Ligue 1 Odds, Picks & Predictions for Monaco vs. PSG (Friday, Nov. 20)
FRANCK FIFE/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Paris Saint-Germain’s French forward Kylian Mbappe.
- PSG heads to Monaco Friday for a looking to remain hot in Ligue 1 competetion.
- Neymar and Kylian Mbappe are both expected to be back for PSG.
- B.J. Cunningham previews the match and gives his favorite betting pick.
Monaco vs. PSG Odds
|Monaco odds||+425 [Bet Now]|
|PSG odds||-210 [Bet Now]|
|Draw||+400 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-107/-117) [Bet Now]|
|Time||Friday, 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||beIN Sports|
The newest rivalry in France gets renewed on Friday when PSG heads to the south of France to take on Monaco.
PSG is a top the Ligue 1 standings and on an absolute tear at the moment, winning their last eight matches domestically. However, they’ve had a really easy schedule over those seven matches, as they’ve only faced one team inside the top seven in those eight matches.
Monaco is looking to return to European competition after a couple of down years. So far this season, its been a tale of two stories, because they’ve been great at home, but terrible on the road. They’ve lost four of the last five to PSG, so they’ll be looking to enact some revenge on the defending champions.
Monaco was a lot better than results showed last season and the same can be said about the 2020-21 campaign. They finished the 2019-20 campaign with the third-best expected goal differential in Ligue 1 and so far this season have the fourth best expected goal differential at +7.47. They’ve also been really good at home, accumulating 11.29 expected points (via understat.com) and a +7.59.
Outside of PSG, matches involving Monaco have seen the most expected goals at 3.14 per match over the last two years. That high number of goals has led to 47% of their matches going over 3.5 goals. In fact, the last five matches against PSG four or more goals have been scored.
The French giants lost their first two matches in Ligue 1, but they have been on a path of destruction since then, winning eight matches in a row by a combined score of 26-1.
PSG matches typically feature an abundance of scoring chances. Dating back to the beginning of last season, games featuring PSG are averaging 3.71 expected goals and 45% of The Parisians’ contests have gone over 3.5 goals.
PSG has been going through an injury crisis over the last few weeks, but will receive a big boost going into the match against Monaco. Kylian Mbappe featured for France over the international break, so he is likely to return to PSG’s lineup.
In addition to Mbappe, it looks like Neymar could make his return to lineup after missing the last few weeks with a groin injury. If PSG is able to get their best two strikers back, we should see plenty of goals from the French champions.
Projections and Pick
This is a meeting between two highest scoring teams in France, so I think we’ll see a ton of goals on Friday afternoon. The positive news of Neymar and Mbappe’s return to the lineup as seen PSG jump from -158 to -195 on DraftKings. However, the total hasn’t seen much of an increase. Therefore, I think there is good value on Over 3.5 goals at -114 (DraftKings).
Pick: Over 3.5 goals (-114)