2023 Genesis Scottish Open Best Bets: Picks for Keith Mitchell, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott & More

2023 Genesis Scottish Open Best Bets: Picks for Keith Mitchell, Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott & More article feature image

Via David Cannon/Getty Images. Pictured: Keith Mitchell of The United States plays his tee shot on the fourth hole during the second round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club on May 19, 2023 in Rochester, New York.

Our staff has analyzed the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open odds board and found their favorite picks for this week's co-sanctioned tournament between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour at The Renaissance Club in North Berwick, Scotland.

Below, our golf betting experts break down the players they're backing to win outright along with golfers they are fading and other best bets.

Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews for the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open, including picks for Jordan Spieth, Adam Scott, Tommy Fleetwood, Keith Mitchell & more.

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Favorites We’re Backing

Best Long Shot

  • Sobel:Robert MacIntyre
  • Murphy: Alex Noren
  • Vincenzi: Adam Scott
  • Aguiar: Thomas Detry

Biggest Bust

  • Sobel: Wyndham Clark
  • Murphy: Rory McIlroy
  • Vincenzi: Xander Schauffele
  • Aguiar: Viktor Hovland

Contrarian Player To Target

  • Sobel: Ludvig Aberg
  • Murphy: Alexander Bjork
  • Vincenzi: Corey Conners
  • Aguiar: Max Homa

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: There have been efforts over the years to determine the best links performers, but much like trying to figure out the top match-play competitors, our sample size amongst the top tier is probably too small to receive a perfectly accurate evaluation, especially for those who have only been playing professionally for fewer than 4-5 years.

All of which makes this week’s event doubly important.

I feel like the piece you’re reading right now could almost serve as sort of a two-week preview, which is to say: If you like a player for his links acumen this week, you should probably like him next week, too — and similarly, a fade for one is probably a fade for both.

Last year, four players who finished in the top 10 at the Genesis Scottish Open also finished in the top 10 at The Open, including winner of the former Xander Schauffele and the latter Cameron Smith, and seven were inside the top 25.

This trend might not help as much this week as next week, but it’s something to keep an eye on as we head toward the year’s final major championship.

Murphy: Links Golf is a different game, and over these next two weeks we will see some players crop up whom we didn’t necessarily expect.

We will also see some golfers who have been playing well in the states and hitting it well for an extended stretch who simply struggle to find their game while in Europe. I am ideally targeting a mixed bag of form and links success while also keeping a close eye on the wind and weather.

Aguiar: It is no secret to anyone that I favor the standard contests that will let me extract numbers in my preferred fashion of long-term information over the wishy-washy profiles inside my sheet on about half the field. I have never found these mixed-field tournaments to be overly conducive to building a bankroll. However, the real problem stems from the inability to get concrete answers because of the lack of trackable returns.

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2023 Genesis Scottish Open Best Bets

Sobel: Adam Scott +5000 (FanDuel)

While Tommy Fleetwood (+2200) and Tyrrell Hatton (+2500) were among my final eliminations in this category, I can’t resist Adam Scott at double the price, for a few different reasons.

The first is about form – and not simply that he’s striking the ball nicely, because quite frankly, he always does that. Other than a missed cut at the U.S. Open, the Aussie has quietly been trending in the right direction with five top-30 results in his last six starts, including three top 10s.

Over the past 18 months, it’s felt like Scott has been leading up to his next – and perhaps last? – big victory, though “big” might not solely be defined as a major championship.

Somewhat remarkably, he owns just two wins – the 2019 Australian PGA Championship and 2020 Genesis Invitational – in the past seven years, but just as the likes of Rickie Fowler and Jason Day have been rewarded for their patience and persistence, it feels like Scott is similarly due his just desserts for a hunger and attitude that some might’ve questioned at this point in his timeline.

After all, when you’re 43 (his birthday is – how ‘bout this for a narrative – this Sunday, just in time for the final round) and a Masters champion and have three young children at home and never felt the need to clog up the schedule with too many events even in your prime, it could be assumed that the back-nine of a career would be spent lounging on a massive pile of cash, rather than grinding away for future glory.

He’s either to be commended or chided, depending on your personal perspective, for not being lured to LIV Golf by Greg Norman, considering he fit the profile of so many others who made that move.

It’s impossible, though, to not praise him for racking up first-page-of-the-leaderboard finishes at tournaments like the Wells Fargo Championship and AT&T Byron Nelson, consolation prizes for a player who doesn’t need consolation prizes at this point of his career.

Then there’s the matter that while it’s difficult to rate the best links players with so few events among the world’s best, it’s hard to argue that Scott’s name shouldn’t be on that list. While the biggest regret of his career is certainly the four-bogey finish at Royal Lytham & St. Annes in 2012, he does own five top 10s and 10 top 25s at The Open.

For years, the theory – or part of it, at least – has been that his poor putting is mitigated by slower greens on these types of tracks. Well, surprise: He’s not putting poorly anymore. Scott ranks 36th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season and has gained strokes on the greens in each of his last eight starts.

This all adds up to great value for the price on a proven winner who should be due for that next success.

Murphy: Tommy Fleetwood +2200 (BetMGM)

My line at the top lists Tyrrell Hatton as the favorite I’m backing, and while that’s true, it’s really just based on him being at a bit shorter odds than Fleetwood, whom I have right alongside his fellow Englishman at top odds.

Tommy is the one who gets the edge here over Hatton from a course history standpoint, and there may be a bit of something to that as he seems to find comfort around this track with top-four finishes in two of his last three appearances.

We know he has shown great form of late with the heartbreaking playoff defeat in Canada and another top five at the U.S. Open.

These next two weeks are the ones that I will always have Fleetwood as a dangerous threat to win, and I like that we get him in the 20-under-par range on a course that he knows so well.

Vincenzi: Jordan Spieth +2500 (FanDuel)

While there have been some injury concerns over the past few months, I can’t help but take a chance on Jordan Spieth this week. The reports of a wrist injury date back to the PGA Championship, and the missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge the following week was undoubtedly concerning, but recent results lead me to believe he may be past it.

He finished fifth at the Memorial Tournament and gained 10.3 strokes from tee to green. At Muirfield Village, where ball-strikers reign supreme, I find it hard to believe he could finish in the top five with impressive statistics and a balky wrist.

Spieth is one of the most accomplished players in the field on links courses. The three-time major champion has won at Royal Birkdale and Chambers Bay and finished second at Royal St. George’s. He also played well at The Renaissance Club last year, finishing 10th and shooting first and third rounds of 68 and 66 before faltering on Sunday.

Spieth is another player who’s had an excellent season without a win to show for it. He has five top-five finishes in his past 11 starts, including a playoff loss at the RBC Heritage. Rickie Fowler won in his most recent start at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and I believe Spieth can one-up his good friend by getting it done at this week’s Genesis Scottish Open.

Aguiar: Keith Mitchell 66th or Better -120 (bet365)

We don't necessarily think of Keith Mitchell when it comes to players who are well-suited to succeed on a links-style venue. However, the data paints an intriguing picture when we look into his opportunity to take advantage of his statistical profile.

Mitchell ranked first in my model for Weighted Total Driving for the Renaissance Club, 17th in Projected Strokes Gained: Total in the wind, and the biggest connection here may be the 21st-place grade he received in Expected Strokes Gained at similar tracks.

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