Serie A Odds & Picks: How to Bet Parma vs. Bologna (Sunday, July 12)

Credit:

Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Rodrigo Palacio of Bologna FC.

Parma vs. Bologna Odds & Pick

Parma odds +180 [BET NOW]
Bologna odds +155 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +230 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-124/+100)
[BET NOW]
Time Sunday at 1:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Saturday 5 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


A battle of the middle of the table takes place in Serie A’s featured TV game  as Parma hosts Bologna. Both teams are coming off 2-1 losses during the week and realistically do not have much to play for in this game.

Parma and Bologna have an outside shot at a Europa League spot, but it will take an incredible run to end the season to achieve European football next season.

Parma

I Crociati is one of the more overrated team in Serie A based on expected points. According to their expected goals differential, Parma should actually be in 16th place. The difference between their actual results, versus their expected results is truly stunning

Goals For Goals Against
Actual 42 42
Expected 34.94 53.08

Parma has been in a bad run of form since the restart earning only four points in their last six matches. They’ve been completely outplayed in those matches losing the expected goals battle 14.76 to 7.56. In fact, they’ve been so poor defensively that they’ve allowed more than two expected goals in five of their last six matches.

I Crociati has also been extremely poor at the Stadio Ennio Tardini as of late, losing their last four matches. In those four matches, they’ve been poor at both ends of the pitch losing on average by 0.64 xG per match (1.22 xGF, 1.86 xGA).

Bologna

Bologna has been one of the best road teams in Serie A this season. I Rossoblù rank inside the top five in expected goal for, expected goals against, and expected goal differential. In fact, they’ve been on fire winning as of late, winning four of their last five matches.

Based on expected goals, I Rossoblù has been a tad unlucky this season, as they boast a +7.95 expected goal differential, which is a lot higher than their actual goal differential of -5. Some positive regression is bound to keep coming Bologna’s way and playing against an overrated Parma side might just do the trick.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Analysis

Based on my model I think the current line on DraftKings for Bologna provides a lot of value:

  • Parma projected odds: +268 (27.19% win probability)
  • Bologna projected odds: +108 (48.11%)
  • Draw projected odds: +305 (24.70%)
  • Parma projected xG: 1.17
  • Bologna projected xG: 1.61

Based on my projections, I am going to back the away side to get at least a draw from this match.

Pick: Bologna Draw No Bet (-122)
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