2020 Corales Puntacana Championship Picks: Our Favorite Outright Bets, Longshots, Matchups and Betting Props
Sam Greenwood, Getty Images. Pictured: Sepp Straka
- Looking to keep your golf betting rolling for the 2020 Corales Puntacana Championship? Our staff breaks down their favorite bets.
- From outrights at the top of the odds board to longshots, matchups and more, we've got you covered for this weekend's PGA TOUR event.
Last week, Dustin Johnson was the outright favorite a tournament that included Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Rory McIlroy and was won by Bryson DeChambeau.
This week, Corey Conners, Will Zalatoris and MacKenzie Hughes are co-favorites in a field that is headlined by Henrik Stenson.
To casual fans, this week’s tournament may not jump off the page, but here at GolfBet we love each PGA TOUR event equally because we know that the money you win on Adam Schenk is just as green as the scratch you win on Collin Morikawa.
Here are our favorite outright bets, sleeper picks, props and matchups for the 2020 Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship:
Sepp Straka (+4000)
I listed Sam Burns as my favorite outright play in my original preview column this week, but as I wrote in my follow-up piece, sometimes keeping an open mind helps form new opinions, so while I still like the LSU product, I’m going to go with a Georgia guy here in Straka. He owns a nice record playing in the PGA TOUR’s tropical locales and posted a T-14 to start the season two weeks ago at the Safeway Open.
Pat Perez (+3300)
“The Prince of Paspalum” is a perfect fit for Corales.
Perez has been excellent on seaside paspalum courses with two of his three PGA TOUR wins taking place on similar courses (2016 OHL at Mayakoba and 2017 CIMB Classic at Kuala Lumpur). He also has some recent success at these tracks including a T8 at Mayakoba in 2019 and a 6th in 2018.
Seaside paspalum is a unique surface on TOUR and Perez has been a staple on the leaderboard in just about every event where it is featured. The Strokes Gained metrics also indicated that Perez is a paspalum specialist (2.559 Strokes Gained:paspalum vs 1.474 Strokes Gained:total).
After winning the CIMB Classic at Kuala Lumpur in 2017 he stated: “It’s actually not even the course that suits my eye, it’s the greens. Mayakoba, where I won, has the same greens and I putted better than anybody there, too. So I don’t know what it is. It’s the grass.”
Perez has shown some life recently finishing T9 at the Safeway Open and has gained strokes tee-to-green in his past three starts. His excellent course fit and flashes of form recently make him an intriguing bet to win this week.
Sam Burns (+2000)
I thought we might see Sam Burns finally break through two weeks ago at the Safeway Open. He looked great after 36 holes, holding a 4-shot lead, and while he squandered that lead over the weekend, it’s still a matter of when, not if Burns wins on TOUR.
The former LSU Tiger has shown an ability to contend at lower scoring, weaker field events like is expected this week as he finished 7th at Safeway, 13th at Wyndham, and 6th at the AmEx. He also has prior history at Corales with a solid 12th place finish at this event last year.
The setup this week, combined with his form coming in, make Burns a great pick for his maiden victory.
Rob Oppenheim (+12500)
Yet another guy who tends to play well at alternate-field events — and yes, I know there’s nothing opposite this one, but it still feels like it fits the bill, considering the strength of field.
Oppenheim contended in his 2019-20 season finale at the Wyndham Championship before finishing T-15 and had a nice week at the Safeway, as well. He also thanked me for picking him as a sleeper this week. If that’s not good karma, I don’t know what is.
Anirban Lahiri (+12500)
I am sticking with the seaside paspalum theme which leads me to strongly considering Anirban Lahiri.
Lahiri hasn’t won on the PGA TOUR but he has a couple of wins on the Asian Tour (which features many of the same style courses with paspalum fairways and greens), including the Malaysian Open which was played at TPC Kuala Lumpur, which also hosts the CIMB Classic.
Lahiri has posted some good results at the CIMB, including in 2016 when he had the 54-hole lead but finished in third behind Justin Thomas and Hidedki Matsuyama. Luckily for Anirban, players of JT and Deki’s caliber won’t be in attendance this week.
The other course I found to be a corollary course to Corales is El Camaleón Golf Club which hosts the OHL Classic at Mayakoba. Lahiri has shown up on the Mayakoba leaderboard with a 10th-place finish in 2018 and 14th-place finish in 2017.
When he is playing well, Lahiri’s ability to make birdies and putt well on paspalum should give him a reasonable chance to contend at Corales.
J.J. Spaun (+12500)
I wait until I see J.J. Spaun flash some form before giving him any consideration in any betting market. He’s a streaky player in both directions, and he showed a glimmer of hope at the Safeway Open.
That is really putting it lightly, as Spaun played really well on his way to a ninth-place finish. He gained more than 8 shots tee-to-green in that event, including 5.1 strokes gained on approach. While he hasn’t played this tournament before, he has played well on similar courses, most notably a third-place finish two years ago at the Mayakoba Classic.
Spaun is certainly a longshot to get his first TOUR victory as the price suggests, but there are enough positives to reasonably see him in contention this weekend.
Will Zalatoris Top-5, Top-10, Top-20
Might as well just load up on the Korn Ferry star, who finished an impressive T-6 at Winged Foot last week.
Zalatoris hasn’t finished outside the top-20 anywhere since February and even though he might be gassed following the U.S. Open grindfest, he should be motivated by the fact that a special week could get him onto the PGA TOUR earlier than next year.
Akshay Bhatia Top-10 Finish (+1000)
I am a huge believer in Akshay Bhatia’s potential to become a star on the PGA TOUR. The smooth-swinging lefty has enormous raw talent and has achieved many of the highly regarded amateur accolades. He made a big bet on himself when deciding to not play collegiate golf and turn pro at the age of 17.
We saw Bhatia’s talent come through at the Safeway Open where he finished T9. The former top-ranked junior player in the world has a lot to play for and is looking to earn points and exemptions to qualify for future tournaments.
I will also be betting him outright as we likely won’t be seeing those types of odds on Bhatia for very long.
Will Gordon Top-10 Finish (+800)
We saw the potential that Will Gordon has shortly after the restart of the PGA TOUR season this summer when he finished third at the Travelers. He’s been up and down since that event, but he is too talented in this field for the odds being offered.
Gordon is extremely long off the tee and will be able to use that to his advantage around Corales to give himself opportunities to score. As you can see from my picks this week, I see it as an event for some of the younger players to have a chance to break through, and Gordon fits that mold well.
Sam Burns (-110) over Charles Howell III
As mentioned in my preview, I do like Burns this week and this is a way to invest in him.
Howell is a steady dude, obviously, but coming off four rounds at the U.S. Open, I’ll take the guy who’s fresher and, honestly, playing better, with a pair of top-15 finishes in two of his last three starts.
Pat Perez (-110) over Denny McCarthy
For all of the same reasons I am picking Pat Perez to win this week, I am high on his matchup odds against McCarthy. I fully expect Perez to be in contention this week and I don’t believe McCarthy has the ability to play well enough tee-to-green to make a move on the leaderboard.
I think this is a great time to sell high on McCarthy as he has been striking it well but don’t see him doing that on a consistent basis for the long term.
Thomas Detry (-110) over Matthias Schwab
I nearly wrote up Detry in every pick category this week, so to be fair, I like him across the board. He has shown great form on the European Tour with two second-place finishes in his last five events overseas, both of which were lower scoring birdie-fests like is expected at Corales.
We finally got to see him in the states last week at the U.S. Open where he was in contention for a Top-20 type of finish going into Sunday, but really fell apart with a final round 81 to finish 49th.
That final round doesn’t cause me enough pause in a straight-up matchup like this with Matthias Schwab who has just one Top-25 finish on any tour this year and has missed the cut in three of his last five tournaments.
Fire up Detry in this matchup, but don’t be afraid to also sprinkle some on him outright, Top-5, and Top-10.