Updated 2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds & 7 Picks for Jon Rahm, Hideki Matsuyama, More

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After a thrilling two months of golf to start 2022, we’ve reached the first big one.

One of the best fields of the year has ascended to TPC Sawgrass for THE PLAYERS Championship, which presents the largest purse of the season at $20,000,000. It is the players’ tournament, after all.

Golf’s “fifth major” will present a stern test this week in Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla., as it appears Mother Nature is not going to cooperate with players. There’s rain in the forecast throughout Thursday and Friday, and even some during Saturday.

With golf’s best in the field this week, some bigger-than-normal numbers are available. Our GolfBet staff has combed the boards and identified its favorite bets for this week.

Check out their picks below.

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2022 PLAYERS Championship Picks

Matt Fitzpatrick — Top 20 (+185)

Jason Sobel: Going back to the proverbial well here after Fitzpatrick posted strong weekend numbers (compared with the field, at least) to finish T9 at Bay Hill. He was similarly T9 at last year’s edition of THE PLAYERS, which underscores the main reason we should continue backing him: He literally does everything well.

Fitzpatrick ranks second (behind Morikawa, ahead of Jon Rahm) in total strokes gained so far this season. On a track that tests all parts of a player’s game, being proficient across the board seems like a nice place to start looking for contenders.

I’ll admit that a top-20 pick is very conservative here — with the best number coming via PointsBet, as of Tuesday night — so don’t be scared to get a little more aggressive if you wish.

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Update: Matsuyama withdrew from the tournament early on Thursday morning.

Hideki Matsuyama +3000

Chris Murphy: The current Masters champion has been one of the best players in the world this new season, with two wins under his belt already. Now, he’s rolling into a swing of events that he has a history of success.

Matsuyama quietly had the third best round of the final round last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where his 2-under 70 bested the field average by more than five shots. He finished T20, but it was a continuation of his overall great play that has me buying his prospects this week at TPC Sawgrass.

Hideki gained 6.3 strokes on the field tee to green last week, with 4.8 of those coming on approach. He only fell short of the field with his putter, but that is nothing new for the Japanese star.

His fate frequently depends on the play of his flatstick, and that has been the case for him at THE PLAYERS too. The two years he has gained strokes putting at this event he has two top-10 finishes and with his form coming in tee to green we just need that putter to cooperate in order to have him in the mix for a win over the weekend.

The golf gods seem to owe him one after he stormed out to a 9-under 63 before this event was canceled after just one round in 2020. That just adds to the positive mojo he has going in 2022. Matsuyama is a great fit for this event and at +3000 odds he’s a nice buy to win his first PLAYERS Championship.

Jon Rahm +1200

Matt Vincenzi: In his past 24 rounds, Rahm ranks first on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Since the calendar flipped to 2022, the Spaniard hasn’t finished outside of the top 21 in any of his six starts.

The problem with Rahm of late has been his short game. He has lost significant strokes putting and around the green in each of his past three starts.

Rahm has perennially been one of the most reliable players on TOUR around the green. In 112 measured starts in his career, he has gained an average of 0.9 strokes putting and 0.5 strokes around the green per event.

At a volatile golf course like TPC Sawgrass, it is even more important to target reliable ball strikers. To say Rahm’s ball striking has been great would be an incredible understatement. “Other worldly” would be more appropriate.

To put it in perspective, over his past 24 rounds Rahm has gained 53.6 strokes. The next best, Will Zalatoris, is at 37.3.I have faith the rest of his game will fall into place with some patience.

In his last two PLAYERS appearances, he finished 12th (2019) and ninth (2021). While both are solid, they’re also a bit deceiving.

In 2019, Jon Rahm was leading when he found a fairway bunker on the par-5 11th hole. Despite his caddie urging him to lay up, Rahm inexplicably went for the green and put the ball in the middle of the lake. Since then, his maturity has grown leaps and bounds which has led him to become the best player in the world.

In 2021, Rahm was in contention on Sunday but forced to play aggressively to catch up. His finishing position would’ve been better if his priority wasn’t winning events at this stage of his career.

Despite the randomness of the event, many of the best players in the history of the game have managed to rise to the top at the PLAYERS Championship. Rahm is in form and now has the experience at TPC Sawgrass to manage the golf course effectively.

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Daniel Berger +3400

Derek Farnsworth: There were some great finishing position numbers out there earlier in the week, but most of those have been gobbled up by sharp bettors. I can’t sit here and tout odds that are no longer available, so I will look to the outright market instead.

I am betting both Jon Rahm and Daniel Berger this week, but the latter slightly takes the cake as my best bet.

The best number that I’ve been able to find on Berger is +3400 on FanDuel. The last time we saw him, he blew a five-shot lead in the final round of the Honda Classic. While losing the lead stole the headlines, he racked up yet another high-end finish. In fact, he’s finished T11 or better in six of his last 11 starts on the PGA TOUR.

Other than TPC Southwind where he has won twice, I can’t think of a better course for Berger. He’s a very good total driver of the ball (distance and accuracy) and is first in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last eight months and since the start of 2021. He’s good around the greens and we know he has an affinity for Florida golf, having played at Florida State and now living in Jupiter.

The form is right where it needs to be and he has two top-10 finishes at THE PLAYERS in his career. His putter has been holding him back this year, but Bermuda grass is by far his best putting surface.

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Sergio Garcia, Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim & Paul Casey — All Top-40 (+2900)

Rob Bolton: You’d win a case that there are no “best bets” at THE PLAYERS Championship, but hoo boy, there is no shortage of opportunities to play this week. Make room in your schedule.

With all proper respect to TPC Sawgrass and the wicked weather in store, the smarter play would be to isolate notables who project to be on the wrong side of the draw – assuming there will be a wrong side – and invest in one missing the cut. That only 65 are guaranteed to cash and in one of the thickest fields anywhere are other reasons to turn a negative outcome into a positive.

However, when considering the objective to make the cut, and then to finish inside the top two-thirds of those who do, and THEN to gawk at the line for each of these four to be among them, I paused on this parlay found in “Golf Specials 3” at FanDuel.

Garcia and Fleetwood are in my Power Rankings at PGATOUR.com, so those guys are no-brainers for this prop.

Kim has been quietly and consistently strong enough to warrant the reach most weeks, but he’s a former winner at TPC Sawgrass (2017) and he finished T9 (in pleasant conditions) last year.

Casey also has a solid history here with three top 25s in his last four trips, but he has a solid history just about everywhere. If my Power Rankings was based solely on the unquantifiable attributes necessary to overcome the challenges presented to this field and on this course, he’d be in it.

Brian Harman — Top 10 (+1100)

Landon Sillinsky: Since THE PLAYERS was moved from May to March, Harman has finished T8 and T3 at TPC Sawgrass.

We know he can catch fire with his putter and that Bermuda is his favorite surface. However, it's been his ball-striking taking center stage of late, as the Georgia Bulldog ranks sixth in this field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball-Striking over his past eight rounds.

With the way he’s been hitting the ball, I will gladly take my chances that he posts his third consecutive top-10 here at 11-1.

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Will Zalatoris +5000

Bryan Berryman: It’s been incredibly frustrating watching Zalatoris play golf to start the year. He has been absolutely lights out tee to green, only to give it all back once he actually gets on the green. It’s been the story so far in his short career, and it could very well repeat itself again this weekend. However, I can’t look past the value in this number for how good the ball striking has been.

Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks third in this field in strokes gained approach, and fourth in strokes gained tee to green. Over the last 100 rounds, he’s second and sixth in those two categories. He’s too good of a fit for this course tee to green to not be considered at this lofty number.

Zalatoris is going to win, and it’s going to be soon. The only thing holding him back lately has been the putts inside of five feet, which I have to believe will eventually get figured out. I’m calling my shot here, and betting this is the week he breaks through for his first win.