2021 U.S. Open Odds Update: Longshots Continue to Advance on Men’s Side

2021 U.S. Open Odds Update: Longshots Continue to Advance on Men’s Side article feature image
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Credit: Matthew Stockman, Getty. Daniil Medvedev asks the crowd for support at the 2021 US Open.

As we head into the second week of the U.S. Open, let’s take a step back. The 2021 iteration of the tournament has been absolute mayhem on the men’s side, with only six seeded players remaining out of the top 16.

Exactly halfway through the tournament, four players have booked a spot in the quarterfinals, while four fourth round matchups remain.

Let’s take a look at who’s out, who’s left, and how oddsmakers rate their chances.

Player Current Odds Opening Odds
Novak Djokovic -140 -140
Daniil Medvedev +225 +400
Alexander Zverev +500 +600
Matteo Berrettini 33-1 20-1
Carlos Alcaraz 33-1 100-1
Felix Auger-Aliassime 33-1 50-1
Jannik Sinner 50-1 33-1
Reilly Opelka 100-1 150-1
Lloyd Harris 150-1 N/A
Jenson Brooksby 250-1 N/A
Oscar Otte 500-1 N/A
Botic van de Zandschulp 500-1 N/A

Odds via PointsBet.

Who’s Out

3) Stefanos Tsitsipas (Opened +900)

The No. 3 seed had the fourth-shortest odds to win the tournament when it started, but he fell out of contention in stunning fashion at the hands of teenage sensation Carlos Alcaraz. In a thrilling five-set match, the Spaniard broke through in a final set tiebreaker to advance to the fourth round.

5) Andrey Rublev (Opened 28-1)

Russian Andrey Rublev was another fifth set victim in the third round. His loss came at the hands of American Frances Tiafoe, who had been playing some of the best tennis of his life at the U.S. Open. It was a disappointing loss for Rublev, who had high hopes for 2021 but didn’t get past the quarters of any slam.

7) Denis Shapovalov (Opened 40-1)

Coming off of a standout Wimbledon run in which he reached the semifinals, Denis Shapovalov looked to be on his way to a similar result through the first two rounds, failing to drop a set and hitting the ball really well. In the third round, though, he looked completely lost against Lloyd Harris, as the Canadian can be prone to at times.

8) Casper Ruud (Opened 90-1)

A player that doesn’t love being on hard courts, expectations weren’t that high for Casper Ruud. Nevertheless, the Norwegian bowed out in underwhelming fashion with a loss to Botic van de Zandschulp, a qualifier who is currently in the quarterfinals.

9) Pablo Carreno Busta (Opened 80-1)

If anyone is going to have a bad taste in their mouth after this tournament, PCB may be the player with the worst of it. The Spaniard had a comfortable 2-set lead against American qualifier Maxime Cressy before he let it slip and gave up a 6-3 fifth-set tiebreak lead to fall in the first round. A 2020 semifinal performance was probably the ceiling for Carreno Busta, but this was not a loss he expected.

10) Hubert Hurkacz (Opened 60-1)

It’s been an incredibly streaky year for Hubert Hurkacz. He’ll likely be pleased with his results on the year, but plenty of success was left out there. Del Ray Open and Miami Open titles were followed up by a miserable clay season, and now a Wimbledon semifinal berth was followed up by a demoralizing second round loss to Andreas Seppi.

11) Diego Schwartzman (Opened 125-1)

The Argentine is another player that fell at the hands of van de Zandschulp. BVZ took Diego out in the fourth round, becoming the third qualifier to make the QFs of the Open. The Dutchman was a +350 underdog against Schwartzman.

14) Alex de Minaur (Opened 100-1)

Australian Alex de Minaur has had a bit of a perplexing 2021, so his first round loss to Taylor Fritz wasn’t too much of a shock. He only earned a lone win in the summer hard court swing, a three set victory against Filip Krajinovic in Cincinnati.

15) Grigor Dimitrov (Opened 90-1)

Former semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov faced a really tough Alexei Popyrin in the second round, and the Australian took out Dimitrov, who had to retire in the third set due to injuries. Popyrin was thoroughly outplaying the Bulgarian before his retirement, but it will be a tough loss for Dimitrov to swallow nonetheless.

16) Cristian Garin (Opened 150-1)

Chilean Cristian Garin is as much of a clay court specialist as you’ll find on tour. No player’s results are more varied on and off the surface than Garin’s, so his second round loss to Henri Laaksonen isn’t the worst result in the world. The circumstances behind it will be frustrating for Garin, as he was up a set, but Laaksonen’s level was just too solid.

Who’s Left

1) Novak Djokovic (-140)

Of course, the heavy favorite for the tournament remains Djokovic, who has absolutely dominated the tour in 2021. The world No. 1 hasn’t looked unplayable, with a set dropped in rounds 1 and 3, to Holger Rune and Kei Nishikori respectively, but there are plenty of reasons to believe in Djokovic.

He set the tone for the season with a dismantling of Daniil Medvedev in the Australian Open final, and he’s since taken the French Open and Wimbledon titles. Djokovic is going to be tough to beat — that’s obvious — but the pressure of aiming to pull off a calendar grand slam may weigh on him, and it’ll be an interesting storyline to follow.

2) Daniil Medvedev (+225)

The aforementioned Medvedev has his hands full with the task of trying to win his first slam, but his projected draw will make him feel a bit better. The Russian has van de Zandschulp in the quarters before a potential meeting with Auger Aliassime or Alcaraz in the semifinals. It will feel like a major let down if Medvedev doesn’t reach the final.

4) Alexander Zverev (+500)

Perhaps the player that is in the best form of anyone on tour, Alex Zverev is still looking for a breakthrough grand slam title, but this is one of the best chances he’s had to complete the task, despite a downright daunting draw.

To reach the final, he’ll have to get through a projected sequence of Sinner, Opelka, Djokovic and Medvedev. Yikes. Zverev will back himself in each matchup though, particularly in the first two, as he’s on a 14-match winning streak that includes titles in the Olympics and Cincinnati Masters. He beat possible opponent Djokovic in Tokyo.

6) Matteo Berrettini (33-1)

The big hitting Italian passed a major test in the third round, getting through Ilya Ivashka in five sets. Though the Belarusian was unseeded, he had just won the Winston-Salem Open title and was playing the tennis of his life. It’s a victory that will give Berrettini a ton of confidence, and it could help him mightily in a quarterfinal with Djokovic. To get there, he’ll have to beat German Oscar Otte, a qualifier who has secured the best slam result of his life in New York.

12) Felix Auger-Aliassime (33-1)

What a moment this could be for the young Canadian, who played one of the best matches of his career against Frances Tiafoe on Sunday to reach the QFs. Auger-Aliassime has a chance to better his result in that round at Wimbledon with a win against Alcaraz, before likely having to deal with Medvedev.

13) Jannik Sinner (50-1)

Like the other Italian left in the draw, Sinner’s odds have lengthened despite his efforts in the tournament thus far. It’s likely because he has the aforementioned Zverev draw to the final, which could include Opelka, Djokovic and Medvedev. Sinner has had his struggles thus far, but has managed to gut out wins despite dropping at least a set in each round.

22) Reilly Opelka (100-1)

Undoubtedly one of the breakthrough players of the year, Opelka has established himself as a player capable of playing consistent tennis on a big stage, and that makes him incredibly dangerous. If he is able to get through Harris in the fourth round, he is going to make life really uncomfortable for his next opponent. Despite this, his price reflects the style of tennis he plays. If Opelka is having a bad day, he is doomed without much of a plan B.

Carlos Alcaraz (33-1)

The 18-year-old Alcaraz has been a fan-favorite of the event, notching an upset win over Tsitsipas and carrying his momentum through to the QFs. He has a legitimate chance to keep the run going against Auger-Aliassime, and the way he’s playing, no one is doubting his chances.

Lloyd Harris (100-1)

South African Harris has a big serve and a big forehand to back it up. He has the weapons to compete with most players, and much like Opelka, he could make life difficult for a player like Zverev if Harris is able to take out the American and reach the quarters.

Jenson Brooksby (250-1)

All Jenson Brooksby does is win. The 20-year-old American wasn’t known to the casual fan before this tournament, but that has changed. Brooksby is a grinder who competes at the highest level and puts every ounce of his body on the line in every match. He’s consistent as it gets and has a chance to get the upset of the tournament against Djokovic in the fourth round.

Oscar Otte (500-1)

The U.S. Open is already by far the best tournament of Oscar Otte’s life thus far, as he hasn’t made it past the second round of any other slam to this point. He faces Berrettini in the fourth round on Monday to better his result even further.

Botic van de Zandschulp (500-1)

Much like Otte, van de Zandschulp hadn’t made it past the second round in any slam prior to this event, but he’s making the most of his chance with wins against Ruud and Schwartzman, among others. He has a tough task ahead of him in the form of Medvedev, but at this point, anything he gets is a bonus.

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