2022 PLAYERS Championship Betting Report: Public Loves Collin Morikawa, Fading Will Zalatoris & Dustin Johnson at TPC Sawgrass
Photo y Sam Greenwood/Getty Images. Pictured: Collin Morikawa
Collin Morikawa is finally getting his due from sportsbooks as one of the elite golfers on the PGA TOUR, and the short numbers haven’t slowed down the betting public from backing him.
Morikawa is the most popular bet of the week, popping up as the most-bet golfer at THE PLAYERS across multiple sportsbooks.
The No. 2-ranked player in the world, Morikawa is just behind favorite Jon Rahm at PointsBet and DraftKings and is tied with him at FanDuel after sitting as the favorite on Monday. But he’s not taking a back seat to hardly anyone in terms of popularity.
He’s the most-bet golfer at the SuperBook in Las Vegas as well as Caesars. He’s taken the most money in the outright market at PointsBet and is top-four at FanDuel.
And rightfully so. Morikawa has two top-five finishes in his two starts on the PGA TOUR in 2022. His elite iron play makes him a course fit at TPC Sawgrass. Plus, Rahm hasn’t looked like the Rahm whom bettors are used to seeing in recent weeks.
Morikawa is the consensus pick by the public, but don’t forget Brooks Koepka, who is the most popular play at FanDuel and PointsBet.
While the public is supporting Morikawa, SuperBook VP of risk management and golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman noted sharp action a little further down the board.
Sherman adjusted Daniel Berger down to +2500 after sharps hit him in all markets early. The last time we saw Berger, he appeared set to run away with the Honda Classic before a final round 74 left him in fourth.
Sherman noted respected action on Billy Horschel (+5000) and Corey Conners (+6000), as well.
As far as fades go, sharps are fading Will Zalatoris in a matchup against Sungjae Im and Paul Casey against Sergio Garcia. But the biggest name seeing little support and bets against is Dustin Johnson.
Johnson, who is +3500, hasn’t played since the Genesis Invitational, which was supposed to be one of his most comfortable courses on tour. But DJ missed the cut — and wasn’t particularly close.
“If he can’t perform at one of his best courses and hasn’t had a strong performance in a while, bettors don’t see any positives to support him at all,” Sherman said.
There’s been modest interest on two players in the spotlight at last week’s Arnold Palmer in Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland, although McIlroy is the most popular first-round leader bet at FanDuel.
The largest outright bet as of Wednesday afternoon at SuperBook was on Gary Woodland, who held the API lead with two holes to play.
Sherman himself is on Jon Rahm and Hideki Matsuyama and picked off longer odds on Matthew Fitzpatrick, Joaquin Niemann and Horschel earlier in the week.
With weather expected to play a key role, Sherman’s job becomes a little different this week as he factors in the impact across the market. Sharps hit the under on 10.5 for the winning score of the week, forcing Sherman to move the line to 11.5. That would normally be 14.5 in normal conditions, he said.
“It’s definitely taken into account in outrights as we look at good wind players,” he said. “We match some golfers up who fit better than looking just at their proximity to each other. On Saturday and Sunday, you can expect to see better wind players matched against each other rather than players they’re close to on the scoreboard.”