The rivalry between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner isn't going away soon. Despite losing to the Spaniard in Cincinnati, Sinner remains atop the odds board to win the US Open.
Fortunately, his retirement was due to illness, and the Italian confirmed he will be at full strength by the time the last Grand Slam of the year begins.
The field is broader among women, but Iga Swiatek keeps winning and is challenging Aryna Sabalenka for the top spot in the odds.
After her first Wimbledon title, there is no surface on which you can rule out Swiatek. Coco Gauff, the reigning Roland Garros champion, is also in the mix.
So, which players have the best US Open odds?
Let's dig into this markets at Kalshi, which operates more like the stock market than a traditional sportsbook.
US Open Odds (Men's)
After beating Alcaraz in four sets last month to claim his first Wimbledon title, Sinner looked like the runaway favorite to also lift the trophy in Flushing Meadows.
However, the World No. 1 lost five straight games to the Spaniard and couldn't finish the opening set of the Cincinnati final this week, retiring due to illness.
Regardless, his dominance on hard courts will keep him atop the list of favorites for this tournament, and Sinner will look to make it back-to-back titles after winning the 2024 US Open.
Alcaraz, of course, is right behind him. He is regarded as probably the only player on the tour who can beat Sinner right now.
Novak Djokovic is a distant third. Although his chances of getting his 25th Grand Slam title look slimmer as time goes by and Sinner and Alcaraz get better, he remains a force to be reckoned with and is currently priced third at Kalshi.
Players who perform well on hard courts, such as Jack Draper, Taylor Fritz (last year's finalist), and Ben Shelton, are seen as darkhorses.
Wimbledon Odds (Women's)
Aryna Sabalenka, the World No. 1 and a specialist on hard courts, is still considered the top option among women, but after three crushing Grand Slam losses this year, support appears to be wavering.
Sabalenka lost the Australian Open final to Madison Keys, then performed poorly against Coco Gauff in the decisive match at Roland Garros, and was eliminated at the hands of Amanda Anisimova in the Wimbledon semifinals.
Iga Swiatek was the eventual winner in London, and her stock keeps rising. She won the Cincinnati Open this week and is just a percentage point below Sabalenka in Kalshi's market.
Gauff, who shockingly lost in the opening round at Wimbledon, is priced as the third likeliest option.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in all 50 states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
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