Welcome back to the Pick Six.
Early each week, we look ahead at the upcoming NFL slate and parlay six moneylines that "should" win — at least on paper — in the week to come.
It's a quick, early look at the upcoming Week 15 games, and like any good pick-six, we'll wrap up with my Extra Point, one more thing you need to know and a future to bet as we flip the NFL calendar to another new week.
Week 15 is a bit of an odd slate, with six coin-flippy games at a field goal spread or less and six other favorites over a touchdown. We're playing five of those six big favorites, along with one underdog, to juice that underdog moneyline and go for the kill.
Our Week 15 moneyline parlay has odds of +525 at FanDuel as of publishing. Let's get to the NFL picks!
NFL Week 15 Parlay Picks
Eagles Moneyline
Raiders vs Eagles, Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Look, let's just acknowledge up front: we're betting five big favorites this week, so we may not need to belabor these picks.
Late Sunday, Nov. 23, the Eagles were leading the Cowboys 21-0 and appeared to be coasting toward an essentially division-clinching win and a possible NFC one-seed. Instead, barely two weeks later, they're on a three-game losing streak, and the sky is falling.
The Raiders are the perfect antidote.
Las Vegas is dead last in PPG at 15.1. The Raiders backdoored their way to a measly 17 points last week, and it was their highest total since the start of November. Now they face an Eagles defense that's figured things out in a big way, and they might be lucky to score double digits, considering they've only topped 10 points in 62% of their games this season.
Philadelphia is elite against tight ends and should be able to contain Brock Bowers. The Eagles play a ton of light boxes, but the Raiders have been dreadful running the ball and are the worst in the league by EPA against light box defenses. Their offensive line has no shot.
Will the Eagles score? They'll score enough.
It doesn't have to be pretty. Just get the W.
Texans Moneyline
Cardinals vs Texans, Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
The Cardinals have a bevy of competitive one-score losses this season, but they've also lost by 22+ points three times in the last month to the 49ers, Seahawks, and Rams.
The Texans may not have the offense those teams have to match a monster scoring margin, but it's clear that this version of Arizona cannot hang with the NFL's big boys.
Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson have been fun surprises for fantasy managers, but this insanely pass-heavy attack is all wrong against the league's finest pass defense.
Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter will be able to pin their ears back and get after the QB play after play against a faltering, injured line, and that could get ugly for Brissett. Arizona uses a ton of play-action and short passes, and the Texans rank first in EPA per play against both.
This line does feel a touch high at Texans -9.5, a full touchdown up from where it was before the season, but it would be crazy to expect Houston to back down now at home against a bad team after it just rolled through the Bills, Colts, and Chiefs.
Bears Moneyline
Browns vs Bears, Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET
Shedeur Sanders has been … not terrible! Maybe even good against the Titans, and this Bears defense isn't exactly out of 1985.
Add that to the Browns defense, and that might leave room for worry against a Bears team that would lose exactly this sort of freebie game at any point in the last two decades on the cusp of a playoff berth.
I trust this Bears team to be different under Ben Johnson. Johnson's offense sometimes starts slow but consistently finds answers along the way, top 10 by Offensive DVOA in the second half after ranking nearly the opposite in the first half.
Cleveland's defense rates better early in games, and it's been far better at home. The unit simply hasn't been the same on the road for years now, and the Bears have enough ways to score for a win.
Chicago is running the ball as well as any team, and Caleb Williams' improved pocket presence behind what's become a great line will be huge against Myles Garrett and company.
Chicago has also been the league's most explosive offense for much of the season, and while Cleveland does well on defense, it's been around league average at limiting explosive plays.
The Bears are the much better team, and if they find a couple of big plays along the way, too, this should be a wrap.
49ers Moneyline
Titans vs 49ers, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Again, I never promised these games would be interesting.
The Titans have had a brutal schedule. Tennessee has played 10 games already against teams currently in the top eight in either conference, aka the top half of the league. The Titans are 0-10 in those games, with an average margin of defeat of 14.9 points, over half of those being 14+ losses.
Tennessee is 2-1 in all other games! It just never gets to play teams in the bottom half of the league, and it won't Sunday either as the rested 49ers host them off a bye week.
San Francisco's last five wins have all been by double digits, and this was a badly needed rest week for a team that's been crushed by injuries on both sides of the ball. It could be especially big for Brock Purdy, who definitely didn't look healthy in his last few games but likely benefited from a couple of weeks off.
The 49ers offense is by far the best unit in this game, particularly the passing attack. San Francisco should find plenty of room to score, and a Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD feels like practically a free space against a defense that's bled RB touchdowns all season.
There are better games to watch and bet on Sunday, but we can throw a Niners win into our sure-things parlay.
Seahawks Moneyline
Colts vs Seahawks, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
The story of this game is whoever ends up playing quarterback for the Colts.
Will Notre Dame rookie Riley Leonard play through a knee injury and make his first NFL start in place of the injured Daniel Jones? Or will it be 44-year-old grandfather Philip Rivers returning to football for the first time since the COVID season, when his final game came against Mike Glennon, Dare Ogunbowale, and Chris Conley for the 1-15 Jaguars?
Whoever takes the field for the Colts is going to have their hands full on the road against this nasty Mike MacDonald defense that's been incredible all year, getting after the quarterback, especially with RT Braden Smith injured.
The Colts haven't topped 20 points in any of their three games since the bye, so it's hard to imagine this offense suddenly finding answers now without a QB. Seattle leads the league in EPA per play against the run, and Jonathan Taylor has slowed down badly since his incredible start, so someone is going to have to make some throws to beat this defense.
The injuries are piling up for Indianapolis. The Colts are also missing arguably their three best defenders, corners Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward and tackle DeForest Buckner. Seattle has averaged 32.0 PPG in its 10 wins, half of them by 22+points.
The line on this game is wild, pushing two full touchdowns, all the way up from Seahawks -3.5 on Sunday morning.
That's a bit steep, but there's still value in adding this moneyline to boost our parlay price.
Cinderella stories are great, but it's tough to see Rivers or Leonard getting the win on the road in Seattle in their debut.
Lions Moneyline
Lions vs Rams, Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
And now we come to our big upset pick in this week's Pick Six, priced around +200 at most books but effectively boosted to north of +500 with the assistance of those five big favorites in our parlay.
So why the Lions? It starts with the stakes for this game. They're simply much, much higher for Detroit.
The Rams are pushing for the NFC one-seed, but you'll forgive them if they already have their eyes on a much more important game to come four days after this one, as L.A. heads to Seattle for what might be the most significant game of the season.
If the Rams win in Seattle, they're 90% to win the division, per The Athletic, regardless of this Detroit game. Win out after a win in Seattle, beating Atlanta and Arizona, and L.A. is 95% to clinch the one-seed — again, regardless of a Lions result.
This game doesn't matter that much for L.A. A win would be a bonus, especially against old friend Jared Goff, but it matters much more to Detroit.
The Lions are just trying to get into the postseason, and stealing this one would go a long way toward giving them a shot at the playoffs. Detroit sits at 40% to make the playoffs at the moment, but moves to 90% if they win this game and either beat Chicago in Week 18 or sweep Pittsburgh and Minnesota in between.
Lose this one and the Lions drop to around 30% to make the playoffs, effectively needing to win out and get help over those final three games to squeeze in.
This matters a bit more to Detroit, which means the Lions will play and coach more aggressively, and they'll do so with extra rest, with everything on the line, as opposed to a Rams team just trying to get to Thursday healthy. That stuff matters.
These are both outstanding teams, each of them in the top five by DVOA on both offense and defense. The Rams' offense is the standout unit, though their special teams is by far the weakest.
There's a world where Matthew Stafford puts up another MVP performance against his old team, a reeling secondary missing its top three players. In the last three games against the Lions, Sean McVay has relentlessly attacked this man-heavy defense with his go-to receiver — the Rams WR1 has averaged 11 catches for 149 yards in those games.
But the Lions won two of the three anyway, and this team stacks up stylistically like other teams that have given the Rams problems.
LA's losses this season have come against the Eagles, 49ers, and Panthers — three teams with physical, bruising rushing attacks that can control the clock and keep Stafford and this offense on the sidelines. The Rams also barely got past the Colts and Seahawks, two more teams that fit that bill.
That's Lions football, running the ball and biting kneecaps. That's how Dan Campbell wants his team to live.
Detroit's secondary got lit up by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last Thursday, too, but the Lions won comfortably anyway. If Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery attack all game on the ground, can the Rams defense keep up? LA's defensive front is built around small, speedy pass rushers. The Rams have struggled against bigger, more physical teams.
If those pass rushers do get pressure on Jared Goff, the numbers suggest that it will be a big problem for Detroit. But if Goff can get the ball out quickly or keep handing it off to his runners, Detroit can play Lions football and follow the underdog script to victory.
The preseason line for this game was Lions -1.5. It's now Rams -5.5, a full touchdown in LA's direction — and the total has raised just as much. Are the Rams really a full touchdown better than the Lions now compared to what we expected coming into the season?
Detroit needs this more than L.A. The Rams are the better team, but the Lions have matchup advantages to exploit, and we'll build our Pick Six around maximizing the payout on a shock Lions victory.
Anderson's Extra Point
When Daniel Jones tore his Achilles on Sunday, the Colts' hopes for the season seemed to go up in flames.
Along with them, Jonathan Taylor's resumed Offensive Player of the Year stock. Taylor leads the league in rushing yards (1,356) and TDs (16) and has been the odds-on OPOY favorite for weeks, but is coming off a third straight quiet game, all losses, and he's no longer even top-two in odds.
Taylor's absence has pushed the market whole hog toward Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who's had an outstanding season, albeit with a lack of the usual sort of high-end volume that typically accompanies an OPOY receiver season.
JSN scored twice Sunday but has only caught nine balls for 123 yards the last two games combined, and his production is trending in the wrong direction. So is Puka Nacua's, whose numbers are nowhere closeto what he was doing early in the season since his snap count has dropped precipitously with LA's move toward heavy 13 personnel.
If Taylor really is out of the race, I wonder if the real OPOY value could be slightly further down the board with a previous winner: Christian McCaffrey.
McCaffrey is on pace for 1,110 rushing yards and 1,054 receiving yards.
Only three players in NFL history have posted 1,000 yards receiving and rushing in the same season. McCaffrey is one of them, and all three guys were future OPOY winners. No one has ever posted 1,050 yards in each category — McCaffrey would be the first.
McCaffrey has at least 100 scrimmage yards in all but three games this season, and one of those misses was by four yards. He has a real chance to lead the league in both rushing attempts and receptions, a remarkable, unmatched feat.
Consider the fact that, as awesome as Taylor has been all season, he's currently a whopping five scrimmage yards ahead of McCaffrey for the year, 1,660 to 1,655. Those 1,655 scrimmage yards are almost 200 more than JSN's 1,464, and Smith-Njibga is just four receptions ahead of McCaffrey.
McCaffrey may not be the best runner in football, nor the best receiver, but he's pretty close to the best in both somehow, all at the same time.
Christian McCaffrey is the NFL Shohei Ohtani.
Unlike the other top contenders, McCaffrey also has a soft closing schedule. He could drop a monster game on the Titans this week — would two or three touchdowns surprise you? — and the Colts and Bears up next look gettable too.
A matchup against Seattle in the finale will be more challenging, but the Seahawks allow the second-most receptions to opposing RBs, and McCaffrey caught nine balls for 73 yards in the first meeting, one of his best receiving games of the season. That game could also act as a head-to-head opportunity for CMC to make his case against JSN in the season finale.
If you don't think McCaffrey gets to OPOY even with a 1000-1000 season, you can bet on just 1000+ receiving yards at +200 (FanDuel).
I still think OPOY is in play in a suddenly open field.
Give McCaffrey a shot at +2500 (FanDuel) and let's see if NFL Shohei Ohtani can make a push.
