Updated 2022 BMW Championship Odds & 7 Picks for Cameron Young, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Cameron Young (left) and Jon Rahm.
Click arrow to expand 2022 BMW Championship odds via BetRivers
2022 BMW Championship Odds
|Varner III, Harold||+9000|
|Si Woo Kim||+10000|
And then there were 70.
We’ve reached the penultimate event of the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season with the 2022 BMW Championship. Only 30 players will remain active next week, when East Lake in Atlanta takes center stage for the Tour Championship.
Normally, whoever wins the first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs has a commanding lead entering the second tournament, but that isn’t necessarily the case because of the huge advantage Scottie Scheffler had entering the playoffs. Still, Will Zalatoris has a slight edge over the world No. 1, who missed the cut at the FedEx St. Jude.
This week, Wilmington Country Club will play host to the world’s best, who will face a par-71 that measures over 7,500 yards.
Our GolfBet staff has scoured the odds board this week and identified its best bets for this week. Check them out below.
2022 BMW Championship Picks
Sungjae Im — Top 5 (+350)
Jason Sobel: After a pair of runner-up results at the 3M and Rocket Mortgage, Im “only” finished 12th last week. But it’s clear he’s playing some very solid golf right now.
A third-place finish at Caves Valley last year proves he can go low on a long, mid-Atlantic track, so Wilmington could be right up his alley.
I don’t mind sprinkling a bit on him for outrights, as well.
Landon Silinsky: Im’s last three starts have produced a pair of runner-up finishes, as well as a T12 last week. In this timeframe, he’s the No. 1 driver of the golf ball on TOUR, gaining .3 strokes more per round than the next closest guy (Matt Fitzpatrick).
In addition to the elite driving, Im has been putting the ball great as well, sitting 10th in that department in this three tournament stretch.
Wilmington is incredibly long and possesses huge greens, so driving and putting are the two skills most conducive to winning this week. Im is priced more appropriately than he was last week, but he’s absolutely still a value at 22/1.
Chris Murphy: I continue to go to Max Homa in this spot because he continues to be one of the best values on the board each week.
The unique thing about Homa is that he is a multi-time winner on TOUR – including two wins this season – but he keeps getting placed at odds longer than some players who are still seeking their first victory.
The reason is that Homa will often finish outside of the top 40 – like he did last week – when he doesn’t have his best stuff, so we don’t get the consistent top finishes that come from some of the other names further up the leaderboard.
The great thing about betting outrights is that you’re betting them to win and everything short of that rates out to the same $0 return. Homa has shown the ability to peak and to close when he has his game. This is also a course that appears set to play to his ball-striking strengths and will allow him to use his length to his advantage.
I’ll happily take +5000 in a 68-player field on Homa, who, to me, has the best combination of betting value and upside leading into this event.
Matt Vincenzi: I am all in on Rory McIlroy this week. It’s rare for me to ignore most of the board and put all of my chips on the favorite, but I believe the BMW Championship is one of the few events on TOUR where it’s the most logical strategy.
The FedEx Cup Playoffs typically yield elite winners, and I don’t anticipate that this week will be any different. Specifically, the last three winners of the BMW Championship have been Patrick Cantlay (who defeated Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff), Jon Rahm (who defeated Dustin Johnson in a playoff) and Justin Thomas.
All five of the players who have either won or had a chance to win in the last three editions of the event have been big-name stars.
There are plenty of weeks during the course of the season to chase value, but this isn’t one of those weeks.
McIlroy missed the cut at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. For many players on TOUR, that could be a concern.
But not for Rory.
Three of McIlroy’s past eight victories on TOUR have come after a missed cut in his previous start. He won the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitation after missing the cut at the Valspar Championship, the 2019 Canadian Open after missing the cut at the Memorial Tournament, and the 2021 Wells Fargo after missing the cut at the Masters.
In addition to his wins after missed cuts, the 21-time TOUR winner has three top-six finishes after a missed cut. It may not seem like that many, but for a player who has only missed 10 cuts since the start of the 2018 season, it’s significant sample size.
While this is a new course on TOUR, the fit for McIlroy at Wilmington Country Club seems ideal. Rory has been excellent on Robert Trent Jones designs and typically plays well on tree-lined classical layouts. He’s also been one of the best putters on Bentgrass this season and ranks third in the field in his past 24 rounds putting on the surface.
In addition to the incredible putting of late, McIlroy also ranks fifth in the field in his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Approach. He’s gained strokes on the field in nine consecutive events, and that should prove to be a major advantage this week with the greens at Wilmington Country Club being absolutely massive.
With six of the past seven BMW Championships having a winning score of -20 or better, I believe this week will be another low-scoring affair. The 33-year-old ranks first in the field in Birdie or Better, and should be able to keep up with the scoring pace if the event turns into a shootout.
It’s been a month since Rory’s heartbreak at St. Andrews, and I believe this is the week he bounces back and adds to his all-time lead in FedEx Cup career earnings.
Joshua Perry: Young opened as high as +3500 before dipping down. He’ll be popular for a few reasons. His ball striking was great last week, but his putter didn’t show up. He’s not normally a bad putter, so it’s easier to move past a poor showing on the greens.
He’s also one of the best drivers on TOUR, and the large greens at this course could help hide his irons, which can be mediocre at times.
Jon Rahm +1400 (BetRivers)
Derek Farnsworth: First off: Willy Z! What a way to get your first PGA TOUR win.
This is not a week to expect a longshot winner. We saw Keegan Bradley break through with a playoff win a few years back, but he’s really the only longshot winner we have seen in this event.
I was tempted to run it back with Will Zalatoris this week, since we’ve already seen three similar-caliber players win back-to-back this season (Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau). However, Zalatoris has the same odds as Rahm.
This season might suggest otherwise, but I still view Rahm and Rory McIlroy as the best golfers in the world.
Rahm may have been a disappointment in the majors, but he can save his season by winning the FedEx Cup. Something tells me cashing an $18 million check will help him feel a lot better heading into the offseason.
He seems to be in a great place off the course, and that often translates to success on the course. He quietly put together a top-five finish at TPC Southwind, where he gained eight strokes tee-to-green. That was his best outing since his win in Mexico.
We don’t know exactly how Wilmington Country Club is going to play, but Rahm checks a lot of boxes for me when it comes to the comps I could drum up for this week. He’s top-four in this field in strokes gained on bentgrass courses, in strokes gained on courses longer than 7,400 yards and in no-cut events.
I get the feeling he’s going to rattle off two wins over the next two weeks, so I have to be there for the first one.
Viktor Hovland +3000 (DraftKings)
Bryan Berryman: With 11 players listed at +2000 or less, we’ll need to go a little further down the board to find some value in the outright markets this week. Sitting at +3000, we find Viktor Hovland, who sets up perfectly for the South Course at Wilmington Country Club.
This course is a bear. The par-71 layout measures at over 7,500 yards and has 4-inch thick rough waiting for any missed fairway. We’re going to want to target elite drivers of the ball this week who are both long and straight off the tee. Hovland absolutely checks that box, averaging 309 yards and hitting 65% of his fairways over the last calendar year.
Another unique aspect of this course is the monstrous greens. Measuring on average around 8,100 square feet, they are nearly double the size of the greens that these guys played on last week in Memphis. This should really play to Hovland’s benefit, since his Achilles heel has been his putrid around-the-green game. The larger greens should limit the amount of shots that he’ll have to play from the weakest part of his game.
Finally, after a brutal stretch through the middle of the season, it appears Hovland has righted the ship. He followed up his impressive fourth-place finish at the Open Championship last month with a top-20 finish last week in Memphis.
With the form trending in the right direction, and the course tailoring to his strengths, I like Hovland’s chances to win this week in Delaware.