Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal Odds, Picks, Preview: Exciting Opportunity to Bet the Over in Wednesday Premier League Play (May 19)
Marc Atkins/Getty Images. Pictured: Arsenal standout Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang walks past manager Mikel Arteta.
- Arsenal makes the trip to Selhurst Park for Wednesday's Premier League match against Crystal Palace.
- Neither side has a whole lot to play for at this point, which could lead to little motivation for both outfits.
- Anthony Dabbundo explains below why he thinks we're going to see plenty of goals in this meeting.
Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal Odds
|Crystal Palace Odds||+450|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-122 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated Wednesday morning via DraftKings.|
Crystal Palace’s win against Aston Villa on Sunday was a perfect encapsulation of an underlying late-season Premier League trend. When teams have little to play for, games open up, shots increase and more goals are usually scored.
Sometimes, the market prices this in or even overcompensates for it. However, as Arsenal hits the road Wednesday to take on London rival Crystal Palace, the number is still too low.
As much as Arsenal has struggled in the league, the club has had plenty of attacking prowess against some of the league’s worst defenses. Crystal Palace’s defensive metrics have fallen off a cliff, much like it did at the end of last season.
This has the makings of a wide-open attacking affair, but it’s not being priced that way.
Crystal Palace Does Just Enough to Stay Up
Crystal Palace continues to scrap just enough points to remain safe in the league despite terrible squad construction and underlying numbers. The Eagles have done it again this year under manager Roy Hodgson, who will be departing the club at the end of the campaign.
This makes Crystal Palace’s last two games even less meaningful, as the players know that this manager won’t be evaluating them for next season and there’s nothing to build from once the new gaffer comes in.
Fans are returning to Selhurst Park for their final home game of the season as well, which should increase the intensity and create a high-flying environment.
On the field, Crystal Palace’s defense has been a sieve in recent weeks. Only Sheffield United, Leeds United and West Bromwich Albion have allowed more expected goals all year. Sheffield United is the only team not to create at least 1.0 expected goals against this Crystal Palace side since the start of April.
The attack has really struggled to produce much of anything during that same time, ranking fourth lowest in expected goals. However, that includes a dire period early in April against elite defenses and has since bounced back to normal output since the club has faced foes like Southampton and Aston Villa with nothing on the line.
Offensive Woes Have Plagued Arsenal
Arsenal’s last six weeks have featured less total passes in the penalty areas than any other team in the league. Its defense has prevented entries into their box, while the attack has struggled to progress the ball into the area and create chances.
In other words, plenty of passing and midfield action, but few scoring chances. However, this is as good a spot as any for that to change. The Gunners allowed 1.8 xGA to West Brom and Chelsea in the last few weeks, and only conceded one total goal. Since April began, Arsenal has allowed three goals from nearly six expected goals. Its defense has been good, but not this good.
Regression is coming and the shot numbers allowed are pretty much the same from earlier in the season, so the process that leads to chances hasn’t really changed for me to believe the Gunners’ recent defensive form is sustainable.
As for its attack, Arsenal has shown an ability to break down some of the league’s worst defenses, which Crystal Palace is part of. When it faced Burnley, West Brom, Sheffield United and Fulham in the last two months, the club either scored multiple goals or created 2+ xG in every game.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Arsenal overs have typically required defensive errors or flukes to get in and cash this year, because the club’s attack has been so anemic at times .
However, this is a great spot to hop on an over, because Crystal Palace is unlikely to offer much resistance through the midfield, but can hit Arsenal on the counter.
The result will likely be periods of Arsenal possession play, followed by quick-strike Crystal Palace counters through Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke.
Both teams get on the board in this game and Arsenal finds a second to hit the over in what should be a wide-open match.
Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-140 or better)
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