Awards Week continues, and today I'm digging into the 2025 NFL Coach of the Year odds and my picks.
This is a unique award, much more about narrative than just winning games. It's not about who the best coach in football is — otherwise Bill Belichick would've won year after year.
Instead, it's coaches who surprise and have a story to tell.
Kevin O'Connell took the Vikings from 7-10 to 13-4 and the brink of the 1-seed last season despite playing it with veteran backup QB Sam Darnold, and that helped him win Coach of the Year (COY).
In 2023, Kevin Stefanski used five different starting quarterbacks en route to a playoff berth, and Brian Daboll's Giants leapt from four to nine wins in his first season in New York.
So who will win Coach of the Year in 2025? Let's build a winning historical profile, narrow the field from 32 to 10, and count all the way down to the two names you need to bet.
NFL Coach of the Year Predictions
Past Coach of the Year Winners
Let's take a look at the last 10 Coach of the Year winners and see what trends we can spot:
- 2024, Kevin O'Connell (MIN): 7-10 to 13-4 playoff team starting backup Sam Darnold
- 2023, Kevin Stefanski (CLE): 7-10 to 11-6 playoff team starting five different QBs
- 2022, Brian Daboll (NYG): Improved from 4-13 to 9-7-1 as first-year coach
- 2021, Mike Vrabel (TEN): Improved from 11-5 to 12-5 and 1-seed division winner
- 2020, Kevin Stefanski (CLE): 6-10 to 11-5 as first-year coach division winner
- 2019, John Harbaugh (BAL): 10-6 to 14-2 and 1-seed division winner
- 2018, Matt Nagy (CHI): 5-11 to 12-4 as first-year coach division winner
- 2017, Sean McVay (LAR): 4-12 to 11-5 as first-year coach division winner
- 2016, Jason Garrett (DAL): 4-12 to 13-3 and 1-seed division winner
- 2015, Ron Rivera (CAR): 7-8-1 to 15-1 and 1-seed division winner
1. The Coach of the Year has to win a lot of games.
Um … duh.
This is a team award, and teams need to win for voters to care. COY teams won an average of 12.2 games over the past decade, closer to 13 at the 17-game pace. All but Daboll won at least 11.
Six of them also won the division, and nearly half won enough to earn a first-round bye.
Winning reigns supreme, as always.
2. It's not just about winning — Coaches of the Year must improve from last season.
Every single one of our 10 COYs improved upon their team's previous campaign — most by a lot.
The average COY team won a whopping 5.8 games more than the previous season, improving from 6.6 wins to 12.4 the following year — almost double! In a 17-game schedule, that's about the equivalent of jumping from 7-9 to 13-4!
All but one of the last 10 COYs improved by at least four wins over the previous year's finish, with a median improvement of seven wins. That's a lot of improvement!
That means the teams that already won 11 or more games last year are effectively out of the running. Eight of our last 10 COYs' teams won between four and seven games the previous season.
3. Coaches of the Year outperform expectations.
But it's not just about winning, or even improving. There's a narrative portion of this award. Voters want a coach from a team that surprises them.
One easy way to measure expectations is using team win totals. All but two COYs since 2010 won at least 2.5 games above their posted win total, 10 of the 15 by at least 4.5 wins over expected!
The average win total coming into the season for these COYs was 8.8 (projected to 17 games), with eight of the last 10 starting somewhere between 7.5 and 9.5 expected wins — and none of them above that range.
These were teams no one knew what to expect from, with win totals floating around .500, that went on to outperform expectations — usually by a bunch.
So what are we looking for in a Coach of the Year?
We need a coach who wins a lot, way more than last year, and they need to outperform their win total expectations. We'd love a team that won 4-7 games last season and is expected to push .500 but instead leaps to 12+ wins and a playoff berth.
A few other notes we should keep in mind…
- The last 10 consecutive COYs all started the year at +1800 or longer, so this doesn't usually go to the favorite.
- Four of the last eight COYs were first-year coaches on their team, along with six of the last 14 — about half.
- Seven of the last nine COYs were offensive-minded, fitting the direction the game is headed.
We've only got 32 possible winners, but let's narrow down the field further.
No Repeat Winners Allowed
Kevin O'Connell, Vikings
Kevin Stefanski, Browns
Brian Daboll, Giants
John Harbaugh, Ravens
Sean McVay, Rams
Bill Belichick, Ron Rivera and Kevin Stefanski are the only coaches this century to win Coach of the Year twice for the same franchise.
We just don't see many repeat winners — it's tough to impress when you've already done the thing there.
Just like that, five names off the list.
Expectations Already Too High
Kyle Shanahan, 49ers
Sean McDermott, Bills
Zac Taylor, Bengals
Jim Harbaugh, Chargers
Andy Reid, Chiefs
Nick Sirianni, Eagles
Dan Campbell, Lions
We just ruled out nearly a quarter of our options — great coaches! — with a quick wave of the hand.
Most of these coaches already have a posted win total of 10 or higher, and none of our recent COYs started with a win total that high — only one was even at nine.
Most of these guys also coach teams loaded with talent, especially at QB, who would get as much or more credit as the coach for a great season.
It doesn't mean these guys can't win, but they don't fit our profile.
Let's narrow the field a bit further.
Five More Easy Names to Cross Out
Todd Bowles, Buccaneers
Dan Quinn, Commanders
Aaron Glenn, Jets
Kellen Moore, Saints
Brian Callahan, Titans
The Bucs and Commanders made the playoffs last year, won double-digit games, and open the new season with a win total at 9.5.
That's not quite out of bounds for our profile, but unless you think one of these teams wins 14 or 15 games, they don't quite fit.
The Saints, Jets and Titans have no such problem with expectations, but at 4.5 and 5.5, their win totals reflect a reality we should probably accept — that the rosters are so bad that even an improved year likely still falls short of .500 or the playoffs.
You can be too bad, too. History says that's just too low a starting point.
Over half the league is out!
Let's Cut Five More and Get Our Field to 10
Shane Steichen, Colts
Mike McDaniel, Dolphins
Matt LaFleur, Packers
Mike Macdonald, Seahawks
Mike Tomlin, Steelers
Listen, these guys could definitely win Coach of the Year, but we've got to whittle the field.
All five of these teams won at least eight games last year, and all five have win totals right around .500 so they're all teams folks expect to be on the fringe of the playoff picture.
History says we likely need 12 wins — and in the case of teams like the Seahawks (10), Steelers (10), or Packers (11), who already won so many games last year, maybe 13 or even 14 wins.
I can't get there.
The Colts have won at least eight both Steichen years and get a bad division, but they don't have a QB or a great path to 12 wins. The Dolphins have won at least eight in all three McDaniel years but maxed out at 11, even when healthy. The Seahawks should have a great defense but are my 27th-ranked offense and play in a brutal division.
Tomlin and LaFleur are especially tough to rule out since both are such good coaches, but that also means voters already expect greatness.
Tomlin's never won this award somehow so a lifetime achievement thing makes sense, but history says he'd probably need 13 wins and a push for the AFC 1-seed. LaFleur might need a 14-3 season in an absolutely stacked division, and even if he gets there, Jordan Love might get an MVP push instead.
If you want to make a case for any of those five, I won't stop you. But our historical criteria has narrowed the field to our 10 best options, so let's count them down in reverse order.
Our Final 10 COY Candidates
10. Raheem Morris, Falcons +3300
The Falcons won eight games last year and have a win total of 8.5 for the upcoming season — Atlanta would likely need to win 12 or 13 games.
That's probably not out of the realm in the awful NFC South, where all four teams rank bottom 10 in the NFL for me — but that includes the Falcons, whose defense is terrible and whose offense is built around a dominant offensive line now short two of its top three run blockers from last year.
Would Atlanta even get much credit for winning 12 in that division? Would Morris, more of a defensive guy, get credit when it would probably be Zac Robinson's offense carrying the day and guys like Bijan Robinson and Drake London putting up big seasons?
With awards, you always want to tell a story. If everything goes right for this player or team, what happened, and how do we reward it?
Raheem Morris doesn't have the right story.
9. Sean Payton, Broncos +2000
Sean Payton certainly feels like he'd be the story if the Broncos take another leap.
They already won 10, so they'd almost certainly need 13 or 14 wins and probably even a division crown to get there, presumably on the backs of an elite defense and another step forward from Bo Nix.
Nix is not going to step into MVP consideration this year, and Payton would have toppled the mighty Chiefs.
If you like Denver, this probably isn't a bad way to invest this season. I'm not interested.
8. Dave Canales, Panthers +1600
Panthers Island took on water early for us last year and we went down with the ship.
The team did pull things together late though, and Bryce Young finally found his footing. What if Young takes another step forward with a steady run game and a new No. 1 target in rookie WR Tet McMillan?
That sounds great and all, but this team won five games last year and still might have the worst defense in the league.
Canales would get full credit for turning Young into a quality QB, but can he really get this roster to 11 or 12 wins? Feels like a bridge too far.
7. Jonathan Gannon, Cardinals +1400
All the hipsters seem to be into the Cardinals this year.
Both the offense and defense appear to be trending up — helps when things were so dire a few years ago — and Arizona would certainly feel like a surprise division winner if it got to 12 or 13 wins and stole the crowded NFC West.
Would enough voters see it happen? That's a fair question, and there are assistant coaches and maybe even a sneaky MVP candidate in Kyler Murray who might get some credit, but the Cardinals look like a playoff contender and this is not a bad way to invest in Arizona if you're interested.
6. Liam Coen, Jaguars +1200
I really expected to be in on the Jaguars this season.
Liam Coen was magic as the Bucs' playcaller a season ago, constantly scheming WRs open and creating a run game out of nothing. Give him to Trevor Lawrence and voila — magic!
If only life were so easy. It's not the same calling plays while also holding head-coach responsibilities, and this is the greenest staff in the league with precious little veteran help.
Jacksonville may also have something approaching a bottom-five offensive line and defense that will hold the team back.
The AFC South keeps the door open here, and we love a first-year coach, but it feels like Coen can have a successful year and elevate Lawrence and this offense but still end up around 7-9 wins, well short of what he'd likely need here.
5. ???
4. ???
Bear with me here for a minute. We'll get to these two names in a second — and they're our two bets.
But first I need to tell you why we're not betting one of the three most likely winners, none of whom should come as a real surprise.
3. Pete Carroll, Raiders +1600
2. Mike Vrabel, Patriots +800
1. Ben Johnson, Bears +700
These three are such obvious, easy Coach of the Year candidates that I barely feel like I even need to make the pitch.
All are first-year coaches — check! — for a team that won only four or five games last season — check again! — with win-total expectations around .500 this season. All three are hot coaching names that take over for teams with an obvious, clear path to improvement. Bullseye!
The Raiders rank last of the three because Pete Carroll inherits what looks like a possible league-worst defense, and a win total at only 6.5 shows how far Las Vegas has to come.
Everybody loves Mike Vrabel, and the Patriots added a ton of floor-raising talent and should take a huge leap if Drake Maye takes the next step.
I like the Patriots to make the playoffs, and that's not even that long a number. New England has a potential top-10 defense and plenty of bounce-back potential.
And then there's Ben Johnson and the Bears.
Everybody loves Chicago and I'm already on Bears Island as my worst-to-first division winner. How much easier of a pick is there for a first-year guy everyone's waited years to get his own team, now with a No. 1 pick QB in Caleb Williams along with a remade potential top-five offensive line and a possible top-10 defense?
The media might fall all over itself to crown Ben Johnson.
In a world where we didn't have to bet prices, this trio would likely be my picks for the year. I like these guys, and I like their teams! We all agree their teams will likely improve.
But that might be just the problem.
There was a small footnote above in our profile — did you catch it? Every Coach of the Year the last decade started the year at +1800 or longer. Why is that happening?
Well, it turns out there might be one more secret criterion: coaches might have to surprise even our baked-in improvement expectations.
If everyone already expects the Bears and Patriots to push for nine wins and the playoffs, then it's hardly even impressive when they do it. They'd practically have to win 13 or 14 to really blow expectations out of the water.
That's not impossible, but therein lies another problem. There's so much parity in the NFL that there are around five coaches every season with legitimate cases for Coach of the Year as one of that season's surprise breakout teams — look what first-year coaches Jim Harbaugh and Dan Quinn did last year, or Sean Payton with the Broncos.
That trio combined for two COY winner votes, and none of them cracked the top three.
Even if you get your sleeper right, you still have to luck into the right narrative and win a plurality against a few others with similar cases. And that means it just doesn't make sense to bet even the right favorites at such short odds like +700. Can't do it.
So that brings us back to the two guys we're betting, rounding out my top five favorites…
My 2025 Coach of the Year Best Bets
5. Brian Schottenheimer, Cowboys +3000
I honestly can't believe we got here.
Literally two weeks ago, I wrote up the NFL coaching staff rankings for the new season, and I ranked Schottenheimer and his staff dead last at 32nd.
Now I'm backing him for COY?!
Sometimes in gambling, it can be smart to bet against yourself.
Sure you have beliefs and reads, but what if you're wrong about a team? Why would you be wrong — and what would it look like if you're really wrong?
What if Schottenheimer is a decent or even good head coach? What if he puts together an innovative offense and utilizes exciting young names on his staff like Klayton Adams and Ken Dorsey? What if Matt Eberflus puts a talented defense back together?
Dallas won 12 games in three straight seasons before cratering last year, and Schottenheimer certainly didn't feel like an inspired hire — but that's why we're getting this first-year coach with a perfect COY setup for a huge discounted price at +3000.
The Cowboys may or may not still be America's Team, but if Dallas gets a healthy Dak Prescott and Micah Parsons out there and immediately starts winning again, everyone will notice.
I don't totally believe in this roster but it's hard to deny the talent — but I hate the coaching and that makes everything else moot.
What if Schottenheimer's staff is good? Dallas could easily push for a division crown and then the sky's the limit in the NFC.
This is a contrarian bet against myself. It's a great way to invest in the Cowboys this season at a supremely discounted price.
4. DeMeco Ryans, Texans +6500
Surprise!
If you're reading with a sharp eye, you might have been wondering why the Texans weren't in one of the early categories of teams ruled out.
You'd have a good case. The Texans won 10 and the division plus a playoff game in each of the past two seasons, so the floor on expectations is already high. Houston would likely need to win 13 or 14 games and push for the AFC 1-seed.
What if I told you that's totally in play?
Last fall, everyone went too far with Houston and projected the Texans at their ceiling — now it feels like many are just accepting them at their floor. Houston's offense was incredibly disappointing last season, and the offensive line looks like the worst in the league.
But what if new OC Nick Caley finds some answers and creates a run game behind a below-average-but-not-terrible line? What if that instills renewed confidence in C.J. Stroud and he has a huge season with Nico Collins and a new, healthy stable of receivers?
The Texans are my No. 1 defense heading into the season, and they're also my top special teams unit under expert coach Frank Ross. Even projecting the offense as below average, Houston is still a top-seven team in my rankings. But if that offense is good — call it top 10 — Houston is suddenly a top-three team and a threat to win the AFC 1-seed.
Suddenly that soft AFC South looks like a path to six easy wins and a leg up on the rest of the AFC, and the Texans will control their destiny with games against Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, and a defense that's played brilliantly against the league's best.
If Houston does push to the top of the AFC, DeMeco Ryans will get credit for the defense and could even get this as something of a career achievement award for the three-year arc of a team that won just three games in 2022.
Ryans is certainly a longer shot, but he's also a great way to invest in a post-hype Texans team that's quietly become a bit underrated and overlooked.
He's my top Coach of the Year bet at +6500 (DraftKings).
The Verdict
For years, books got the preseason Coach of the Year odds all wrong, routinely listing obvious great coaches like Belichick, Reid and Tomlin as the early favorites.
Unfortunately, they've finally caught up with the type of coach that typically wins this award, and that's robbed the market of much of its value.
Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel and Pete Carroll would be my top picks for COY in a world without odds, but their numbers at open do not have betting value.
Instead, I'm swerving with two long shots in a market where the entire last decade of winners has started the season at +1800 or longer, playing contrarian to even my own beliefs and wondering what if everything goes right for a couple teams in Texas.
I love the case for DeMeco Ryans as Coach of the Year and think he's badly mispriced at +6500, enough so that I'll place a full unit on him.
I added a small second bet on Brian Schottenheimer in case I'm wrong about everything and the Cowboys bounce right back to the top of the league with a great coaching boost.
Coach of the Year Best Bets
- DeMeco Ryans +6500 (1 unit)
- Brian Schottenheimer +3000 (0.25 unit)
