2019 US Open Quarterfinals Betting Preview: Nadal vs. Schwartzman, Berrettini vs. Monfils
Geoff Burke, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Rafa Nadal
One semifinal on the ATP side of the draw is set; as world No. 5 Daniil Medvedev will face former world No. 3 Grigor Dimitrov — who upset current world No. 3 Roger Federer as a +800 underdog on Tuesday night.
On Wednesday, four players will battle to play in the semifinal on the bottom half of the men’s singles draw – with Gael Monfils and Rafael Nadal listed by oddsmakers as the favorites to advance.
This is the ninth career appearance in a slam quarterfinal for Monfils, and he is just 2-6 in those previous matchups; only making the semifinals previously at the 2008 French Open and the 2016 US Open.
Meanwhile, this is the ninth quarterfinal that Nadal has reached at the US Open alone. Rafa is 7-1 to date in this round, with his only loss coming against Mikhail Youzhny in 2006; and he’s won this tournament outright three times (2010, 2013, 2017).
After two moneyline upsets on Tuesday, will Wednesday see chalk or can either Matteo Berrettini or Diego Schwartzman make their first slam semi-final?
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Wednesday ATP Bets
Matteo Berrettini vs. Gael Monfils (-200) | O/U: 40.0
- Time: 1:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium
- H2H: First meeting
All odds via PointsBet and current as of 8 a.m. ET.
Save for a rousing five-setter against a better-than-ever Denis Shapovalov, Monfils has been largely untested in this tournament; winning each of his other three matches in straight sets.
Meanwhile, Matteo Berrettini entered the US Open having played (and lost) just one match since Wimbledon; but he has stormed through his quarter after opening the tournament as an underdog against Richard Gasquet.
Berrettini followed up that win with two four-set victories against a pair of Australians — Jordan Thompson and Alexei Popyrin — before impressively dispatching of an in-form Andrey Rublev in straight sets.
This is a matchup between power hitter and counter-puncher, with Berrettini’s big serve and forehand, against Monfils’ retrieval skills sure to prove magnetic.
The Frenchman’s body is often his own worst enemy; as Monfils frequently makes it to the later stages of tournaments only to withdraw due to injury.
Surely Monfils will relish this opportunity, however — knowing that he will only have to defeat one of the big three (Nadal) in order to finally win his first slam.
He appears healthy and fully engaged, and though he has faced lesser competition through four matches his stats still best those of his Italian opponent:
Berrettini has raised his return level in this tournament, but it’s probably still not enough to get him past the Frenchman.
That being said, he might have the advantage in tiebreaks, with a 12-9 record in deciders on hardcourts this season (20-13 overall). Conversely, Monfils is 8-14 in hardcourt tiebreaks, and 12-17 on all surfaces.
I would make Monfils a -200 favorite in this matchup, but I’ll back him to win in four sets or less at even money.
The Pick: Gael Monfils -1.5 Sets (+100)
Diego Schwartzman vs. Rafael Nadal (-1600) | O/U: 31.5
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Arthur Ashe Stadium
- H2H: Nadal leads 7-0
The head-to-head history clearly favors the Spaniard, who is now the clear favorite to win his fourth US Open with Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer each losing prematurely.
I have a ticket on Nadal to win his quarter (-150), which he would clinch here with a win over Schwartzman, and another on Nadal to win the tournament (+400), but my betting approach for this match will not differ from how I would normally play it.
Schwartzman has broken serve more than 45% of the time in his four matches, but Nadal’s defensive style presents major issues for the undersized Argentinian.
Schwartzman has advanced comfortably at the US Open and recently won the Los Cabos Open by being a more sound ball-striker than his opponents. He didn’t beat Alexander Zverev in his last match, so much as Zverev beat himself (17 double faults).
Schwartzman was the only player to win a set off of Nadal at the 2018 French Open, and the pair also went four sets at the 2018 Australian Open; but Nadal got his revenge recently in defending his Rogers Cup title, dispatching the smaller man in three and two.
Nadal and Schwartzman have played 19 sets, and Nadal has won 11 of those sets by three games or more. They have only played two tiebreaks.
As the price on Nadal -2.5 sets is a bit steep (-160), and considering that he can win in straight sets but fail to cover the spread of -8 games, I’m going to take a stab at under 31.5 games; which would still cover (even though the -8 spread wouldn’t) in, for example, a 7-6, 6-3, 6-3 win.
Bets (So Far) for September 4
Odds, especially live odds, swing quicker in tennis than in any other sport, so stay tuned on Twitter for my entire Tennis betting card for Wednesday, September 4.
- Gael Monfils -1.5 Sets (+100)
- Nadal / Schwartzman, Under 31.5 Games (-110)