and he has a serious path to 5,000 yards and/or 50 TDs throwing to Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But this is more than a statistical award, and the rest of the roster around Burrow and the receivers just isn't good enough.
The Bengals' offensive line, defense and coaching staff all rank near the bottom of the league, and that makes a path to 13 wins and a top-two seed highly unlikely.
An MVP bet on Burrow is actually a bet on this offensive line, a bet on Zac Taylor and a bet on new DC Al Golden getting this defense to at least league average somehow — and even that probably isn't enough to win the division, let alone conference.
This is just not the profile of an MVP, and it's certainly not the right price to place Burrow and his lackluster teammates at +600, right on par with the three rightful favorites.
An MVP bet on Burrow might sound fun, but it is also willful ignorance of Burrow's teammates and what wins this award.
Tier 3 — Path to 1-seed + Enough Reputation
Brock Purdy, 49ers +3000 (DraftKings)
Jordan Love, Packers +2000 (DraftKings)
Jalen Hurts, Eagles +2000 (FanDuel)
C.J. Stroud, Texans +2500 (any book)
We're down to seven serious MVP candidates now, with Burrow and Daniels both around 3% likely to win, roughly equal to the field of non-QB candidates and nowhere near commensurate the price available at books.
This group is still a relative long shot at 4-to-6%, but with odds that would imply around +1800 to +2500, we're in range now.
C.J. Stroud is the guy I called the worst MVP bet on the board last season when he was everyone's favorite sleeper; he was DOA and didn't even crack the top 20 or 25 in most advanced QB metrics.
Now is a chance to buy low on a Texans team with an elite defense and special teams that could be as good as any team if the offense can find itself under new OC Nick Caley.
Stroud will have a chance to pile up easy wins and stats in the AFC South games, and he'll have big MVP moment possibilities with games against the AFC big three. He has a stud go-to guy in Nico Collins, and he's already getting some buzz with more on his plate this season calling protections at the line and taking more control.
The truth is, though, that you want your MVP sleeper to come from the NFC — the conference where they don't have to beat out Mahomes, Jackson, Allen and their three elite teams.
Jalen Hurts has to get a mention since the Eagles look like the class of the NFC, plus he just earned respect with a Super Bowl MVP. However, he didn't even crack 3,000 yards or 20 TDs as a passer last season. Tush-Push TDs only go so far, and it's tough for Hurts to get enough credit when he plays with the league's best skill players and offensive line.
Hurts may have to pass more this season if Philadelphia's defense drops off. That may seem good on the surface, but more Hurts passing stats likely mean a worse Eagles season, given his inconsistencies and struggles under pressure. Hurts likely already missed his best MVP shot in 2022.
The buzzy sleeper right now is Jordan Love, with his odds dropping from +2500 to +2000 or below at books after the Micah Parsons trade.
The truth is that Love was already MVP-caliber before the trade, but the Parsons addition adds in an easy narrative and boosts Green Bay's defense into the top 10, helping Love's overall win profile.
Green Bay ranked bottom three in pass rate, neutral pass rate and pass rate over expectation last season, and its passing TD percentage also plummeted. That's because Love missed time and played hurt, so Matt LaFleur adjusted. But Love still paces to 4,000/30 both seasons and the production should be there for one of the NFC favorites.
The mistakes and interceptions could be a problem if Love makes some of those wonky erratic plays at the wrong time with a bigger spotlight, but I make Love better than 50/50 to win an MVP eventually. The Parsons trade makes him a top-five contender.
But the 49ers are still my top NFC team, and that means Brock Purdy is the best contender from this list, especially at +3000.
Purdy was in the mix two years ago before injuries derailed San Francisco's season, but he may have actually earned a modicum of respect with his play last season. With lesser weapons and less help around him, Purdy might actually get some credit.
The numbers and advanced metrics will be there in a Kyle Shanahan system — Purdy led the league in both EPA and EPA + CPOE in 2023, and he's over a 5% TD rate and almost 9.0 yards per attempt for his career.
There's also an obvious narrative in play for a guy who was Mr. Irrelevant as the last pick in the draft. Did Purdy take another leap? Is he a top-10 QB now?
If the 49ers stay healthy and win big, Purdy will be in the conversation. He's implied 3.2% at +3000, and you can make a case he should be closer to double that. He's our first bet — but our best bet.
Tier 2 — Always In the Mix, But Not Their Year?
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs +700 (DraftKings)
Josh Allen, Bills +650 (ESPN Bet)
We're down to three names, and it's the guys who've won the last three MVPs.
Sorry if that's boring, but we're interested in winning bets, not telling stories.
Heck, you'd be perfectly merited to just bet all three of these guys together at implied +143 versus the field and just be done with it. I'll take these three vs. the field any day, let alone at plus odds.
I can't rule out Josh Allen, but he's the toughest sell of the three.
Voters mostly never pick back-to-back MVP winners — you almost have to beat the rest of the field and yourself, and Allen still hasn't won everyone over with that big playoff run either. Last year, Allen had the "it's his year" sentiment; what's the story this season?
Allen's presence alone makes the Bills offense elite and Buffalo a top contender, but offensive coordinator Joe Brady's power run scheme limits his numbers and the overall team profile is slightly down with key losses in defense and a lack of standout skill players. Buffalo is my least likely AFC favorite to win its division thanks to New England, and also the least likely one to be the 1-seed.
While he cut down on mistakes last year, Allen was lucky with turnovers — one throwback mistake game could blow it at any time. He also plays Baltimore in Week 1 so he could lose a head-to-head MVP battle immediately — though the schedule softens immediately after.
Patrick Mahomes has the more obvious narrative of the two, with the potential of a "he's still got it" season bouncing back after a couple of relative down regular seasons and the ugly Super Bowl loss.
Mahomes has question marks too, though. This is the least certain offensive line he's had entering a season, and he too is lacking great weapons, especially with Rashee Rice out to start the season against a pretty rough schedule.
There's also a question of how much the defense will hold up, and whether OC Matt Nagy may be holding the offense back.
Mahomes is the best player on the planet, so I'll never begrudge a bet on him at +700. He's coming off a 15-1 season as a starter so the path to the 1-seed is always there.
The problem is that expectations are so high for Mahomes that it's impossible for him to impress anymore. The guy went 15-1 last season with a number of crazy late wins and didn't even finish top five in MVP voting. He could bump his stats by 1,000 yards and 10 TDs and still fall short of his early career numbers. The bar is so high that Mahomes can really only disappoint at this point.
In some ways, Mahomes might have quietly become the Josh Allen candidate from a few years ago — he's almost too valuable for his own good, with the roster somewhat faltering around him.
With the Eagles, Ravens and Lions the first six weeks, it's hard to recommend investing in Mahomes MVP stock right now — especially when there's one clear favorite on the board for me.
Tier 1 — The MVP Bet You Should Make Right Now
Lamar Jackson, Ravens +550 (DraftKings/BetRivers/Caesars)
The Ravens have the most complete team in football, and I'm not sure it's even close.
Heading into the season, I ranked every NFL team 1-to-32 at quarterback, skill positions, offensive line, coaching, offense, defense and special teams — and Baltimore ranked top seven in every single category!
While every other top Super Bowl contender got a bit worse, Baltimore may have gotten even better with its additions to the secondary, making that one of the best units in the league. The Ravens also didn't lose key coaches over the offseason for once, and we already know their offense can lap the field under OC Todd Monken, while DC Zach Orr's defense found itself late last season.
And then there's Jackson, who is now a firmly established "as-long-as-he's-healthy" perennial MVP candidate. Jackson has never lost more than five games in a season and he's proven he has the advanced metrics in addition to the ever-present flash and stats; his abilities as a runner also seem to scramble voters' brains so that even a potential dip in passing stats may not matter. Likewise his ongoing fumbling problem, when only interceptions seem to count front of mind.
There's also a very easy Jackson narrative.
True, he's yet to make that big playoff run, but there's also ubiquitous sentiment that Jackson was "robbed" of this award last year. That's a column for another day, but if Jackson and the Ravens lap the field again, voters will make no mistake about it this time around.
At the end of the day — and I can't believe I of all people am writing this — Jackson might simply be the age-old MVP formula: the best player on the best team in the regular season.
The Ravens have a tough schedule from the jump with the Bills, Lions, Chiefs and Texans all in the first five weeks, so I understand if you want to wait. But I have Baltimore a full field goal to the spread ahead of every other NFL team, so if the Ravens are really that good and win those games anyway, we'll never get another chance to invest.
We know the MVP formula now, and Jackson fits it to a T.
I make Jackson at least 30% to win MVP, possibly higher. That would imply pricing in the range of+175 to +225, and I couldn't price him any longer than +300. That means we're still getting incredible value at +550.
In the end, this is one of the easier MVP bets I've made heading into the season.
It was always Lamar Jackson.
NFL MVP Best Bets
- Lamar Jackson +550 (1 unit)
- Brock Purdy +3000 (0.25 units)
